Kicker wars.
 

BB is a TAG who has fairly decent standards in the blinds (and by decent I don't necessarily mean "good cards," just that he calls liberally and usually fairly well from the blinds). SB seems a bit on the loose side but nothing horrible, maybe 40% VPIP. BB and I have played HU and I don't think he's amazing, but he's definitely a winning player in 4+ handed matches. He has a tendency to donk the flop with draws into the PFR too often when checkraising would be more effective, and to bet weak made hands as well.

Folded to me OTB. I raise T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB calls, BB calls.

The flop is A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Check, BB bets. I raise. SB folds, BB calls.

Turn is the 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. BB bets. I raise. He 3-bets. I cap. He calls.

River is the 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. BB bets.

Raise or call? How close is it?

Re: Kicker wars.
 

at some point he has to give you credit for AA.

his calling range (that matters here) with SB in should be something like 95s, 96s, 97, 98, T9, J9, Q9, K9, A9, and pairs (including 22). would he 3-bet A9 3-way here or see a flop?

when he bet 3-bets the turn it looks like any hand with a 9 or 22, but once you cap he really should be giving you credit for AA/A9/K9/Q9/J9/T9. he should behave accordingly on the river.

without actually calculating anything - i'd say this is a call, and K9 would be a slim raise. i would call Q9.

Re: Kicker wars.
 

Well I think villain has a 9 like 95% + here.

Lets say he adds suited nines down to 95s because of SB's call.

Hands-

9c5c - 1
9c6c - 1
97 - 4
98 - 4
T9 - 3
J9 - 4
Q9 - 4
K9 - 4
A9 - 3

Ahead of 10, tied with 3, behind 15. Seems like a pretty easy call to me.

Re: Kicker wars.
 

No chance of him playing an ace this way?

Re: Kicker wars.
 

I highly doubt it based on the read Entity gave. I still think it's less than 5% of the time, though not impossible.

Even if you add in a few highly discounted ace combos, calling is still better.

Re: Kicker wars.
 

i like a call here. I'd probably raise K9 or Q9, but call with lower 9s.

Re: Kicker wars.
 

[ QUOTE ]
i'd say this is a call, and K9 would be a slim raise. i would call Q9.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think K9 would be that slim of a raise at all.

Re: Kicker wars.
 

I think villain has a 9. And I believe that translates to a call here.

I didn't get the impression from your read that villain is likely calling out of bb with 92-96.

I would be raising with Q9 too, not sure about J9.

Re: Kicker wars.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i'd say this is a call, and K9 would be a slim raise. i would call Q9.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think K9 would be that slim of a raise at all.

[/ QUOTE ]
it's all about what he thinks your cap means. i mean if he for some reason thinks you could totally overplay AK, then sure, it's not slim. but i would not lead J9 into you after you cap the turn.

once you capped the turn, he should realize you are surely going to value bet the river. so when he bets he should have a hand with which he wants to go more than one bet, because he could choose to go one bet by simply just checking and calling.

so i still think K9 is slim.