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-   -   winning percentages of starting hands (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=158609)

auburnstud43 12-07-2004 12:43 PM

winning percentages of starting hands
 
Does anyone have, or know where to find, a spreadsheet on the winning percentages of starting hands in holdem against random hands... im not talking about heads-up.... the sheet im talking about has the winning % of like AKs against 9 random hands, 8 random hands, 7,6...down to heads-up.....ive seen this sheet before but cant remember where i viewed it...the situations were run like 10,000,000 times to give you a more accurate percentage...any info would be appreciated....

gaming_mouse 12-07-2004 02:53 PM

Re: winning percentages of starting hands
 
You can calculate them yourself with the free program pokerstove:

www.pokerstove.com

You can enter a starting hand for player 1, and then use "select all" for the remaining 9 players. This gives you the "all-in" equity for player 1's hand -- how often it will win assuming all hands go to showdown.

Note that in general this is NOT EVEN CLOSE to your expected win rate with a particular hand, because in an actual poker game hands are folded, bet, raised, etc. Finding your expected win rate is something best done with empirical evidence. And you can find that in the pokerroom EV stats page, which is an excellent resource:

http://www.pokerroom.com/games/evstats/pairStats.php

gm

Lost Wages 12-07-2004 04:21 PM

Re: winning percentages of starting hands
 
FWIF (not much), link.

Lost Wages

ccwhoelse? 12-09-2004 04:06 AM

Re: winning percentages of starting hands
 
And you can find that in the pokerroom EV stats page

if their stats are an average of their players data and you assume many players will misplay their hands, wouldn't the stats be skewed somewaht?

gaming_mouse 12-09-2004 04:46 AM

Re: winning percentages of starting hands
 
[ QUOTE ]
And you can find that in the pokerroom EV stats page

if their stats are an average of their players data and you assume many players will misplay their hands, wouldn't the stats be skewed somewaht?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, certainly. If you are winning player, your EVs will be higher than those listed. However, barring a large pokertracker database of your own hands, I still find it to be a helpful guideline.

And it will certainly be a better approximation of your acutal winrate than a pure hand equity enumeration (the kind you can get in pokerstove) will be. This is not to say those enumerations do not have their uses -- they certainly do -- only that estiamting winrates is not one of them.

gm

chris_a 12-13-2004 11:58 AM

Re: winning percentages of starting hands
 
Thanks for the link, I didn't know about pokerstove, it's nice.

I've written software that does this too, however, there's no GUI. It's only console based though. Plus it only has the Monte Carlo feature and not the enumerate all feature.

One nice feature that mine has is that you can create groups (for instance, I can force player N's hand to be from some range of the Sklansky groups). This is nice when you want to figure out your approximate % against a tight raiser in early positions, but don't know what hand he exactly has, for example. Mine also gives a breakdown of the hands you won with.

I will send the executable to anyone if you private message me. However, there's no GUI so it's not for the computer newbie.

As a side note, on poker stove, do you know why the probabilities come out differently when you run two random hands against each other?

Chris

chris_a 12-13-2004 12:11 PM

Re: winning percentages of starting hands
 
[ QUOTE ]
As a side note, on poker stove, do you know why the probabilities come out differently when you run two random hands against each other?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nevermind about this question, it just takes a while to converge when you do two random hands with enumerate all.

gaming_mouse 12-14-2004 01:00 AM

Re: winning percentages of starting hands
 
[ QUOTE ]
One nice feature that mine has is that you can create groups

[/ QUOTE ]

Pokerstove supports ranges of hands as well.

gm


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