Hmm live AKs hand
 

This hand took place on the June Vegas trip. There is an important concept here that might not get touched on enough. I hope that it will push conventional micro thinking a bit.

The scene is the Wynn on a Thursday night. The game is not very good but I'm drunk and having a good time. I have not been playing many hands because the cards have been cold. I have also missed a few flops with big cards so I might appear weak at this point. The stakes are 4/8. By "not very good" I mean that play is reasonably tight and passive. I tend to like laggier games better so my perception could be off. I have a read on the villian but I will create a few scenarios here.

Wynn 4/8 Las Vegas (9 handed)

Dealer starts her deal and the first card lands face up...it is the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Hero finds A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG.

We raise and everyone folds to the BB who makes it 3-bets. We call.

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

The big blind bets and we call.

Turn: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

The big blind bets. What is our play when...

A) The villian is a typical ho-hum player (not fishy but not great).

B) The villian is very good. At least as good as you are and views you as an overly tight (maybe weak) TAG.

I have some thoughts here that may or may not be correct. I feel like there is an interesting dynamic here though. Any comments appreciated as always.

Brad

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

keep the loser coming. call the turn, raise the river if you think he will pay-off. if he doesnt then call. one bet is going into the river no matter how it goes.

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

I'd be tempted to raise on the turn.

The 3-bet preflop seems to indicate a solid pocket pair, and since one ace was burned, he's discounting the possibility that Hero might have held onto another one.

He's got KK-99. Raise.

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

i'll raise the semi-fishy guy who'll pay off whatever he has.

i'll let Mr. Goodguy keep betting into me as a raise here will fold him.

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

scenario

a) I would raise the turn. If he has a hand that we beat but still a good hand (like KK, AQ, etc) he will more likely call us on the turn and river. But he might be too afraid to bet the river again with e.g. KK and just check/call, so we would lose one bet.

There are few hands he could have (and beat us) with which he would 3-bet us.

b) I would call the turn again and raise on the river.
I don't want him to fold his WB hand to a turnraise and I don't want him to put a move on me because he thinks I am weak. I think that he reraises the river would be highly unlike without trip aces (and one ace is already dead).

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

Raise the river for (b) and I don't think it's close.

Raise turn for (a).

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the river for (b) and I don't think it's close.

Raise turn for (a).

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

[ QUOTE ]


He's got KK-99. Raise.

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If he's good then this makes no sense. If he has got one of these hands then he's probably going to fold and we win the least, but if he's got us beat with a set or a 2pair then he's going to reraise and we're going to have the worst of it.

A good player I'm calling and raising the river and folding to a 3bet. A bad player I'm going to raise the Turn.

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

Can I raise the flop against the very good player? Can I also raise TT on this flop? Sounds like a plan.

-DeathDonkey

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

Question (just curiosity): did the dealer burn the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or did SB fold it?

Question #2 (or actually an observation): you didn't cap preflop with AKs because you were HU, or because you knew there was a dead ace?

As to the questions, I raise A), now, expecting to be checked to and bet the river. For B) I call the turn and raise the river. In both cases I call a villan river-raise; I'm actually more likely to call B than A...I think if ho-hum c/r's you that's a pretty good indicator that he's got top-pair beat, but if Mr. Good 3-bets you it may be a play (remember, he might view you as weak).

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

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A good player I'm calling and raising the river and folding to a 3bet.

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"Good" villan views us as weak, remember. And, I think if we put a play on that has us folding TPTK on the river, he's right. I want to show this down; if you can't call the 3-bet, you shouldn't be raising.

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

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Can I raise the flop against the very good player? Can I also raise TT on this flop? Sounds like a plan.

-DeathDonkey

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[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

Grunch. I've played my last several thousand hands at the party "beginner" .50/1 tables, so I'm not used to playing against "very good" (or even reasonable) players, so take this with a grain of salt . . .

[ QUOTE ]

A) The villian is a typical ho-hum player (not fishy but not great).


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Raise for value. If we get 3-bet, we can re-evaluate (would villan 3-bet PF with lowish suited connectors?).

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B) The villian is very good. At least as good as you are and views you as an overly tight (maybe weak) TAG.


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I would raise here again. I actually think there is a better chance that this guy has two pair or something, since he might have been setting up a play on the flop. On the other hand, a 3-bet might be a bluff to push a weak-tight player off the flop. So I would call a 3-bet and check/call the river.

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

Against a typical fishy player I think he's likely donking a weak ace into me or is on a bluff. I think I raise the turn, as I'm going to get paid off by a weaker ace on the turn and river, and he's likely check/folding the river anyways if he's on a bluff.

Against a good player I just call down, bet the river if checked to. He's less likely to pay off a raise with a hand that we beat. But I'm kind of puss like that.

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Grunch. I've played my last several thousand hands at the party "beginner" .50/1 tables, so I'm not used to playing against "very good" (or even reasonable) players, so take this with a grain of salt . . .

[ QUOTE ]

A) The villian is a typical ho-hum player (not fishy but not great).


[/ QUOTE ]
Raise for value. If we get 3-bet, we can re-evaluate (would villan 3-bet PF with lowish suited connectors?).

[ QUOTE ]

B) The villian is very good. At least as good as you are and views you as an overly tight (maybe weak) TAG.


[/ QUOTE ]
I would raise here again. I actually think there is a better chance that this guy has two pair or something, since he might have been setting up a play on the flop. On the other hand, a 3-bet might be a bluff to push a weak-tight player off the flop. So I would call a 3-bet and check/call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Same disclaimers, since I've been playing similarly unsophisticated players; but the more I think about it, the more I think that a turn raise is the right move regardless of Villain's quality.

Would Villain have 3-bet preflop with A7/A6/A4? 44/66? 85? In a 9-handed game, now heads-up with the previous raiser? I can see a maniac doing this, but neither description of Villain fits the maniac mold. With three rags on the board, and TPTK in our hand, I've got to think we're in the lead.

One step further... what is he putting us on? We raised preflop, but didn't cap; so we had a decent hand, but one that needed to improve. We didn't show any postflop aggression, which furthers his perspective that we're not holding an ace. He views us as weak-tight, so he's not concerned that we would have raised with A7/66/etc.

I can see the rationale for calling the turn and possibly raising the river. But I don't see him throwing his hand away; he'll suspect that we have an ace, but that suspicion is probably not strong enough to make him fold.

Hmmmmmm indeed
 

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Raise the river for (b) and I don't think it's close.

Raise turn for (a).

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I feel like the converse is true. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

I'm honestly shocked that almost everyone in micros thinks differently then I do. I feel like...

A) This spot is more complex then it appears.

B) Is the Gerber baby an idiot? (Okay this is true but we are talking with-in the context of this hand)

Everyone knows how I feel about waiting to raise in these types of spots, but I feel very strongly that we should raise right now against a good player...

What are some good things that come from raising right now? Why should we wait? What is better?

Brad

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

[ QUOTE ]

A) The villian is a typical ho-hum player (not fishy but not great).

B) The villian is very good. At least as good as you are and views you as an overly tight (maybe weak) TAG.


[/ QUOTE ]

my 2 cents on each scenario:

A) The 3 betting range of a "ho-hum" villain is pretty easy to guess IMO. We're probably way ahead here. This villain probably doesn't think of you as weak tight, since he doesn't really think too much about you at all. I like raising the turn here, since I think "ho-hum" villains have a dificult time throwing away pocket under pairs higher than eights. Also, I think this villain is much more likely to check the river if you call him on the turn.

B) This villain probably does notice how you've played your earlier hands, and a raise on the turn would send an under pair in the muck quite often IMO. I think a lot of good players in this spot will think you don't have an ace when you don't raise the turn, and will probably bet out on the river as well. I like waiting to the river to raise against this villain.

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

Oy, I'm a moron... what happens to the card that lands face up? Is it just dead? You wouldn't have told us if it was reshuffled into the deck, so I assume so.

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

Oy... tough question:

A) Raise right now, they're sucked in already, I think.

B) He'll check-call the river here, so you have to raise hte turn. If he folds, that's alright, he probably won't be able to do it once he's seen that ace hit the felt before the deal.

Jees man, I could be WAY wrong here.

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

B) If the villian is very good and views us as weak tight, then he should recognize that we have a big ace when we call the flop. He knows there is very little chance that we have anything else, since there are no draws on the flop. We would have already folded anything else.

He doesn't have AQs or AJs because he will fold those dominated hands against your preflop raise.

Villian probably has AK here. So just call it down.

Edit: He wouldn't fold AQs / AJs from the BB. But he isn't raising them preflop. Villain is only going to raise with group 1 hands from the BB.

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

We pretty much have the nuts here as neither of these Villain would 3 bet with Ax.

So the question is do you raise the turn, or wait to raise the river?

Against average player raise the turn as he is unlikely to fold a weaker hand. Especially since he knows that an A is already gone, this will give him more reasons to call.

Against a good thinking player wait til the river as he may fold KK or worse on the turn. This is even more true if he perceives you as weak tight (due to all the missed flops that you had to fold), or unsophisticated.

If your table image was different (say more aggressive and tricky), I might prefer raising the turn vs a good player as he might think you are trying to push him off a high pair, given that an A is already gone.

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

If villain sees us as weak tight, he might try to bully us with AQs, preflop. I would not discount AQs completely.

With only 1 A left in the deck, I guess it does not make a much of a difference though.

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

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He's got KK-99. Raise.

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If he's good then this makes no sense. If he has got one of these hands then he's probably going to fold and we win the least, but if he's got us beat with a set or a 2pair then he's going to reraise and we're going to have the worst of it.

A good player I'm calling and raising the river and folding to a 3bet. A bad player I'm going to raise the Turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

A good player that views us as tight is behind in this hand no matter what (or possibly tied). His only chance is to hit a 2-outer for a set or a 3-outer for two-pair on the river.

I seriously doubt a solid villain is going to 3-bet preflop with A7, 77 or worse hands. He can't have AA. I have over 95% confidence that Hero is ahead or tied at the turn.

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

You're right, he might have AQs.

Re: Hmmmmmm indeed
 

B)
Raising right now will get him to fold an underpair that might draw out on you on the river. If you call the turn he must put you on an ace, and he is unlikely to pay off on the river with an underpair.

If has an ace he is going to showdown (he has K or Q kicker), so you can choose where you want to get the extra bet out of him. You make more money by knocking out the underpairs on the turn.

If he is a bad player he will pay you off on the river with an underpair enough to compensate for the times he draws out on you. So it is better to keep him in by calling the turn and raising the river.

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

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Oy, I'm a moron... what happens to the card that lands face up? Is it just dead? You wouldn't have told us if it was reshuffled into the deck, so I assume so.

[/ QUOTE ]

In every B&M I've ever sat in, a face-up card on the deal becomes the first burn card. This "preserves" the rest of the deck, so that the eventual board cards aren't disturbed by the error.

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

I like calling the turn and raising the river against the ho-hum player.

Against the good player I don't see anything wrong with just calling the turn and river. If he views you as weak and he's good he's not calling a river raise with anything you beat often enough to make it profitable. He's 3betting anything that beats you (I'm not sure what that is though). Does he view you as so weak that he'll 3bet AQs/AJs from the BB?

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

I think we can put the good player on KK-99, which he will fold if we raise the turn, and a big ace that he isn't going to fold.

The good player isn't putting any more money into the pot w/ an underpair unless he hits a set. It should be clear to him we have an ace.

Since the good player isn't going to call a river raise with anything you beat, you might as well knock him out of the pot with a turn raise before he improves to something that does beat you (like he hits his set w/ KK-99)

If you raise the turn you prevent the 1 in 23 chance this happens.

Versus the ho-hum player it is better to call the turn. The ho-hum player will probably fold an underpair on the turn if we raise, but make a crying call on the river.

If he has an underpair on the turn, you are ahead 22 out of 23 times on the river. Many of these 22 times he will pay off one more BB, which is enough to offset those times he does improve to a set.

Correct?

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
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Oy, I'm a moron... what happens to the card that lands face up? Is it just dead? You wouldn't have told us if it was reshuffled into the deck, so I assume so.

[/ QUOTE ]

In every B&M I've ever sat in, a face-up card on the deal becomes the first burn card. This "preserves" the rest of the deck, so that the eventual board cards aren't disturbed by the error.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes sense, but if they do that, then how can we protect against a marked card hitting the flop?