Oh my!! Should I risk my TOURNAMENT LIFE!! so early?!?!?!
 

Hello All,

Early in $100 MTT

Relevent stacks:

UTG = 87 BB
UTG+1 = 124 BB
MP1 = 107 BB
ME = 100 BB

In in the CO w/ black 66

UTG limps, UTG+1 limp, MP1 Raises to 4 BB's, I call, UTG calls, now UTG+1 raises to 14BB's ?!?!

MP1 calls, so I figure I'm getting some nice implied odds on 2 or 3 stacks, UTG didn't limp/raise the first chance he had to so I'm not worried about him re-opeining the betting for UTG+1, so I call, UTG folds

Flop (44BBs) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Oh boy.

UTG+1 bets 33 BB's, MP1 calls

Hero has 84 BB's left.

I figure UTG+1 for a big pair given his PF actions.

If I get HU with him with a push now I have 40% equity in a pot w/ 245BB's where I'm putting in 84BB's, I like that price and will take it every day of the week (yes even for my TOURNAMENT LIFE)

The problem is MP1's flat call.

I have no read, and MP1's hand may seriously diminish my equity in this pot if I push and he comes along after UTG+1 calls (I *know* UTG+1 has a big pair and is coming along if I push)

I thought about calling, but I don't like the thought of a blank coming off and I have to fold to any reasonable bet in this big pot.

I also don't like the thought of my card coming and getting no action on the turn.

So, what do you put MP1 on, what do you think of my line so far, and what do you do?

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Oh my!! Should I risk my TOURNAMENT LIFE!! so early?!?!?!
 

I'm getting out of the way here. I think you can find a better spot. I think I read a post from you once "you can't afford not to push small edges, and either can Woodguy". Look your behind here, find a place you have a edge. YOu have a nice stack, great FE, get away from this hand and move forward.

Re: Oh my!! Should I risk my TOURNAMENT LIFE!! so early?!?!?!
 

i'd make the first pre-flop call without any problem. the second is closer. there is still some chance that utg will make the unlikely limp-call-reraise and kill your hand. also, with 1-2 presumed big pairs out there, you have to worry more about set over set. a flop like AK6 looks pretty good but could easily cost you your stack, so you implied odds are not as good as they look. i'd probably call, but it's close.

on the flop, the only hands you really don't want MP1 to have are AsKs, 77, 88. a lot of other hands are cold calling here - including things like AKo sometimes, 99+, and some other hands. despite what you *know*, there is sometimes that both hold AQ/AK hands or can get away from a small overpair and you win the pot uncontested. also sometimes you get heads up with one of them with AsKs/AsQs and you're 50-50 with a ton of dead money.

i agree that a call is no good. push it in.

Re: Oh my!! Should I risk my TOURNAMENT LIFE!! so early?!?!?!
 

Why are you concerned with the call by MP1? Did you think you had any FE against UTG+1? If you put UTG+1 on a big pair then the same can be said for MP1. I doubt MP1 has a hand like AK and he certainly doesn't have a flush draw or 86 so your chances of winning the pot go down if MP1 is in there but if you hit your straight or set the chances are pretty high that you'll triple up. If I'm going all-in here I want three-way action. Am I missing something?

Re: Oh my!! Should I risk my TOURNAMENT LIFE!! so early?!?!?!
 

Pushing is ev neutral if you knew both come along because you're about 40% vs. two over pairs and 25% against say an over pair and overcards+flush draw and given the pot odds are going to be like 2.5:1. Factor in the times you get it heads up against an overpair and its a push. It's just high variance and you second guess it when you crash out.

Re: Oh my!! Should I risk my TOURNAMENT LIFE!! so early?!?!?!
 

I'm praying both have overpairs here and get it awwwwwwwwwl eeeeeeeen

Re: Oh my!! Should I risk my TOURNAMENT LIFE!! so early?!?!?!
 

Woodguy is a donk, this is as big of an edge as he can hope for.

The only questionable part of your line to me is the PF 2nd call. The pot odds are basically unimportant, this is a pure implied odds play. I dont love risking >10% of my stack to flop a set. I can see myself calling here quite alot, but it never feels right afterwards.

Re: Oh my!! Should I risk my TOURNAMENT LIFE!! so early?!?!?!
 

Interesting spot. The flat call is weird. Originally I would have guessed a big pair or maybe AK. Now it's maybe AKs or a terrible "slow-played" big pair (with one spade perhaps?).
I'm not sure you can get rid of MP1 here. He did just put in 1/3 of his stack.
But if they each have a big pair then you have 10 outs twice so a push seems reasonable.

Re: Oh my!! Should I risk my TOURNAMENT LIFE!! so early?!?!?!
 

I like your read on the original raiser. It definitely appears he has an overpair, probably AA-QQ. The cold caller in MP1 is on a big draw, most likely a flush draw.

Two of your outs, 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] are tainted to a flush so I would not consider them outs. Thus you only have six clean outs, if you include the red sixes. This, in my mind, would necessitate a fold. I don't think you need to put all your chips into the pot versus an overpair and a big draw.

If you do decide to push, I believe the apparent overpair would call and of course the big draw would call since he is getting nearly the correct pot odds.

Stipe

Re: Oh my!! Should I risk my TOURNAMENT LIFE!! so early?!?!?!
 

[ QUOTE ]

Woodguy is a donk, this is as big of an edge as he can hope for.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct.

[ QUOTE ]
The only questionable part of your line to me is the PF 2nd call. The pot odds are basically unimportant, this is a pure implied odds play. I dont love risking >10% of my stack to flop a set. I can see myself calling here quite alot, but it never feels right afterwards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? If i check/fold the flop I still have 84BBs.....deeeep baby.

Regards,
Woodguy