100NL : overpair sniff out a set?
 

Mmm.. any tips on sniffing out a set? Villain (CO) is tight/solid, but I am in the BB and he limped. I figure he could have one of the draws. If I just call and check the turn I'm worried about being pushed off the hand. Too aggressive?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP1 ($87.50)
MP2 ($93.35)
MP3 ($112.60)
CO ($88.45)
Button ($109.85)
SB ($44.33)
Hero ($105.95)
UTG ($158.50)
UTG+1 ($216.38)
UTG+2 ($235.39)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, CO calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, CO calls $3, SB calls $3.

Flop: ($12) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $1</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $19</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $50</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $81</font>, Hero calls $31.

Turn: ($175) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: ($175) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: $175

Re: 100NL : overpair sniff out a set?
 

That flop 4-bet sucks balls. I call the min raise and probably C/F the turn after you start losing to the only hand you beat.

Re: 100NL : overpair sniff out a set?
 

Small bet then 3bet = monster very often. I'd either fold flop to the 3bet or call and most likely fold to that ugly turn

Re: 100NL : overpair sniff out a set?
 

Once I raise to $50 on the flop I have to call his reraise. I know I'm beat at that point, but it's $31 to win $175 and I have 6 outs. I need 17% and I have 24% so that's a clear call. The problem is when I 3-bet it, I pot-stuck myself. Seeing the cards there, if I just called I could've folded the turn or river since all the hands I beat got there.

I'm leaning towards folding, but that's mighty weak. Calling and then playing OOP with all the rotten cards that can scare me off the hand seems -EV.

Re: 100NL : overpair sniff out a set?
 

I like the reraise on the flop to $50. If he calls that imo he's on something big.
Well , he did one better than that. Youir $31 call to his raise gives you about 5:1 odds. You have 3 sevens (not the spade 7) and one 9, not the spade nine to make youir hand, and not fill in the flush when doing so. 4 outs in 48
=11:1 on turn and 11;1 on river = abut 5.5 to one. Your call is about even money.
Do i think he has a set. Absolutely no doubt in my mind; or he's a poker crazed maniac, lol

Re: 100NL : overpair sniff out a set?
 

He could easily have a better overpair or the straight as well. But I think from the action here it is pretty clear he has a set, don't three bet the flop unless you know villan would play like A8 like this.

Re: 100NL : overpair sniff out a set?
 

Raise more pre-flop. Make it $6. Fold to the CO's 3-bet. Even though it's only a min-raise, he's still 3-betting against and a bet and the PFR's raise. He has a set or better &gt; 90% of the time.

Re: 100NL : overpair sniff out a set?
 

dont dont dont 4-bet this flop. I call his 3-bet and play poker from there, most likely folding to any significant bet on the turn.