Re: party 30/60 hand I\'m not happy with
 

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Maybe DERB used to run into tough spots like this too.

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lol

Re: party 30/60 hand I\'m not happy with
 

"If one decides to wait for the turn to raise, I am not sure that an overcard on the turn should dissuade us from raising; in fact, it may give us more reason to raise i.e. the flop bettor will often follow through with a bet regardless of whether the turn card hit him and there is reason for him to think that the turn overcard hit you (if you raise the turn) given that you just called the flop on a board bereft of draws"

I find this works quite well (B&M games). Especially head-up, where they're more likely to continue to bet on the turn no matter what comes. Here there's another opponent to consider, but the fact that he didn't raise when an ace came is a factor in favor of continuing the plan to raise the turn.

The problem, though, is that the overcard that came is an ace. Guys play lots of hands with aces in them. My experience is that a continuation bet into an overcard on the turn when it is an ace is more likely a hand that either was helped by or doesn't fear the ace than when the overcard is something other than an ace.

Re: party 30/60 hand I\'m not happy with
 

This is six way. Go ahead and raise the flop -- or, given the smaller turn pot had you not, I'd say definitely abort the turn raise plan when the A hits.

I'm not sure your observations (however valuable) relate much to the hand at hand.

Re: party 30/60 hand I\'m not happy with
 

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Why is it a clear fold on the river but not on the turn?

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you have outs.

you may get a free showdown.

you may still have the best hand.

the pot is sizable/decently sized. (can't remember # players but around 10bbs)

EDIT: 7.5:1 to call the turn closing the action. if behind AND have 100% of 5 outs you need about 8.5:1 to call. if ahead then clearly you should raise getting/laying 3.75:1 for yourself. if you believe tha probability you are ahead + the probability you wont have to call a bet on the river is large enough compared to the probability you are behind and drawing to 2 outs + the probability you'r behind drawing to 5 outs + the probability that you have to call a river bet, then you should raise the turn. if you think the first two probabilities are relatively small, then you should do what you did, which is call/fold.

stox said why not fold turn. this imo is the powe of position and action closing. if the action went bb check utg bet Paluka raised bb cold called the flop, THEN the ace fell on the turn and bb checked againa nd UTG bet then a fold is prudent b/c the bb called 2 cold on the flop w/ no real draw out there and UTG fired again when the ace hit.

but here, paluka is getting 7.5:1 on an optimistic 8.5:1 shot or 3.75:1 for a raise. with implied odds id say this is a call even if those implied odds have to be played passively. further, i think the turn play is close given that he coudl be drawing to 2 outs and pay reverse implied odds for the draw. id lean towards a fold vs. "decent" players, but against 2 unknowns with no reads at all ive never seen id lean towards a FCR {0,50,50}. further, the bb would be (imo and i could be wrong) more likely to bet into a field here w/ top pair weak kicker vs. A7 or Awhatever-the-other-rag-was despite combinatoric evidence to the contrary.

NOTE on eric's method: given that they are unknown and given that this is the EXACT situation id face in a simulation infinite times then that triple is what id go with. NOW, if i was given that situation after the information of my previous actions are known, FCR{0,50,50} is very exploitable.

Barron

Re: party 30/60 hand I\'m not happy with
 

The mission you set for yourself was apparently to answer the question: "Why is it a clear fold on the river but not on the turn?"

You made a case for calling the turn (before descending into incoherent babble). You say part of the reason to call the turn is that he might be best, well, did the river lead and call change that? That is the question.

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NOTE on eric's method: given that they are unknown and given that this is the EXACT situation id face in a simulation infinite times then that triple is what id go with. NOW, if i was given that situation after the information of my previous actions are known, FCR{0,50,50} is very exploitable.


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See, it's not clear what street you are talking about. Assuming it is the turn... If raising 50% and calling 50% is correct, you want to argue that that 50% you call you should fold a blank river unimproved? Huh?

Re: party 30/60 hand I\'m not happy with
 

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Maybe DERB used to run into tough spots like this too.

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lol

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I was being semi-serious. If you're constantly in spots where you have a tough call/fold decision with a better than average hand on the river, it seems like you'd start to develop a playing strategy that makes it nearly impossible to blow you off any hand.

~D

Re: party 30/60 hand I\'m not happy with
 

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NOTE on eric's method: given that they are unknown and given that this is the EXACT situation id face in a simulation infinite times then that triple is what id go with. NOW, if i was given that situation after the information of my previous actions are known, FCR{0,50,50} is very exploitable.



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This make absolutely no sense. Mixed strategies in poker are good because over the long run observant opponents can exploit pure strategies. Closing the action on the river in a simulation of this exact situation against two guys you don't know who don't know you, either calling or folding is better and any mixed strategy is strictly wrong (unless the situation is such that you are completely indifferent between calling and folding and every answer is right). This FCR triple thing has everyone talking out of their asses.

Re: party 30/60 hand I\'m not happy with
 

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NOTE on eric's method: given that they are unknown and given that this is the EXACT situation id face in a simulation infinite times then that triple is what id go with. NOW, if i was given that situation after the information of my previous actions are known, FCR{0,50,50} is very exploitable.



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This make absolutely no sense. Mixed strategies in poker are good because over the long run observant opponents can exploit pure strategies. Closing the action on the river in a simulation of this exact situation against two guys you don't know who don't know you, either calling or folding is better and any mixed strategy is strictly wrong (unless the situation is such that you are completely indifferent between calling and folding and every answer is right). This FCR triple thing has everyone talking out of their asses.

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granted that i dont understand fully the whole triple thing and all its exactitudes, this is what i thought.

i was imagining a monte carlo simulation type setting vs. in this spot. given my assumptions, and given that they dont remember the previous "draw" raising half the time and calling half the time on the turn is probably best (yields highest EV over long run i.e. 1million sims).

upon further reflection, some % of the time you will be drawing to 2 outs so folding should be in there and 50/50 call raise isn't correct. i dont think there is a clear dominant strategy here under those settings above.

NOW, moving to the setting you are talking about that is where the players will remember and will be playing optimally, then its much trickier b/c most strategies selected can be exploited.

i dont want to go through (and dont know if i even COULD do it correctly) all the calculations necessary to get the proper triple for this situation.

my WHOLE POINT though is that vs. unknowns, folding here i think is a loss.

Barron

Higher & Deeper
 

So you need to fold sometimes because sometimes you are drawing thin? Meanwhile, your WHOLE POINT, in ostensibly defending a call on the turn and fold on the river strategy is to argue that folding on the turn (? we guess) is a loss (but not so much a loss that folding shouldn't be in the curly brackets).

{ HAW, HAW, HAW }

Re: party 30/60 hand I\'m not happy with
 

yes, good points. I agree with your comments about the Ace deserving special attention.