Getting COMPLETELY and UTTERLY destroyed...
 

... and it's not even close. Yeah - it's only 5k hands - short term variance - etc... but not this bad. There's no way this is just "bad luck." I'm doing something wrong here. I'm 100% sure that my AF is too high, but I'm also 100% sure that's not the only thing I'm doing wrong (and I'm 100% sure I don't know how to fix that either).

I don't know why my AF is so high. I've been folding to turn raises from passive/straightforward players unless I have better than top pair or a draw with odds... I've been trying to avoid excessively bluffing in multiway pots... etc... but my AF is still up there.

I put in over 200 hours of play at $3/$6 and $5/$10 to build up the BR to get up here and I want to succeed in it, but I don't want to do it at the risk of going broke. If I'm running insanely bad that's one thing, but if I need to drop back to $5/$10 to figure things out I can accept that.

Thanks to rakeback I do still have 250BBs for $10/$20 on top of this 265BB downswing, so I could tough it out in $10/$20 for another 100BB and then drop back with 300BBs for $5/$10 if it comes to that.

Stats below... suggestions please. Be as harsh as you wish. You can't possibly say anything worse than I've said to myself already:

http://www.group-sales.com/~warik/1020_5k_stats.jpg

Re: Getting COMPLETELY and UTTERLY destroyed...
 

From what I've heard (I've never played 10/20), but there is a lot more raising and semibluffing with less than top pair at that game.

Re: Getting COMPLETELY and UTTERLY destroyed...
 

[ QUOTE ]
there is a lot more raising and semibluffing with less than top pair at that game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've read that before several times, but in the ~10k hands or so prior to this downswing, whenever I'd call down after a turn raise I'd expect to lose - and did most of the time... at least that is what stands out in memory.

Re: Getting COMPLETELY and UTTERLY destroyed...
 

You don't have to win a majority of the time for it to be profitable, but I'm sure you know that. Good luck with this - the only other things I see in your stats are maybe defend the BB more often and maybe play a few more hands? I'm really not qualified to help that much.

Re: Getting COMPLETELY and UTTERLY destroyed...
 

You fold too much. WtSD of 32 in combination with 21 vpip means you're letting them run over you.

Re: Getting COMPLETELY and UTTERLY destroyed...
 

I haven't played 10/20, but my impression acorss all previous levels is that outrageous AFs (and yours is nutso) are generally produced by folding too much instead of betting / raising too much.

Re: Getting COMPLETELY and UTTERLY destroyed...
 

Your AF is way off the charts. Try to get it down to 2, don't play raise or fold poker as much and try to call down more

Re: Getting COMPLETELY and UTTERLY destroyed...
 

You're folding your blinds too much and you're getting run over postflop.

Rob

Re: Getting COMPLETELY and UTTERLY destroyed...
 

[ QUOTE ]
You fold too much. WtSD of 32 in combination with 21 vpip means you're letting them run over you.

[/ QUOTE ]

AF is calculated as (Bet + Raise) / Call... perhaps my incorrect tendency to fold when I should call down is artificially increasing my aggro factor? In my overall $5/$10 stats I'm calling the river almost twice as much as I am now and my AF is significantly lower... [censored], I may be folding tons of hands that would have ended up being winners.

Re: Getting COMPLETELY and UTTERLY destroyed...
 

Folded to river bet: 58.

That is a serious, fundamental, basic problem.
Wow, I havent seen it that high in so long...its just scary.