Re: Deal or No Deal
 

500k ouch

he's taking the deal now

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
He'll take the deal if this case isn't 10k.

[/ QUOTE ]

OMG, he should have dealed lololzzz. The odds were totally not in his favor.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

Quiet table coach!

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

I must admit, I kinda like this show.


[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]



Adam

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

Homer, I just remembered I never heard how you did on your gameshow appearance.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
Homer, I just remembered I never heard how you did on your gameshow appearance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Worse than this guy is going to do. At best I won 1/10 as much. I suck.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

never heard about this, what show were you on?

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
240k hes gotta take it.

[/ QUOTE ]

he wont

[/ QUOTE ]



I think I'd have taken it.


What do you others say:

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
:(

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't worry, I'll be okay. I'm a slightly better than mediocre player in the game we shall not mention.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

189 = easy take for me

ev = 270

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
never heard about this, what show were you on?

[/ QUOTE ]

wwtbam

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

they really dont want him to take the deal

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
189 = easy take for me

ev = 270

[/ QUOTE ]

He's gotta take this.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

Result-oriented thinking woooooooo

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

"you made a great deal!"?
he did?
the next offer is either 150k, 200k, or 350k. how did he make a great deal?

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
"you made a great deal!"?
he did?
the next offer is either 150k, 200k, or 350k. how did he make a great deal?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he'd get anywhere near 150K if he picked the 400K. With 300K and 10K left, they'd probably offer 120K or so.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

Strug-a-ling. This woman looked like she was going to faint and now she keeps picking numbers with a bunch of zeroes behind them.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"you made a great deal!"?
he did?
the next offer is either 150k, 200k, or 350k. how did he make a great deal?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he'd get anywhere near 150K if he picked the 400K. With 300K and 10K left, they'd probably offer 120K or so.

[/ QUOTE ]
im just going by what they did yesterday when there was two cases left, split down the middle

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"you made a great deal!"?
he did?
the next offer is either 150k, 200k, or 350k. how did he make a great deal?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he'd get anywhere near 150K if he picked the 400K. With 300K and 10K left, they'd probably offer 120K or so.

[/ QUOTE ]
im just going by what they did yesterday when there was two cases left, split down the middle

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I didn't watch yesterday. If the lowest they'd offer is 150k, then turning down the 190k is a pretty easy choice.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

"I'm thinkin' that's a lot of cases."

"Right."

Howie's such a great host, man. Listen closely and you can tell half the stuff you hear from Howie was re-recorded after the fact.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
"I'm thinkin' that's a lot of cases."

"Right."

Howie's such a great host, man. Listen closely and you can tell half the stuff you hear from Howie was re-recorded after the fact.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of shows do this. Its always obvious.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

How can such a dumb game show be so engrossing?

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

Show's over for today.

She has to keep going (no deal).

She's offered 76K, but there's a 1 in 4 chance she'll get at least 500k (500K or 1M).


Adam

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"I'm thinkin' that's a lot of cases."

"Right."

Howie's such a great host, man. Listen closely and you can tell half the stuff you hear from Howie was re-recorded after the fact.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of shows do this. Its always obvious.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know a lot of shows do. Seemed more obvious to me here. Thanks, though.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
Damn, and I was just about to start a thread on this. What a horrible show. I want to kill each and every one of these people.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

This show is gay as [censored]. If I was on this show I'd try and be the most uninterested and bored [censored] ever just to be a dick. Also, I'd choose 1 as my case and then choose 2,3,4,5,6, etc.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
EV is one consideration, but hardly the most important. If someone offered to give me $2 million or flip a coin for either $5 or $5 million, I wouldn't have to think about it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Exactly. This game is easy to play by the numbers. But it's also good comparison to playing above your bankroll in poker limits. If I was on the game the first offer I had over 10grand or so I'd take it just because I'm flat ass broke, no matter what the EV. And unless these people are millionares there's NO reason they should be rejecting these 100k+ offers even if it's -EV.

There's a cardplayer article that talks about this, but it's from the opposite side... that people gamble with their losses, but don't with sure gains. they fail to mention how much this 3,000 would affect the people surveyed.
CP Link
[ QUOTE ]
Understanding Poker Errors Through Prospect Theory — Part II
With Co-author Rachel Croson
by Barry Tanenbaum

...
Asymmetric risk preferences: When it comes to gains, people are risk-averse. That is, when they are given the chance to win $100 for sure or flip a coin for $200, they tend to choose the sure win. However, when it comes to losses, individuals are risk-loving. That is, they prefer a fifty-fifty chance of losing $200 to a sure loss of $100. In a more striking example, researchers asked 95 subjects which they would prefer:

A. Winning $3,000 for sure

B. Winning $4,000 with an 80 percent chance
Of course, the expected value (EV) of B is higher than the expected value of A ($3,200 is larger than $3,000), yet 80 percent of the subjects chose option A. Could it be that these subjects just did not like to gamble? Not really, because later in the experiment, these same subjects were offered the following choice:

C. Losing $3,000 for sure

D. Losing $4,000 with an 80 percent chance

Here, the expected value of C is higher than the expected value of D (-$3,000 is larger than -$3,200), yet 92 percent of the subjects chose option D. Now these same subjects are risk-loving, willing to sacrifice the $200 of expected value in order to take the gamble. In other words, people would rather take a sure profit than a good gamble, but would rather take a bad gamble than a sure loss.

To seasoned gamblers, this is a very surprising result, in that the vast majority chose the proposition with the worse EV each time. However, at the poker table we see this behavior all the time, as the following examples show.

...


[/ QUOTE ]

edit: I don't know if this is a good example, but say you have worked hard for a long time to build your bankroll to the limit you want to play at. and one day you go on and somehow you accidently join the highest NL game where your whole bankroll is on the line. 1st hand--you're in the BB with AA, UTG goes all in and it's folded around to you, do you call with your entire bankroll even though it's major +EV? hell no, you get the [censored] out.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I was on the game the first offer I had over 10grand or so I'd take it just because I'm flat ass broke, no matter what the EV. And unless these people are millionares there's NO reason they should be rejecting these 100k+ offers even if it's -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]

wow.

[/ QUOTE ]

does that suprise you? do you really think these people should be gambling away these offers no matter how much the money would affect they're lifestyle?

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I was on the game the first offer I had over 10grand or so I'd take it just because I'm flat ass broke, no matter what the EV. And unless these people are millionares there's NO reason they should be rejecting these 100k+ offers even if it's -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Play the online game at nbc.com a few times, and you'll see how crazy this approach is. Your EV at the very start is over $130,000 (I worked it out, but forget the exact number). With the low offers they give you, there's no way you should accept anything until there are, say, 8 suitcases left. It's extremely unlikely that you'll wind up with less than $10K if you stop gambling around that time, and even then you'll usually be in a position to keep going for a little bit while getting odds you can't pass up and a variance you can stomach.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

Online gives you an idea the algorithm the bank uses to figure out their deal, and after a while, the correct strategy seems to be to whittle down to eight, and you get about 50% of EV around there. At 5, it's about 60%. At 4, it becomes about 70% of EV(going all the way), and at 3, it's about 90% of EV(going all the way).

The 4 to 3 jump is immense.

This game would be really nice to play compared to other game shows, where your EV looks to be about $20,000, max. With this, you're looking at an average EV of $100,000.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

I actually like this show just for trying to figure out what the people are thinking and what they are going to do.

I am curious as to whether there is an algorithm for the "deals" they offer or if the bank sometimes [censored] with people. Like if it's down to $0.01 and $1,000,000 offer them something like $100K. Or if the bank knows the contents and tries to drive them towards a decision... or bluff!

Even better would be investigating their lives and coming up with evil amounts:

"OK, Tom... your daughter just got accpeted to college. Her 4-year education at Maryland is going to cost you $65,235. The bank's offer is $65,235."

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I was on the game the first offer I had over 10grand or so I'd take it just because I'm flat ass broke, no matter what the EV. And unless these people are millionares there's NO reason they should be rejecting these 100k+ offers even if it's -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
the problem is that if you are doing well there is a good chance your next deal is going to be lower than the one you currently have. so taking the deal earlier might be a good play if you are going to get nervous and take a worse one later on. your EV for the current deal is kind of moot if you aren't going to go all the way and just settle for a lower (and still -EV) play at the end.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

The calculator for the online version is screwy. When you're down to three cases left, they almost always make an offer above EV.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
The calculator for the online version is screwy. When you're down to three cases left, they almost always make an offer above EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah. it's safe to say the online calculator was just made up by some web person who wrote the flash thing.

i wish they would elaborate on what the banker is doing. i think it would be better if we knew he was [censored] with people and not just plugging numbers into something. or if we knew that he knew which case we had.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

Is anybody else really hoping she just picked the million?

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

dude this guy sucks, picking the 750k and 1 million cases early are very bad strategy.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

Heh, yeah.

The early bets seem huge -EV though. They're offering you like 10% of total prize pool. You should be able to wait for a 50-70% of prize pool package.

I'm probably going for about 80%/50+k.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

I'd love to play this game, obviously since the initial ev is like 130k, but also because it's such a no brainer to gambol. Gotta love a game where the by far superior strategy is to just go for it.