Odds of a major downswing?
 

I've tracked every $55 SNG since Party started allowing 10 tables, whether I was drunk, on tilt, whatever. Since then I've played 1540 $55s with a ROI of 14.5% (including a recent downswing). In October and November, my worst 300 SNG stretch was winning $1300. Over my last 299 SNGs I have lost $582.

OK, I've seen posts where Irieguy says even the best players will lose over 100-150 SNGs. I'm just wondering what the odds are that a long term 15% ROI player could lose 11 buy-ins over a 300 SNG stretch. I'm not even overly pissed, just wondering how big a statistical anomaly this is. I imagine there's less than a 1% of this occurring. Hopefully, Irie or someone will know more.

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

1%, lol. All i know is ure guess is kinda low.

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

Search for the ROI simulator. It will run simulations that will tell you this.

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

11 buyin downsing - it's nothing.

Last week I came back to SNGs after taking a 6 month hiatus and hitting up NL cash games relentless. When I left my ROI was around 20%. My first 16 games I was OOTM. Figured I was rusty but not that rusty. However after playing 175 SNGs I have now put my ROI at 27%.

Being down $582 at the 55s is nothing though.

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
11 buyin downsing - it's nothing.

Last week I came back to SNGs after taking a 6 month hiatus and hitting up NL cash games relentless. When I left my ROI was around 20%. My first 16 games I was OOTM. Figured I was rusty but not that rusty. However after playing 175 SNGs I have now put my ROI at 27%.

Being down $582 at the 55s is nothing though.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're missing the point. I know an 11 buy-in downswing is nothing, I've experienced massive ones myself. It's the # of SNGs over which the downswing has occurred that I'm wondering about.

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Over my last 299 SNGs I have lost $582.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow 10 buyins.

[ QUOTE ]
OK, I've seen posts where Irieguy says even the best players will lose over 100-150 SNGs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not unless it was last year, when players here had no idea about the variance of sngs (no offence). This year, 500+ has been stated, although winning players here have experienced worse.

You don't know your skill level really is 14.5% ROI if you are just measuring it by that sample size.

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Search for the ROI simulator. It will run simulations that will tell you this.

[/ QUOTE ]


ROISimulator Hosted

Original Thread

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

So you're worried about a 500-SnG stretch? Wow. Three weeks ago I was an 18% ROI at the 11-33's (with most of that being at the 22's) through my first 7k'ish SnG's...over the course of my next 550 SnG's I was down 40 buyins.

Now, was some of tilt? Probably. I certainly didn't play perfect poker over the course of the losing swing. But most of it was just a CRAPPY run of cards. It happens from time to time.

11 buyins, whether over the course of 300 or 1000 SnG's...is really not that big a deal. You will experience worse if you play long enough.

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

cool link, how come u have a .com domain?

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

Its about 3% that a 15% ROI player will be down money after a specific set of 300 sit and gos. Its about 1% for a 20% ROI player.

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just wondering what the odds are that a long term 15% ROI player could lose 11 buy-ins over a 300 SNG stretch.

[/ QUOTE ]
Using the ROI simulator, I ran 10,000 simulations of 300 games each for a 15% ROI player. The largest drop out of the 10,000 was 57 buyins. 20% of the 10,000 had a drop larger than 11 buyins.

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
cool link, how come u have a .com domain?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's the fine work of "rvg72" of course...

I host a couple sites for my kids sports/school. I had one not in use and had visions of creating a blog of some sorts...just haven't gotten around to it yet.

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

Results:

For a 15% ROI player, there's a 96.2% chance that you will be breakeven or better over 300 SNGs.

As for my question, there's about a 1.2% chance of that drop occurring over 300 SNGs.

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
cool link, how come u have a .com domain?

[/ QUOTE ]

Cause he's a [censored] OG double OG ya heard?

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

I think you should be calculating the chance that a 15% player has a -10 buyin 300 sng run within 1800 sngs.

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should be calculating the chance that a 15% player has a -10 buyin 300 sng run within 1800 sngs.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I shouldn't. That would tell me my % chance of having a 10 buyin drop, which would obviously be higher than my chances of being down 10 buyins over any 300 SNG stretch. I wanted to know the chances of myself having a 10 buyin drop over 300 SNGs, and now I know the answer. Thanks bluefeet!

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

The chances of having a 10 buyin drop over 300 is pretty close to 100%, if not 100%.

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
That would tell me my % chance of having a 10 buyin drop,

[/ QUOTE ]

You didn't understand me. I was suggesting you calculate the odds that a 15% player will have a -10 buyin drop over 300 sngs, within his 1800-1900 sng sample. You might be 1% or 5% to experience -10 buyins over 300 sngs, but you have played 1800-1900 and not 300, which makes this much more likely.

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That would tell me my % chance of having a 10 buyin drop,

[/ QUOTE ]

You didn't understand me. I was suggesting you calculate the odds that a 15% player will have a -10 buyin drop over 300 sngs, within his 1800-1900 sng sample. You might be 1% or 5% to experience -10 buyins over 300 sngs, but you have played 1800-1900 and not 300, which makes this much more likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly.

Flip a coin 6 times. Chance you get six straight tails is 1/64.

Flip a coin 100 times and the chance you stop somewhere along the line and post "Hey! I just got 6 tails in a row!" much much higher.

Here is a link to a post where I put some tables that answer your question if you are a 10% ROI or 20% ROI. I didn't do the 15% case though.

ROI variance tables

Pokerscott

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Search for the ROI simulator. It will run simulations that will tell you this.

[/ QUOTE ]


ROISimulator Hosted

Original Thread

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for mentioning the app - glad it is getting some use.

rvg

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The chances of having a 10 buyin drop over 300 is pretty close to 100%, if not 100%.

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends on which question you are asking - having a 10 buyin drop during the course of 300 SNG's is one thing (which the 15% ROI player has about a 95% chance of happening) but being down 10 or more buyins after 300 SNG's is a different question.

My App doesn't really give you results like that without doing a little work so first you need to convert -10 over 300 to an ROI so that would be about -3%. The chance of this 15% ROI player getting -3% ROI or worse over 300 SNG's is about 2.5%.

rvg

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The chances of having a 10 buyin drop over 300 is pretty close to 100%, if not 100%.

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends on which question you are asking - having a 10 buyin drop during the course of 300 SNG's is one thing (which the 15% ROI player has about a 95% chance of happening) but being down 10 or more buyins after 300 SNG's is a different question.

My App doesn't really give you results like that without doing a little work so first you need to convert -10 over 300 to an ROI so that would be about -3%. The chance of this 15% ROI player getting -3% ROI or worse over 300 SNG's is about 2.5%.

rvg

[/ QUOTE ]

My comment was referring to playing over an infinite sample, which is how you should be viewing your poker results, not in self-selected samples.

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
- having a 10 buyin drop during the course of 300 SNG's is one thing (which the 15% ROI player has about a 95% chance of happening)

[/ QUOTE ]

...just so the OP sees this. This looks much more accurate than the 1% suggested. I'm old and slow. I have to be honest, I have a tough time figuring out those columns myself.

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

Okay here'sa listle durnkina analsysis.

I just might be the best 22er in the wrold.

And I've had a 42 byuhin OTM streak. So the chances that you could drop 10 guyins over 100 games? 110%. Like...ish is guarantedd to happen. So get over the shti, bdrin k a six pakck, and move on with your uckignf life.

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Okay here'sa listle durnkina analsysis.

I just might be the best 22er in the wrold.

And I've had a 42 byuhin OTM streak. So the chances that you could drop 10 guyins over 100 games? 110%. Like...ish is guarantedd to happen. So get over the shti, bdrin k a six pakck, and move on with your uckignf life.

[/ QUOTE ]

Drunken, philosophical pergesu is one of my favorites.

Re: Odds of a major downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
- having a 10 buyin drop during the course of 300 SNG's is one thing (which the 15% ROI player has about a 95% chance of happening)

[/ QUOTE ]

...just so the OP sees this. This looks much more accurate than the 1% suggested. I'm old and slow. I have to be honest, I have a tough time figuring out those columns myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually Blue Feet, you were right. The OP wanted to know the percent chance that a "true" 15% ROI player would drop 11 or more buyins over a set of 300 SNG's and that works out to about 2.5%.

Here are the chance that a 15% player (with a finish distribution of 12.5/13/12.5) will lose money over various quantities of SNG's:

50 25%
100 16%
500 1.1%
1000 < 0.1%

a 10% ROI player (12/12/12.5)

50 32%
100 24%
500 6.2%
1000 1.4%

a 20% ROI player (13.4/13/13)

50 19%
100 10%
500 0.2%
1000 almost 0... over 10K simulations the worst result over 1000 SNG's for a true 20% ROI player was +2% ROI.

rvg