10/20 AQs blind steal
 

The Button is 21/11/1.55 after 1800 and has been 3-betting me light all morning; I was capping if given the chance. The BB here is 18/14/1.48 and folds his BB to a steal 17.2% of time after 3000 hands.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 7 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: I am CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">I raise</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, I call, Button calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, I check, Button checks.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, I call, Button folds.

River: (8.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, I call.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

Re: 10/20 AQs blind steal
 

It seems good, but gosh it feels like you will pay off AK more than you will like.

If you're willing to spend an SB on the river, raise the turn maybe?

Re: 10/20 AQs blind steal
 

I don't like raising. I think the Button will have a hard time overcalling anyway. I don't mind if the SB is bluffing.

Re: 10/20 AQs blind steal
 

I think a turn fold is the best play.

Re: 10/20 AQs blind steal
 

I don't care for the turn call. Be happy you got a four card flop, and muck the turn. Or if you want to make a move, raise the turn, maybe you get the button off of a pair but I don't like it as much.

The thing is you are screwed if the BB has AA-QQ (don't know why he'd check the flop though). If he capped with a medium pair there is a good chance he flopped a set. Even if he has AK, you are dominated.

Could you have the best hand? BB capped when out of position, so I doubt it unless you've seen him do it with AJ or worse, his numbers aren't that out of line. You're getting about the right price IF all 6 outs are live, but for that to be true he has to have like TT/JJ and have checked the flop? I think you are often drawing slim or dead.

Re: 10/20 AQs blind steal
 

what hand caps preflop but then checks the flop? I think its either 77,99, or overs is my best guess. What kinda range do you put him on? I think its gotta be wider then normal since the button has been 3 betting you all morning. What do you think of a cheap showdown or raise the turn and following through on the river?

Re: 10/20 AQs blind steal
 

I don't like raising. I think the Button will have a hard time overcalling anyway. I don't mind if the SB is bluffing.

Yeah, but given the way the hand is played, you're primary concern is with the BB, isn't it? A re-raise on the turn has so much more equity than a call on the river.

Re: 10/20 AQs blind steal
 

jason_t,

its unlikely you have the best hand here.

Re: 10/20 AQs blind steal
 

I think you should fold the river. You're just behind too much of his range to call getting 9 to 1.