AQ Axx, r board
 

$20 supersatellite for $200 supersatellite for $10K tournament at Foxwoods. I am 7th of 30 remaining for 6 seats.

Comments on my play? What do you think villain had?

Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t75 (8 handed) converter

MP1 (t1720)
MP2 (t6025)
CO (t1380)
Button (t2355)
SB (t9930)
BB (t2135)
UTG (t4060)
Hero (t4115)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of t75.
UTG calls t150, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t600</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, UTG calls t450.

Flop: (t1275) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (t1275) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t700</font>, UTG calls t700.

River: (t2675) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets t2760</font>, Hero calls t2760.

Final Pot: t8195

Re: AQ Axx, r board
 

He could easily have AJ here. I doubt he checks a weak ace twice and then bets the river. He could also have flopped a set and played it very slowly. He either has something really strong or he has absolutely dick. I probably call the river.

Re: AQ Axx, r board
 

As I was reading this, starting with the pre-flop play, I was thinking TT or JJ. Based on his river bet, I'm going to say JJ. I thought you should have bet on the flop, and if he had AJ I would have expected him to bet.

Re: AQ Axx, r board
 

Do you have a read on him? Given the low buy-in, I think he could even have something like KQ-KJ diamonds, and is pushing his missed draw.

But if he's solid, yes, AJ or JJ seem more likely.

Re: AQ Axx, r board
 

If I'm reading this right, it's a satellite and only one more needs to bust, correct? With your stack I usually play rather conservative here which is why I would simply bet the flop and be alright with taking it down there. On the river, it looks like you have around 2700 left which is ahead of 4 other stacks and he is pretty much putting you all in. I would play it safe and fold, only calling with the nuts or near nuts.

Re: AQ Axx, r board
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm reading this right, it's a satellite and only one more needs to bust, correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am in 7th place of 30 remaining with 6 seats. You are not reading it right. I understand basic satellite strategy.

Re: AQ Axx, r board
 

Only hand that would make sense is JJ/AJ and JdQd/ JdKd. Both JJ/AJ is less likely since he would've bet either the flop or the turn, at least. If he had AA, he played it very well. Getting 3:1, I would probably call the river.

Kirk

Re: AQ Axx, r board
 

Getting 3:1, I would probably call the river.

Not to be a nit, but he's getting slightly less than 2:1.

Adxd is also a possibility here,

Re: AQ Axx, r board
 

No [censored]... I was too lazy to look at all those other numbers following the 2,...

That makes it tougher. But I'm a donkey, so I would probably still call.

Kirk

Re: AQ Axx, r board
 

Based on his river bet, I'm going to say JJ.

The river bet looks strange for *any* set. With a set here a bet of 800-1000 would make more sense. Why make it easy to fold?