Sometimes I just do and don\'t know why
 

2/5 blinds at the wynn, My first week of no-limit play. I have 900 behind villain has 1500.

Villain is the strongest player at the table, a better player than me.

Preflop:

I raise $20 in the cutoff with T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Villain in the big blind makes it $40 total.

I call so there are two to the flop with $82 in the pot.

Flop:

5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain bets $60 I ask "how deep are you" and then call. Pot has $202.

Turn:

is 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain bets $200, I raise the rest of my chips. So there is $602 in the pot and I raise $600 more.

I am no expert at no-limit and just wanted to get some critique of my play at any point in the hand. I don't know why I raised all my chips on the turn it just kind of felt right. I am viewed at the table as a TAG with great image. I have only show down premium hands.

Re: Sometimes I just do and don\'t know why
 

Doesn't look too bad to me, assuming he has TPGK you have a lot of fold equity, you also have 14 outs on the river (less if he has a set or 2 pair). This is essentially a battle of the blinds.

Re: Sometimes I just do and don\'t know why
 

[ QUOTE ]
2/5 blinds at the wynn, My first week of no-limit play. I have 900 behind villain has 1500.

Villain is the strongest player at the table, a better player than me.

Preflop:

I raise $20 in the cutoff with T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Villain in the big blind makes it $40 total.

I call so there are two to the flop with $82 in the pot.

Flop:

5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain bets $60 I ask "how deep are you" and then call. Pot has $202.

Turn:

is 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain bets $200, I raise the rest of my chips. So there is $602 in the pot and I raise $600 more.

I am no expert at no-limit and just wanted to get some critique of my play at any point in the hand. I don't know why I raised all my chips on the turn it just kind of felt right. I am viewed at the table as a TAG with great image. I have only show down premium hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's gutsy and it looks like he's on an overpair.

you need to do the math quickly in your head and decide if he's willing to fold his overpair often enough to make your likely 14 out semibluff profitable. i'd estimate the answer is yes, but you need to do it yourself to answer your question.

fim

Re: Sometimes I just do and don\'t know why
 

well, your defenatly not ahead at this point, but you are representing a very big hand and that all in makes it very hard for him to call, meaning you will probaly take this one down a lot. He could have an over pair (probably)or 2 pair (unlikly) so, even if he does call you have 11 outs (assuming that if you hit another 9 you are good) so i think that it is a ballsy but a good strong play assuming that you do have a good table immage.

Re: Sometimes I just do and don\'t know why
 

I think I like it, your fold equity is probably more than enough here against anything but a set and aces. Does his min-raise preflop tell you anything about his hand based on previous actions by him?

Re: Sometimes I just do and don\'t know why
 

I like it and am reminded once again why I play 50$NL.

Re: Sometimes I just do and don\'t know why
 

standard [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Sometimes I just do and don\'t know why
 

QQ-AA occurs 85% of the time and he calls 50% and folds 50%

Calls

EV = $1802*.304 + $0*.696 = $612.68

Folds

EV = $1202*1 = $1202

QQ-AA EV is $1202*.5 + $612.68*.5 = $907.34


JJ occurs15% and he calls 100% and folds 0% (Too high? Should JJ = 7.5%, AK = 7.5%, QQ-AA = 85%)

Calls

EV = $1802*.152+$0*.848 = $273.90

Folds

EV = $1202

JJ EV is $273.90 * 1 +$1202 * 0 = $273.90


Total EV = $907.34*.85 + $273.90*.15 = $812.35, So I lose $87.68 if he calls 50% of the time.


Now if he calls 25% and folds 75% with QQ-AA and still calls 100% of the time with JJ

QQ-AA EV is $1202*.75 + $612.68*.25 = $1054.67, So I gain $154.67

Total EV = $1054.67 * .85 + $273.90 * .15 = $937.56, So I gain $37.56

Calculating the QQ-AA call fold ratio to break even

Total EV = [$1202*X + $612.68*(1-X)]*.85 + [$273.90]*.15 = 0

X = .689, So if I estimate that he will fold call 31.1% of the time or less I should move my money into the middle of the pot. I was surprised how close it was either way. Even if he calls 100% of the time I only lose $338.14. This analysis also doesn’t take into account that I don’t think that he would play JJ in this way. I doubt he would be betting the pot on a draw less board on the flop and turn with the nuts, but maybe. I would appreciate any feedback on my analysis.

Re: Sometimes I just do and don\'t know why
 

[ QUOTE ]
QQ-AA occurs 85% of the time and he calls 50% and folds 50%

Calls

EV = $1802*.304 + $0*.696 = $612.68

Folds

EV = $1202*1 = $1202

QQ-AA EV is $1202*.5 + $612.68*.5 = $907.34


JJ occurs15% and he calls 100% and folds 0% (Too high? Should JJ = 7.5%, AK = 7.5%, QQ-AA = 85%)

Calls

EV = $1802*.152+$0*.848 = $273.90

Folds

EV = $1202

JJ EV is $273.90 * 1 +$1202 * 0 = $273.90


Total EV = $907.34*.85 + $273.90*.15 = $812.35, So I lose $87.68 if he calls 50% of the time.


Now if he calls 25% and folds 75% with QQ-AA and still calls 100% of the time with JJ

QQ-AA EV is $1202*.75 + $612.68*.25 = $1054.67, So I gain $154.67

Total EV = $1054.67 * .85 + $273.90 * .15 = $937.56, So I gain $37.56

Calculating the QQ-AA call fold ratio to break even

Total EV = [$1202*X + $612.68*(1-X)]*.85 + [$273.90]*.15 = 0

X = .689, So if I estimate that he will fold call 31.1% of the time or less I should move my money into the middle of the pot. I was surprised how close it was either way. Even if he calls 100% of the time I only lose $338.14. This analysis also doesn’t take into account that I don’t think that he would play JJ in this way. I doubt he would be betting the pot on a draw less board on the flop and turn with the nuts, but maybe. I would appreciate any feedback on my analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come again?

Re: Sometimes I just do and don\'t know why
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does his min-raise preflop tell you anything about his hand based on previous actions by him?

[/ QUOTE ]

We had only had a few orbits at this time together. I found that he was a strong player later. At the time I put him on AA. I think any other hand he would have made a larger preflop raise.