Going against the public
 

Not that is is a valid way to do it. But according to wagerling the public is HOT on

T.B
Oakland
Cinci
Atlanta
Indy

I track this for a few years and going against the crowd on games with heavy action on one side is still a 50/50 bet.

Still - I'd rather go against Joe Public then with him.

I'm still saying Minn at +5.5 (I got +6) is a good one. I'll lose by 30 or win by 3

Re: Going against the public
 

Im sure my brother who posts here will chime in as he has been looking over the public numbers for the past few weeks and has been doing quite well in betting gainst them.

Re: Going against the public
 

My system does great against the public but you really have to pick and choose. Blindly going against the public 3 years ago was a huge losing trend as the favs won many many times. The public was outstanding.

Re: Going against the public
 

It's a mixture of line movements AND fading the public. You need to really watch how the lines are moving especially closer to game time.

Re: Going against the public
 

I have a nice parlay card system (the kind from bars) that works nicely. Basically compare the Friday lines to the card lines. I have not used this much lately because of computers but 10-15 years ago it was sweet!

The only time you can really take advantage of line movements

Re: Going against the public
 

Anyone have a site that shows what games Joe Public is heavy on?

Re: Going against the public
 

[ QUOTE ]
You need to really watch how the lines are moving especially closer to game time.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does this tell you? The line was moving strong in favor of the Rams in week one. Does it mean you should fade the line move as well as the public?

Re: Going against the public
 

[ QUOTE ]
Blindly going against the public 3 years ago was a huge losing trend as the favs won many many times. The public was outstanding.

[/ QUOTE ]
Three yrs ago is when Roxy Roxboruogh (sp?) retired. For those who dont know who he is, he is the owner of Americas Line out of Vegas, he has been setting betting lines for the casinos for 30-40 years. Once he retired the offshores, Criss in particular started setting the lines and it was a major clusterfck for a while. Guys like me who bet dogs, and will always be against the public had a rough ride for awhile. There were even articles coming out of vegas at the time talking how the casino/sportsbook were getting drilled by the general public. I had heard they were taking a beating on those parlay cards that they put in the rooms at the time, you know when the parlay cards are beating you there is a problem with the lines.

They have since adjusted and i expect the gen public will continue losing as usual in the long haul.

Re: Going against the public
 

[ QUOTE ]
What does this tell you? The line was moving strong in favor of the Rams in week one. Does it mean you should fade the line move as well as the public?

[/ QUOTE ]
You should read through some of my old posts on this subject. The only line moves than mean anything are those when the line is first posted and in the last few minutes leading up to gametime. The only exception would be a major injury report that comes out. Other than that the line moves in between that time are the general public. However, if you "read between the lines" a lot of information is at your finger tips. If Pit is -3 lay 05 juice it may be a good indication the sportsbooks are baiting you to take Pit.

Sportsbooks are out to make money and it would be very hard to beleive that they dont have opinions on games themselves. I know small bookmakers who adjust lines to bait the public, why wouldn't the alrge sportsbook do it too. I have heard and i honestly do not know if it is true or not but i have heard that the casinos communicate with one another and will select certain games to bait the public to make money for the books. Like i said i dont know if it true but why wouldn't they? I would if i owned a sportsbook. When the general public looks at a line and you hear a large amount of people saying this line is ridiculous, or this is the lock of the year, etc, and the game goes down and averyone is saying how they cant beleive it yada yada, well the sportsbook may have set that game up and are laughing all the way to the bank. It is these situations I like to look for in a line. I want to be on the side of the sportsbook, becuase they always win.

Re: Going against the public
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have heard and i honestly do not know if it is true or not but i have heard that the casinos communicate with one another and will select certain games to bait the public to make money for the books. Like i said i dont know if it true but why wouldn't they? I would if i owned a sportsbook.

[/ QUOTE ]

And you'd be going to jail for it, too. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Going against the public
 

[ QUOTE ]
And you'd be going to jail for it, too.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why would i go to jail? Is their a governing body overseeing sportsbooks that i am unaware of? This isn't stock market.

Re: Going against the public
 

What I mean is that when a line is moving closer to game time, the juice usually moves with it. For example, let's say that before the last 2 monday night football games, I liked the under, the public liked the OVER. The book moved the line DOWN and moved the juice up on the UNDER, making it look more appealing for the bettors to take the over. Less juice, lower number.

If you watch the movements and fade them, so far this season im around 20-8. I've posted before about how I use ESPN Fantasy's PigSkin Pick'EM concensus charts to show who all of their 40,000 or so participants are picking AGAINST THE SPREAD. They also show them straight up.

Re: Going against the public
 

First let me explain what I mean when I say movement. My definition of line move is a bit different because I pay for Don Best Premium which does all the work for me. My DB voice announces major line moves. Their definition of a major line move is when $100,000 or more comes in at the same time to 5 or more casinos on the same game. So unless i hear that voice tell me it is a line move then in my eyes there is no line move. What your speaking about is adjustments in the line that haapen quite often but don't necesarily mean anything except that in your example they may mean something and that goes back to my other post about looking for the sportsbook baiting the action.

Re: Going against the public
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why would i go to jail? Is their a governing body overseeing sportsbooks that i am unaware of? This isn't stock market.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some people might consider calling your competitors and agreeing on a specific line to be price fixing, which is a criminal antitrust violation.

Re: Going against the public
 

Since I have never read any of your posts, and have not got a fix on your humor i will assume you are joking. Although their was not a smilly moticon thing at the end so I am not sure.

Re: Going against the public
 

[ QUOTE ]
Since I have never read any of your posts, and have not got a fix on your humor i will assume you are joking. Although their was not a smilly moticon thing at the end so I am not sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely not joking, not sure why you would think I was. What if I changed a few of the words in your original post:

[ QUOTE ]
I have heard and i honestly do not know if it is true or not but i have heard that the casinos communicate with one another and will select certain dates to raise prices on rooms to make money for the casinos. Like i said i dont know if it true but why wouldn't they? I would if i owned a casino.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's the difference between fixing prices on a game or a hotel room?

Re: Going against the public
 

You are in contention for the homer trophy.

Re: Going against the public
 

Let me explain something. This is sports betting with sportsbooks that can do whatever they like. By adjusting the line to bait the public they are in a sense expressing an opinion on who they think will win that game and take a gamble that they can bait the public to go with the loser. They are not fixing games, that would in fact be illegal. Your argument is completely sensless and IMO if your this blind to what they can and most likely will do then continue betting the favorites and learn nothing from what i have said. Do you think every sportsbook sets their own lines? The answer is no. Someone is hired and paid extremely well to set the opening line. If that person knows so much that he is able to set a las vegas/offshore betting line then that person has a lot of knowledge about sports, betting and setting lines. With that said do you really think that person does not have an advantage? Is it not his job to make the casinos money? It seems very logical that what i am saying is true. And I can tell you that I think it happens, it makes perfect sense and it is most definately not illegal. It has nothing to do with setting prices on hotels which is probably the silliest argument you could make.

Re: Going against the public
 

mrbaseball - remember - I'm talking about parlay cards from bars where the local guy sets a point spread and he is stuck with it.

For instance - "A" vs. "B" A is -3 on Monday and by the time friday coems around all the major online books have the game at "A" -1.5. This would be a play on "B" +3.

I figured that the card was the dumb money spreads and by the time Friday came around and injuries and so forth took effect the smart money had tweaked the line. The problem was getting 2 or more plays where their was a big enough difference.

Re: Going against the public
 

[ QUOTE ]
Let me explain something. This is sports betting with sportsbooks that can do whatever they like. By adjusting the line to bait the public they are in a sense expressing an opinion on who they think will win that game and take a gamble that they can bait the public to go with the loser. They are not fixing games, that would in fact be illegal. Your argument is completely sensless and IMO if your this blind to what they can and most likely will do then continue betting the favorites and learn nothing from what i have said. Do you think every sportsbook sets their own lines? The answer is no. Someone is hired and paid extremely well to set the opening line. If that person knows so much that he is able to set a las vegas/offshore betting line then that person has a lot of knowledge about sports, betting and setting lines. With that said do you really think that person does not have an advantage? Is it not his job to make the casinos money? It seems very logical that what i am saying is true. And I can tell you that I think it happens, it makes perfect sense and it is most definately not illegal. It has nothing to do with setting prices on hotels which is probably the silliest argument you could make.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, chill dude. I never said it was illegal for books to set a line that has an advantage over the public. That's their job. I was simply responding to the notion that sportsbooks call each other up and agree on a line. Agreeing on a price with your competitors is indeed a crime, regardless of whether it's basketballs, shoes, maid services, or in this case, gambling.

Re: Going against the public
 

In regards to slacker - I'm pretty sure there are no "traps" as some people like to say. However - I am sure that books set the lines to their advantage and knowing the public likes certain set-ups and trends. This tweaks the line by a little but if a persaon see's a like and it's 4 or 5 more then he expects - it's not a trap play - it's just that John Public is missing something. Sure - the book might add or subtract 1 but they would be foolish to really gamble on an obscure and bizaar line.

Like This.
 

http://www.bargainranch.com/images/lines.gif

Re: Going against the public
 

[ QUOTE ]
If Pit is -3 lay 05 juice it may be a good indication the sportsbooks are baiting you to take Pit.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's an indication that they are getting action on the dog, but rather than change a 3 pt line to 2 1/2 and risk pushing their underdog action while losing the fav bets if Pit wins by 3, they change the juice to accomplish the same thing (getting action on Pit) without changing the line.

Re: Going against the public
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was simply responding to the notion that sportsbooks call each other up and agree on a line.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok so I didn't word it correctly, but they all hire the same guy to set the lines.

[ QUOTE ]
Agreeing on a price with your competitors is indeed a crime, regardless of whether it's basketballs, shoes, maid services, or in this case, gambling.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your giving me a headache.

Re: Going against the public
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure there are no "traps" as some people like to say

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you are wrong about this. Just my opinion.

Re: Going against the public
 

[ QUOTE ]
In regards to slacker - I'm pretty sure there are no "traps" as some people like to say.

[/ QUOTE ]
I just want to ad something then i gotta run. We both have our opinions on this and without actual proof we will never have anything more than an opinion. But, my point is this, i think it is completely illogical to assume that there is this company/guy who sets the lines, he is paid for setting the lines and his job description is simple, make the sportsbooks money and he is not setting up traps.

Re: Going against the public
 

Why would each casino hire a different guy when 99% of the casinos all have the same lines.

Not arguing - just curious. I don't live in LV but most online books are basically the same. Seems redundant.

Re: Going against the public
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why would each casino hire a different guy when 99% of the casinos all have the same lines.

[/ QUOTE ]
Where did you get that from? I never said the casinos hire a dif guy to set lines. They hire one company and for 40 years it was Americas Line out of LV which was owned by Roxy Roxborough (sp?). The opening lines are now set by Cris Sportsbook.

While running my errands I made a call to a friend in LV who runs one of the larger sportsbooks in town at a major casino. Not that i needed to ask this question becuase I new his answer but I asked him if he thought the oddsmakers set trap games, his answer was, of course they do. Take it for what its worth.

Re: Going against the public
 

all the lines are set by the LVSC (Las Vegas Sports Consultants). its a group of about 5 guys who sit there all day and figure out the lines. it was on sportscenter last year when they had their 5 day series on gambling. as far as i know, these are the only guys who set the lines, and then from there the movements for each individual book change based on the money coming in.

edit: after getting more info, LVSC was founded by Roxborough. they are contracted out by the books to set the lines independently.

http://www.lvsc.com/index2.html

google cache of about.com article

Re: Going against the public
 

[ QUOTE ]
all the lines are set by the LVSC (Las Vegas Sports Consultants). its a group of about 5 guys who sit there all day and figure out the lines. it was on sportscenter last year when they had their 5 day series on gambling. as far as i know, these are the only guys who set the lines, and then from their the movements for each individual book change based on the money coming in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you are correct. It use to be americas line which I believe went out of business once roxy retired or they changed the name.

Re: Going against the public
 

OK - that is what I THOUGHT! Still - what is your difination of a trap. I call it a line more of 1 to 1.5 not 7 as most people think.

I hear people saying that game is -6.5 when it should be -1 there trying to trap us!!

I say their traps are not as obvious. Add a point here and ther for home favs an so forth.