KC +1.5 at home vs SD??
 

are the chargers the sucker bet of the week or what? they beat the colts and now they are road favs vs a monster home team?

Re: KC +1.5 at home vs SD??
 

I like KC in this one.

Re: KC +1.5 at home vs SD??
 

I like the Chargers in this one. The Chargers won the last game 28-20 but that was about the closest that game ever was. Combine that with the fact that the Chargers still have something to play for while the Chiefs are out of the playoffs barring a longshot combination of games coming in.

The Chiefs have a December home game winning streak on the line but I don't think that is enough to get them past the Chargers this weekend.

Re: KC +1.5 at home vs SD??
 

When they played in SD, KC was +5.5 according to our DB. If the line was correct, then KC should be a half-point favorite in this game. Once again, that is assuming the line was accurate.

So, SD winning by 8 last game is not a big enough reason to think that they will cover 1.5 on the road.

Also, I don't know what you mean when you say "that was the closest it ever was" (referring to the score). The final score is what matters. A 5.5 point fav covering by 2.5 is not a big deal.

craig

Re: KC +1.5 at home vs SD??
 

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When they played in SD, KC was +5.5 according to our DB. If the line was correct, then KC should be a half-point favorite in this game. Once again, that is assuming the line was accurate.


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Things change during the season in the NFL. Would Indy have been a 10 point dog to Seattle 4 weeks ago? I don't think so. Obviously that is an extreme example. The point is, just because the line was 5.5 in SD doesn't mean it should be PK or better for KC now.

I'm not saying KC is a bad pick, though - and wouldn't be surprised to be betting them myself soon.

Re: KC +1.5 at home vs SD??
 

I didn't really make my point. My point was that SD winning by 8 at home when they were 5.5 favs, is not that big of a deal. The person I had responded to had pointed out that they won 28-20. I wanted to just point out that it wasn't a big deal. Divisional rivals at home tend to play a little closer than other games.

Also, if this game was played after the SD/MIA game (where SD lost at home) what would the spread be? Has much changed between the two teams when they met in OCT?

craig

Re: KC +1.5 at home vs SD??
 

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I didn't really make my point. My point was that SD winning by 8 at home when they were 5.5 favs, is not that big of a deal. The person I had responded to had pointed out that they won 28-20. I wanted to just point out that it wasn't a big deal. Divisional rivals at home tend to play a little closer than other games.


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Okay. No it doesn't mean a whole lot - but it should count for something.
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Also, if this game was played after the SD/MIA game (where SD lost at home) what would the spread be? Has much changed between the two teams when they met in OCT?

craig

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I'm not qualified to answer that question.

Re: KC +1.5 at home vs SD??
 

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I like the Chargers in this one. The Chargers won the last game 28-20 but that was about the closest that game ever was. Combine that with the fact that the Chargers still have something to play for while the Chiefs are out of the playoffs barring a longshot combination of games coming in.

The Chiefs have a December home game winning streak on the line but I don't think that is enough to get them past the Chargers this weekend.

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I think it's silly to argue the first game score has that strong of a positive correlation on the 2nd game, but if you are, assigning 3 points for home (from neutral) is not really the best way to translate home advantage.

In a normal game, giving 3 points to 2 equally skilled teams translates to about a 8% money line swing toward the home team. If you the road team is now the home team, they get about a 16% advantage from the previous matchup. Since an 8 point win translate to about a 75% winning percentage for SD, SD s/b expected to win game 2 about 59% of the time. 59% equates to about a SD -3 point spread, so on that basis SD -1.5 is a "bargain".

Of course, this assumes game 1's result is positively correlated to game 2.

Re: KC +1.5 at home vs SD??
 

i smashed the under at 49, and still have vague sexual feelings for the number at 48 too

rain rain go away