10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion
 

Can someone who's good with statistical analysis look at this? In my observed hands database, I came across this player who's getting crushed after 11500 hands....yet his W$SD is an amazing 58.29!!

I realize his WtSD is a little low, but how is this possible??

If you need more of his statistics, let me know.

http://img369.imageshack.us/img369/3393/wsd3he.png

Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion
 

He this could be me [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
I dunno, but I guess he's losing alot of big pots.

Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion
 

He's folding way too much. WtSD only 31.6. Accounts for the higher W$SD and the losses.

Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion
 

I also believe his PFR is a tad low along with blind steal.

Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion
 

variance / selection bias

Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion
 

I would be surprised if this guy is a long term loser as his stats don't appear to be too far off. I imagine he's not a happy bunny at present though.

Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion
 

[ QUOTE ]
He's folding way too much. WtSD only 31.6. Accounts for the higher W$SD and the losses.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks Rob,

After you said this, I looked at his folded to river bet and saw 47.6%! I am still surprised by the logic inconsistencies....and wondering how it's possible for someone reasonable enough to play everything else (VPIP, PFR, Folded SB & BB to steal, ASB, W$WSF) so close to optimally, yet fold THAT many winners on the end.

IMO, no one would play that masochistically unless they're trying to lose.

Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's folding way too much. WtSD only 31.6. Accounts for the higher W$SD and the losses.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks Rob,

After you said this, I looked at his folded to river bet and saw 47.6%! I am still surprised by the logic inconsistencies....and wondering how it's possible for someone reasonable enough to play everything else (VPIP, PFR, Folded SB & BB to steal, ASB, W$WSF) so close to optimally, yet fold THAT many winners on the end.

IMO, no one would play that masochistically unless they're trying to lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are almost precisely my stats, though my BB/100 is on the plus side. I fold too often. I'm working on seeing more showdowns, but I have a hard time seeing the showdown when I get check/raised on the turn when I've got AJ that missed. I'm trying to play cheap (1/2, 2/4) HU sessions to get more familiarity with playing missed/weak hands.

I'm guessing this player is normally a .5BB/100 type winner an he's having a bad run. Last night, first 3 hands I flopped trips, trips, nut straight, only to lose each time to a runner/runner. Those 3 hands put me nearly 20BB hole right off the bat. When you're a .5BB/100 winner, a sequence like that can put you in the hole for a loooonnnnggggg time.

Variance sucks.

Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion
 

Is your W$SD normally in the very high 50s when running bad and in the mid 60s when running good?

Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion
 

If you are having a hard time seeing the showdown when you get check-raised on the turn with your AJ that missed, then stop betting the turn with your AJ that missed if you might get check-raised.