**Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

A couple weeks back, in this thread about satellite strategy, Adanthar made this claim:

[ QUOTE ]

[*I am open to a $1000 or more wager that I can make it from a miniStep 1 (5+1) to a miniStep 5 (400+30) playing on $30 or less. I'd make it less than that but I've gotta leave room for aces getting cracked. Of course, this blatantly ignores $/hour.]

[/ QUOTE ]

And what do we do on 2+2 when someone make some fat spankingly outrageous claim like that? Why, we wager of course.

So after a few PMs, we settle on a bet of $1,000. Adanthar has an account with $30 in it, can play only ministep 1s (and any freerolls earned thereafter). If he at any time gets an entry into a ministep 5, he wins and gets a shiny trophy (read: ten benjamins). If he has run his account to less than enough to buy in to a ministep 1 and has no freerolls left, I win the trophy and he gets a certificate of participation.


Since the money has been sent to an intermediary and the games begun, we can both now explain why we're so goddamn certain that we're getting the best of it. I estimate his chance of success to be 25%. I'm assuming that he's an outstanding player.

Would like to see what some of you think about this as the games play out, and what Adanthar has to say about it.

And boy am I ever going to have to eat my words if he makes it.

Everett

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

I'm interested to see the results of this (although they won't pove anything). I think you have the best of it.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

Adanthar only needs to succeed at this more than half the time in order to have an edge on this bet.

Edit: but I'm sure you realized that.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

Do pros multitable the higher end ministeps like they do the regular steps? I think if there's a lot of pros just multitabling them that throws a huge wrench into the works.

I think it's feasable, I've made it to a regular step 4 before on just like 2 or 3 step 1 buy ins. I just think it would take so long for him to pull off that it's not worth it for the $/hour, especially with all the pros at the final stage, and the fact that it takes forever for the step 3s and 4s to fill.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

how is he setting up a new account? The only reason i ask, is that I assume this is your only way to confirm that no other money has been deposited in the account (which i guess means that you would have access to this account also so that you can confirm the deposits).

Anyway, I think this is a very interesting wager and wish you both good luck.

If I understand steps right, I think you are on the better end of the wager. He basically gets 5 tries at making something happens (inside of those 5 tries he can have numerous retrys by way of freerolling, but essentially he is not going to receive any money for placing in top spots, since it only gains him access to the next step, so his $30 will never increase). 5 tries only, hmmmm... I hope he's good, otherwise very bad wager for him.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

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how is he setting up a new account? The only reason i ask, is that I assume this is your only way to confirm that no other money has been deposited in the account (which i guess means that you would have access to this account also so that you can confirm the deposits).

Anyway, I think this is a very interesting wager and wish you both good luck.

If I understand steps right, I think you are on the better end of the wager. He basically gets 5 tries at making something happens (inside of those 5 tries he can have numerous retrys by way of freerolling, but essentially he is not going to receive any money for placing in top spots, since it only gains him access to the next step, so his $30 will never increase). 5 tries only, hmmmm... I hope he's good, otherwise very bad wager for him.

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He emptied his account and changed the pw so i have access to it for the duration of the challenge. I'm not at all worried about his honesty, just his ego [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

I'm guessing you've got the best of it. Someone with some programming skills should monte-carlo this and figure out how good adanthar needs to be to make his wager correct.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

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Adanthar only needs to succeed at this more than half the time in order to have an edge on this bet.

Edit: but I'm sure you realized that.

[/ QUOTE ]


And if you count that he actually WINS the step 5, when he wins the bet, he only has to win like 20% of the time (i refuse to do the actual math.

---


This is an awesome bet, i hope you/adanthar keeps up posted. I might even want to sweat some SnG's ( [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img])

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

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I'm guessing you've got the best of it. Someone with some programming skills should monte-carlo this and figure out how good adanthar needs to be to make his wager correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe somebody did [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

I will buck the trend and say my boy Adanthar has the best of it. I have my reasons, and they go beyond mere nepotism. If you want to know why, do 2 things:

1) Look at the payout structure for mini step 1, and see what place you need to get to get a "try again, step 1" freeroll (or better).

2) Log onto Party, pull up the list of mini step 1s, look at number of players left, and the level.

Adanthar will have far more than 6 shots at getting to step 4.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

Interesting challenge. GL Adanthar.

What's your Party ID if you don't mind my asking? I've been playing these mini steps lately, and wouldnt mind sweating you.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

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And if you count that he actually WINS the step 5, when he wins the bet, he only has to win like 20% of the time


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He doesn't need to take the bet to play the ministeps, so the amount that he earns through playing doesn't really matter.

Of course, we all agree that adanthar is hugely +EV in the ministeps (a la the fact that nobody's said he's completely insane yet, and this bet is clearly insane for anyone who's break even or a little +EV).

Gl, adanthar; be really cool if you make the full 3k off of a $6 investment.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

I concur and would put my money on Adanthar. Now, if this was OOT whoever loses this bet would be banished from the island [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

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I will buck the trend and say my boy Adanthar has the best of it. I have my reasons, and they go beyond mere nepotism.

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So do I. I'll spell it out later but I want other thoughts.

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If you want to know why, do 2 things:

1) Look at the payout structure for mini step 1, and see what place you need to get to get a "try again, step 1" freeroll (or better).

2) Log onto Party, pull up the list of mini step 1s, look at number of players left, and the level.

Adanthar will have far more than 6 shots at getting to step 4.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course, there's so many ways to fall back to step 1 or better that it's hard to bust out! In fact, we both agreed that he probably only busts in step 1 about 20-25% of the time. But he's still a dog.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

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]
Adanthar will have far more than 6 shots at getting to step 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

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I concur and would put my money on Adanthar. Now, if this was OOT whoever loses this bet would be banished from the island [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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The sideaction window is open to those feeling lucky[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. We can check his status if you like.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

Results so far:

6 entries. 5 rerolls. 1 loss that was my fault (pushed 2 pair ran into a straight, should've check/folded.) There's a AA vs. AA all in loss and a bunch of lost 70/30's in there but whatever, I can reroll until I stop running bad.

We'll see how it goes from here, I'll be playing mostly in the evenings.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

[ QUOTE ]
I will buck the trend and say my boy Adanthar has the best of it. I have my reasons, and they go beyond mere nepotism. If you want to know why, do 2 things:

1) Look at the payout structure for mini step 1, and see what place you need to get to get a "try again, step 1" freeroll (or better).

2) Log onto Party, pull up the list of mini step 1s, look at number of players left, and the level.

Adanthar will have far more than 6 shots at getting to step 4.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I'm going to go with the minority and take Adanthar here. I think that as long as he is willing to pass up a few +cEV spots for the sake of the wager, people play mini-steps so badly that you could almost fold your way to a freeroll in mini step 1 and then try and win it every time. Once you get beyond step 1 you HAVE to take dead last in order to not loop back.

I'm not near the SnG player Adanthar is, and I think I could probably do this (and no, I'm not accepting wagers). Just look at the structure: http://www.partypoker.com/news/event...-steps-05.html

If Adanthar had to win a step 5 I'd probably go against him, but the way I understand this he simply has to make it to a step 5, correct? I'll be interested in following, but I think as long as he's willing to be very risk adverse in his mini step 1s, this is easy money for him.

-Rizen

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

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people play mini-steps so badly that you could almost fold your way to a freeroll

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I've open folded AK 3 times so far.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

Who provided the $30? Maybe this is just a disguised way for adanthar to get a backer [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

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[ QUOTE ]
people play mini-steps so badly that you could almost fold your way to a freeroll

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I've open folded AK 3 times so far.

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At what point in the tournament?

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

good luck adanthar,,,although u wont need it.

I have a proposition along the same lines as adanthar's..

I will start out with $50.00 and attempt to do the same
thing as adanthar. All rules to the adanthar challenge will
be the same , with one exception: I have to go all in whenever i get the 7,8 of spades or the king(clubs)6 (hearts)
(no matter what stage of the tourney it may be at the time)

Once again, good luck adanthar

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

Who's up for a sidebet? 5-100$, you choose the side.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

I'll take $20 on Adanthar

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

$100 on Adanthar

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

So you'll take either side of any bet? Weird.

I'll take any sidebet from anyone who wants to bet on adanthar, up to $100. PM me and we'll work it out. I'll list out all the bets at some point.

After this challenge I'll be either buying a Benz or washing them for 10 bucks at your local gas station.

Everett

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

Why is there no time limit on this thing? As said before, you can probably fold your way to a freeroll in step 1 every tournament. Give him some sort of time limit, otherwise I'm pretty positive he can make it.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

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you can probably fold your way to a freeroll in step 1 every tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this actually true?

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

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Why is there no time limit on this thing? As said before, you can probably fold your way to a freeroll in step 1 every tournament. Give him some sort of time limit, otherwise I'm pretty positive he can make it.

[/ QUOTE ]



SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

I remember when the mini-steps were first introduced, Adanthar made a post on another forum I read (he might have made a similar one here on 2+2), that if you had a Party account with rakeback, you could probably just register for a few mini-steps before leaving your house for the day, and when you came back and you'd have made a profit because of rakeback without ever playing a hand.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Why is there no time limit on this thing? As said before, you can probably fold your way to a freeroll in step 1 every tournament. Give him some sort of time limit, otherwise I'm pretty positive he can make it.

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SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

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I've seen these things 10 way with 50/100 blinds. They're not as nutso as everyone seems to think.

Also dogsballs, you sent me a PM but youre over your limit so i can't PM you back.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

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So you'll take either side of any bet? Weird.

I'll take any sidebet from anyone who wants to bet on adanthar, up to $100. PM me and we'll work it out. I'll list out all the bets at some point.

After this challenge I'll be either buying a Benz or washing them for 10 bucks at your local gas station.

Everett

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check inbox good sir.

Sidebets
 

Me: $100 against adanthar

TimCaum: $20 for adanthar

Exit: $80 for adanthar

Sound good?

Re: Sidebets
 

Now I'm in for adanthar $100.

Re: Sidebets
 

Sounds good to me.

Re: Sidebets
 

[ QUOTE ]
Me: $100 against adanthar

TimCaum: $20 for adanthar

Exit: $80 for adanthar

Sound good?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd rather handle all the sidebets but you all are free to do as you please. I'll make an official listing at some point.

Anyone interested PM me. I know it sounds snooty but most people I'll ask to just send me the money. If I know you or my read on you tells me that I can trust you, we can let the forum enforce it. Lets gamboooool

Everett

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

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6 entries. 5 rerolls.

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Er... so how much $ do you have in yoru account/ how many freerolls do you have (what level).

Clearly i'm retarded for not being able to figure it out. But .. oh wel.

Re: Sidebets
 

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Sounds good to me.

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Cool. I should have mentioned I'm up for just $100 total, so just these two I've listed above (if tim agrees). Sorry noah and/or others. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Re: Sidebets
 

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Now I'm in for adanthar $100.

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PM me, we'll chat

Re: Sidebets
 

Didn't see anyone yet taking your bet. I'll take against Adanthar for $100. Sound good?