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Villain is 37/22/2.38 over a large sample.

I called the flop planning to slam a good turn card.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: I am MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 raises, I 3-bet, 4 folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP1 checks, I bet, UTG folds, MP1 raises, I call.

Turn: (7.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets, I call.

River: (9.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets, I call.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB

I can see that this guy is pretty agro, and I guess that's your concern. You've got to believe you're losing this 60-75% of the time, but I agree that you are winning enough to make this a call down.

I don't like it. On the turn, you're getting 9.25:2 on your calldown. ~1/6 of hands have the flush already, and this is not taking into account the two pair hands that have you beat.

PREFLOP: Standard.

FLOP: I like your plan, your hand will be much stronger if a blank hits the turn, waiting til the turn blanks off to get aggressive is the right play IMO on this board with your hand.

TURN: I understand why you called down, this guy's stats are pretty aggressive. Its hard for me to say if calling down is right or not. Judging by the villain stats, I do think the villain is capable of checkraising this flop without a club, but I also think he will checkraise this flop every time he does have a club no matter what that club is, thats what maniacs usually do. To be honest with you, I dont know what the right move is here, I am really not happy with folding this turn or calling down. I would probably fold the turn since his postflop aggression factor is not that high for a typical lag IMO.

It seems that villian is aggro enough that you will be able to either get 3bets in on the flop and then raise the turn anyway. I raise the flop almost all the time.

I think we can fold the turn. 4.5:1 to call down when we're probably drawing dead isn't very good (I don't think he'll bet the turn with a lot of the hands we beat).

Player may be aggressive, but is he to the point of being a donkey? Aggressor's perspective of your hand when betting the turn into a four club board would most certainly include some kind of club as well. Looks like he wants you to call. He won't check, because on a four club board checking does nothing in this case. If you have J club, for instance, you will check right back. If you have a set, checking gives you a free card. Either way, it looks like he has AT LEAST a club, if not one that is paint. Fold on turn.

Based on only his numbers I think you can call down. But I think this is a good example of how numbers don't paint an accurate enough picture. Is this an opponent who will bet without a club on the turn AND the river?

And then me may just have a T (or worse) and figure you haven't hit yet because you haven't raised and so he autobets.

- Jim

To quote what I told you last night

"if he's bad enough that you have to call down, call down".

I'm pretty sure this is a losing calldown even if our opponent has not seen his cards.