Re: Ugly Bubble situation
 

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Remember in order for me to not make the money the placing needs to go Shorty, 2ndStack, Me ... any of the other 5 combinations results in either 3rd place money or a double-up. The raiser likely has a very wide range here, and my hand isn't great but should stand up rather well against a random hand and a loose push.

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I've lost in similar situations before when I pushed a Q T x flop with ATo, and shorty was all in, figured there was no way I could lose to both, as surely both wouldn't have a Q? They didn't, big stack did though, and shorty had T9o and hit a 9 on the river. Hey ho!

Re: Ugly Bubble situation
 

I think your play was good. Playing for third in your situation makes sense, you just had bad luck.
Seems like Big Stack was a good player, not giving you any chance to push 2nd stack.

Re: Ugly Bubble situation
 

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Not pushing the KTs is horrible, in my opinion. The ATo is closer, and the KQo will be called for sure.

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The KT push is almost certainly very -EV from an ICM standpoint. Remember the Bigstack is in the blind and will call quite liberally getting better than 2-1. The only question is if this is a time to throw ICM out the window.

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I ran it through SNGPT and it comes out as a clear push. Same with KQo. Those are the only spots I see where you may have been able to make a move.

Re: Ugly Bubble situation
 

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Not pushing the KTs is horrible, in my opinion. The ATo is closer, and the KQo will be called for sure.

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The KT push is almost certainly very -EV from an ICM standpoint. Remember the Bigstack is in the blind and will call quite liberally getting better than 2-1. The only question is if this is a time to throw ICM out the window.

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I ran it through SNGPT and it comes out as a clear push. Same with KQo. Those are the only spots I see where you may have been able to make a move.

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From SNGPT:
The KQ hand with the BB calling anytwo yeilds an EV of -3.1% not exactly what I would call a clear push.

The KT hand comes down to whether the BB will call as often as he should give the pot odds he is getting. If he will call with only Any Pair/Any Ace any Broadway then it is basically breakeven ICM-wise which is good enough for me in a spot like this. But that range has him calling about 20% of the time and I just don't see this guy folding 4 times out of 5. Certainly looking back on it, it was probably my best chance to do something.

Re: Ugly Bubble situation
 

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Not pushing the KTs is horrible, in my opinion. The ATo is closer, and the KQo will be called for sure.

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Re: Ugly Bubble situation
 

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From SNGPT:
The KQ hand with the BB calling anytwo yeilds an EV of -3.1% not exactly what I would call a clear push.

The KT hand comes down to whether the BB will call as often as he should give the pot odds he is getting. If he will call with only Any Pair/Any Ace any Broadway then it is basically breakeven ICM-wise which is good enough for me in a spot like this. But that range has him calling about 20% of the time and I just don't see this guy folding 4 times out of 5. Certainly looking back on it, it was probably my best chance to do something.

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He won't call with any two.. look

Seat 6: HERO ( $1120 )
Seat 5: BB ( $2870 )

Thus BB has 2470 as he's put 400 into the blind. To call your push is virtually half his stack.. do you really think he does this just because of pot odds? Unless he's a donk, then he would realise it's -$EV despite being +chipEV to do so.

Re: Ugly Bubble situation
 

Nottom, it's easy for people to say in retrospect that folding KTs was terrible. I think that it was the prudent thing to do. You were UTG and if the two bigstacks were at all loose, it would have been a very bad move.

I would've been tempted to go with the AT even though the 2nd stack had min-raised. Again, very close but given his raising range (any two if he has a brain) I might've gone with it.

My only real problem with your play was the last hand. As someone else pointed out, clearly your strategy was to let the shorty bust. He would've been all-in again the next hand pre-flop, so I really don't like your play there.

Those spots suck though and we all know it. I'd be interested to see the numbers on the AT hand vs. an "any two" raise from the 2nd stack.

Re: Ugly Bubble situation
 

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Nottom, it's easy for people to say in retrospect that folding KTs was terrible. I think that it was the prudent thing to do. You were UTG and if the two bigstacks were at all loose, it would have been a very bad move.

I would've been tempted to go with the AT even though the 2nd stack had min-raised. Again, very close but given his raising range (any two if he has a brain) I might've gone with it.

My only real problem with your play was the last hand. As someone else pointed out, clearly your strategy was to let the shorty bust. He would've been all-in again the next hand pre-flop, so I really don't like your play there.

Those spots suck though and we all know it. I'd be interested to see the numbers on the AT hand vs. an "any two" raise from the 2nd stack.

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Re: Ugly Bubble situation
 

The thing about the KTs hand is that your M is only 2. By winning those blinds and antes you actually have a shot at winning first. With this 1 pot, you can start putting pressure on the second stack because of the microstack and actually have a shot at building a stack here. Once you post the BB next hand it's over, you have to hope you get a hand and try to fold into the money.

Not pushing the KTs is horrible.

Re: Ugly Bubble situation
 

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From SNGPT:
The KQ hand with the BB calling anytwo yeilds an EV of -3.1% not exactly what I would call a clear push.

The KT hand comes down to whether the BB will call as often as he should give the pot odds he is getting. If he will call with only Any Pair/Any Ace any Broadway then it is basically breakeven ICM-wise which is good enough for me in a spot like this. But that range has him calling about 20% of the time and I just don't see this guy folding 4 times out of 5. Certainly looking back on it, it was probably my best chance to do something.

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He won't call with any two.. look

Seat 6: HERO ( $1120 )
Seat 5: BB ( $2870 )

Thus BB has 2470 as he's put 400 into the blind. To call your push is virtually half his stack.. do you really think he does this just because of pot odds? Unless he's a donk, then he would realise it's -$EV despite being +chipEV to do so.

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I'd call with probably half my hands or more there. I don't consider myself a donk.