2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
 

Villain (MP3) is 58/8,86/1,4 so very loose
Hero is UTG with [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K

Hero raise, folds to villain who coldcalls, rest folds.
Flop [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A

Hero bet, villain calls
Turn [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J

hero bet, villain calls
River [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3
Hero bet, villain raise, hero calls

Even though the river completes a flushdraw I still think I need to bet out against this player? And I believe calling his raise is mandatory, but what sort of hands would he raise with, that I beat?

Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
 

i'm not entirely sure because my first thought is "the hand is played fine".

the question that keeps popping in my head is: how much value do we miss/lose by not betting this river? because i really don't think much is lost if we check/call here. would a King hold on this long? a lone Q for the straight draw? basically we're betting this river either hoping he's been calling down with a pocket pair or A/KQ or weaker Ace.

so i think i'm to the point where i'd check/call simply because i don't think i lose much value as much as the times he has A/K/QJ or a flush and i have to pay it off "just in case".

Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
 

Yes, the number of hands that he may call with that I actually beat is very limited.
If I bet out, I'll lose two BB when behind, and only rarely gain one when ahead. By checking I also allow him to make a bluff at the pot.

Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
 

I think I bet the river here HU against a complete donk villain (at 2/4 level at least). People with the PT stats you gave at this level will often call through with pretty trashy hands and TP any kicker.

There will be times where you'll get raised behind and shown a rivered flush or a slowplayed set or straight, but value betting against loose donks is a must.

Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
 

I like absolute's reasoning for the check/call line.

FWIW, I've seen Party 2/4 LP's with A3 raise this river thinking "I got 2-pair!", or with ridiculous bluffs, and since I need to pay off just in case I think the c/c makes sense.

Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
 

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would a King hold on this long?

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Villain (MP3) is 58/8,86/1,4 so very loose

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Absolutely.

IMO against this type of Villain you'll be shown down PPs or weak pairs very often when you bet. I see good amount of value in a river bet.

Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
 

I think this is a no brainer value bet. Remember the whole point of value betting. He WILL call you with more hands that you beat if you bet. If you check he won't bet as many hands that you beat so you are probably making a mistake by check/calling. Calling the raise could be argues but I think it's ok given the board and his aggression factor. Pay off his flush.

Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
 

it is possible, but how much value do you lose when you're behind and how much do you gain when ahead is my question. i'm a simple guy not a math/tech guy, so for my flintstonian-self:

- you lose 1bb when you check and he checks behind a worse hand that would have paid off (30%).

- you lose 0bb when you check and he checks behind a hand that wouldn't pay off (30%).

- you lose 2BBs when up against trips Jacks (5%)
- you lose 2BBs when up against AJ (5%)
- you lose 2BBs when up against KJ (5%)
- you lose 2BBs when up against a flush (15%)
- you win 1BB when up against an Ace (or other hand) that bluffs at this river (8%).

- you win 2BBs when he completely bluffs (2%)

obviously rough numbers but i don't think they're horrible (like i said i'm not a math guy) but seems you look to lose a lot more than gain. feel free to adjust as you see fit i guess.

Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
 

Bet this river every time. Call the bet every time. With this opponennt, you will be show K3 or A3 or someother two pair worse than yours a reasonable amount of the time.

Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
 

OK I think that analysis sucks. This is what makes value betting correct: So say you are ahead 60% of the time that you bet and he calls. Say he is folding 20% of the time and has the flush or J (or some other wierd monster) 20% of the time. You are winning one bet 60 times and lossing two bets 20 times for a net gain of 20 bets. If you check and he bets with a J or flush you are losing 40 bets if he only bets these hands. I dont think he will be betting a worse hand than yours more than 60% which is what you need in order to make a check call correct. Sorry for being so long winded all I'm saying is VALUE BET. I don't know the exact numbers but they are close I'm sure. Value betting is the bread and butter of 2/4 against these idiots.

Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
 

[ QUOTE ]
OK I think that analysis sucks. This is what makes value betting correct: So say you are ahead 60% of the time that you bet and he calls. Say he is folding 20% of the time and has the flush or J (or some other wierd monster) 20% of the time. You are winning one bet 60 times and lossing two bets 20 times for a net gain of 20 bets. If you check and he bets with a J or flush you are losing 40 bets if he only bets these hands. I dont think he will be betting a worse hand than yours more than 60% which is what you need in order to make a check call correct. Sorry for being so long winded all I'm saying is VALUE BET. I don't know the exact numbers but they are close I'm sure. Value betting is the bread and butter of 2/4 against these idiots.

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no big deal. i clarified in my original i thought "well played". i just offer other thoughts to consider even if they are wrong. okay the question is then : if he won't BET with a worse hand, will a RAISE with a worse hand?

Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
 

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if he won't BET with a worse hand, will a RAISE with a worse hand?

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Yes, sometimes he will have two worse pair than yours, and every once in a while, he will be betting on a complete bluff. I know this doesn't look like a good board to bluff into, but it happens anyway.

Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
 

[ QUOTE ]
- you lose 2BBs when up against trips Jacks (5%)
- you lose 2BBs when up against AJ (5%)
- you lose 2BBs when up against KJ (5%)
- you lose 2BBs when up against a flush (15%)

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I think these numbers are extremely conservative. 1.4PFA is pretty aggressive for a 58%VPIP. This guy is not waiting till the river to raise trip jacks unless he has a
FH. I think you'd be surprised just how often villian is showing down Ax, Kx, or even a small PP in this hand.

Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
 

I like the river bet.

I wouldn't be happy about getting raised, but I would call, hoping my LAGgy opponent is bluff-raising the scare card or has a hand like A3 for three-pair.

Or maybe he's been "slowplaying" just an ace or 77 all this time. I guess I'm probably giving Villain too little credit, but I do wonder sometimes what some LAGs are thinking when I see the plays they make.

Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
 

I would check-call the river.

My river aggression is very low though, I need to work on that.

Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
 

I'm gonna be the minority here. I would bet/fold the river. I raise almost always means a flush, or a really slowplayed jack. I don't think its worth throwing in an extra bet to find out if the guy is stupid enough to think the 3 improved his A3. The pot is small, and I don't think you are picking off a complete bluff enough to make the call.

Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
 

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I don't think its worth throwing in an extra bet to find out if the guy is stupid enough to think the 3 improved his A3.

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It's not that the 3 improved an A3. It's that A3 is chopping with all the other A's except AK and AJ. It is not unreasonable for a semi-donk to raise A3 here. In fact, there wouldn't have to be a very big chance for my opponent to fold another Ax (especially AK) for me to raise this board with A3 (and by "me" I mean the prototypical semi-donk).

Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm gonna be the minority here. I would bet/fold the river. I raise almost always means a flush, or a really slowplayed jack. I don't think its worth throwing in an extra bet to find out if the guy is stupid enough to think the 3 improved his A3. The pot is small, and I don't think you are picking off a complete bluff enough to make the call.

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I agree - bet/fold > check/call > bet/call.

Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
 

check call river

Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
 

wow, some of the responses to this thread are terribly weak.

you MUST bet this river