Black Jack model for monte carlo simulations
 

I intend to do some sticky bonuses. I am aware that there are good formulas for setting targets, bet sizes etc, but I want to calculate EV and variance for a certain number of casinos using monte carlo simulations. This is very easy for roulette, it can even be done exactly.

But what about black jack? Is a p=0.49 chance of success for each bet a reasonable approximation or is a more advanced model neccessary?
I did not find anything about this using the search function.