Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

We pretty much have the nuts here as neither of these Villain would 3 bet with Ax.

So the question is do you raise the turn, or wait to raise the river?

Against average player raise the turn as he is unlikely to fold a weaker hand. Especially since he knows that an A is already gone, this will give him more reasons to call.

Against a good thinking player wait til the river as he may fold KK or worse on the turn. This is even more true if he perceives you as weak tight (due to all the missed flops that you had to fold), or unsophisticated.

If your table image was different (say more aggressive and tricky), I might prefer raising the turn vs a good player as he might think you are trying to push him off a high pair, given that an A is already gone.

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

If villain sees us as weak tight, he might try to bully us with AQs, preflop. I would not discount AQs completely.

With only 1 A left in the deck, I guess it does not make a much of a difference though.

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

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He's got KK-99. Raise.

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If he's good then this makes no sense. If he has got one of these hands then he's probably going to fold and we win the least, but if he's got us beat with a set or a 2pair then he's going to reraise and we're going to have the worst of it.

A good player I'm calling and raising the river and folding to a 3bet. A bad player I'm going to raise the Turn.

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A good player that views us as tight is behind in this hand no matter what (or possibly tied). His only chance is to hit a 2-outer for a set or a 3-outer for two-pair on the river.

I seriously doubt a solid villain is going to 3-bet preflop with A7, 77 or worse hands. He can't have AA. I have over 95% confidence that Hero is ahead or tied at the turn.

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

You're right, he might have AQs.

Re: Hmmmmmm indeed
 

B)
Raising right now will get him to fold an underpair that might draw out on you on the river. If you call the turn he must put you on an ace, and he is unlikely to pay off on the river with an underpair.

If has an ace he is going to showdown (he has K or Q kicker), so you can choose where you want to get the extra bet out of him. You make more money by knocking out the underpairs on the turn.

If he is a bad player he will pay you off on the river with an underpair enough to compensate for the times he draws out on you. So it is better to keep him in by calling the turn and raising the river.

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

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Oy, I'm a moron... what happens to the card that lands face up? Is it just dead? You wouldn't have told us if it was reshuffled into the deck, so I assume so.

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In every B&M I've ever sat in, a face-up card on the deal becomes the first burn card. This "preserves" the rest of the deck, so that the eventual board cards aren't disturbed by the error.

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

I like calling the turn and raising the river against the ho-hum player.

Against the good player I don't see anything wrong with just calling the turn and river. If he views you as weak and he's good he's not calling a river raise with anything you beat often enough to make it profitable. He's 3betting anything that beats you (I'm not sure what that is though). Does he view you as so weak that he'll 3bet AQs/AJs from the BB?

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

I think we can put the good player on KK-99, which he will fold if we raise the turn, and a big ace that he isn't going to fold.

The good player isn't putting any more money into the pot w/ an underpair unless he hits a set. It should be clear to him we have an ace.

Since the good player isn't going to call a river raise with anything you beat, you might as well knock him out of the pot with a turn raise before he improves to something that does beat you (like he hits his set w/ KK-99)

If you raise the turn you prevent the 1 in 23 chance this happens.

Versus the ho-hum player it is better to call the turn. The ho-hum player will probably fold an underpair on the turn if we raise, but make a crying call on the river.

If he has an underpair on the turn, you are ahead 22 out of 23 times on the river. Many of these 22 times he will pay off one more BB, which is enough to offset those times he does improve to a set.

Correct?

Re: Hmm live AKs hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Oy, I'm a moron... what happens to the card that lands face up? Is it just dead? You wouldn't have told us if it was reshuffled into the deck, so I assume so.

[/ QUOTE ]

In every B&M I've ever sat in, a face-up card on the deal becomes the first burn card. This "preserves" the rest of the deck, so that the eventual board cards aren't disturbed by the error.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes sense, but if they do that, then how can we protect against a marked card hitting the flop?