Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

WPT Aruba, day 1 flight 3. I've been playing for 35 minutes but haven't seen a flop yet.
Here's the only time I put chips in the pot:
25/50 blinds, utg+1 limps, I limp utg+2, MP makes it 300, and everyone folds including me.

In the hand in question blinds are 25/50. Utg (Dave Williams) and Utg+1 fold. Semi-Tight UTG+2 makes it 150. MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls. I call J9s in the CO. Button folds. SB throws in a purple (500) and a black (100) chip. The dealer announces raise. He flinches as he starts to say, "no..." looks at the chips in the pot, and says, "ok" and kind of shrugs. BB folds. Initial raisor folds. MP1 calls. MP3 thinks for a few seconds and throws in two yellow chips. I'm next to act.

There are 3 players other than me still in the pot, here are my reads:

SB is a middle aged guy, (35ish), seemingly honest. Nothing about him seems very aggressive or even slightly tricky/deceiving. I'm 95% sure that his reaction is legit, and he did intend to call the raise. Obviously I have to consider the chance of angle shooting, and I did, and like I said, I'm 95% certain he intended to call. He has roughly 10k chips.
MP1 is an older guy, (45ish). He doesn't seem too experienced, and is clearly one of the worst players at the table. He's loose passive. I'm fairly certain he's a low limit online player that won a satellite into this event. My read is that he will be very hesitant to put his tournament on the line. He has roughly 9k chips.
MP3 is a young (24ish) guy with an accent (European or possibly Australian). He is the most aggressive player at the table, and that is saying a lot with Dave Williams at the table. He has been raising and rerasing lots of pots preflop and postflop. He rarely calls anything on any street. He's certainly the raise or fold type. He has about 14k chips, and does not seem to be afraid to put them in for any reason. He is definately a thinking player, possibly even a very good player, although I haven't played with him enough to know. My guess is that he's merely an above average player that is overconfident, but like I said, it's certainly possible that he's a very good player.

I'm next to act, and I have 9800 chips (note that all chip stacks mentioned are chip stacks at the start of the hand). I think for about 35 seconds and push all-in.

Something to consider: There are 3750 chips in the pot (625 from SB, 50 from BB, 150 from initial raiser, 625 MP1, 2150 MP3, and 150 from me)

Please let me know what you think, but make sure you have taken in all the information in this post before you do. There's a ton of different factors to consider, so it's prolly best to read this twice before responding. All constructive criticism is greatly appreciated.

Edit: Anyone that reads this should question my possible range of hands. Here are hands I can call the initial raise with and push expecting to have the best hand: Pairs QQ-99, AK, AQo, AKs, AQs and AJs. Out of all possible outcomes, the one I'm most worried about is getting a call from the guy to my right with a hand like ATo or 77. I'd expect him to fold those hands more often than not, but you never know.
There is no player in the hand who I think can conceivably have AA, KK, or QQ except for the SB who still has a 5% chance of angle shooting. MP1 seems way too weak to have QQ and would probably rearise it anyway. MP3 would certainly reraise the initial 150 with any of those hands.
-ZJ

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

I like the move, my first reaction was that I did not like the approx 35s stall before declaring all-in. Insta-allinned woulda been not so good either, but a shorter pause, like 10s would be better imo.
Other than that I think your reasoning is pretty good.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

Interesting development. I like the play (even w/o knowing your hand). There really seems to be little to worry about. Even if the one player who likely sees and knows why you're doing this there would be little he could do about it. He'd most likely still have to fold whatever he holds.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

I'm concerned about a lot here.

#1 He came in with a call when you describe him as usually coming in with a raise in this exact situation
#2 He puts in the third raise preflop but it doesn't seem to be enough to shut out his opposition, he seems content to let them come along for 2150 preflop and see what happens.
#3 I don't think he's going to believe you actually have a big hand here. He's coming with 66-88 as well as a big suited ace like aqs. (Hopefully you're not doing terrible, especially vs most of this range with the dead money, I dunno if you want to take this spot or not, it depends how good you think you are vs your table)
#4 In conclusion, I'm not seeing the same amount of fold equity as you might have decided you had. I probably would not go for it here since most likely I'm in a race or 60/40 with only like 1600 dead.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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I like the move, my first reaction was that I did not like the approx 35s stall before declaring all-in. Insta-allinned woulda been not so good either, but a shorter pause, like 10s would be better imo.
Other than that I think your reasoning is pretty good.

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35s was actually almost the only redeeming factor for me in this hand.

I think that would be the perfect amount of time if you are trying to sell 99. I think selling 99 here is important if possible since it would fold out smaller pairs from MP3. I'm curious if that is what ZJ was trying to represent.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

Did you consider betting a significant amount (but less than all in)?

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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Did you consider betting a significant amount (but less than all in)?

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Yes, briefly. If I have one of the legit hands mentioned above though, I'm definately gonna push them. Anything else just seems suspicious.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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SB throws in a purple (500) and a black (100) chip.

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At first blush I like it. Everything seems to be alligned. The MP1 doesn't want to go home. The SB didn't even mean to raise, much less call all in. The biggest worry is that the tricky player decides to take the almost 1.8 odds and put you on a middle pair and call w/ his junky broadway or vice versa. I'm assuming that you are pretty positive that mr. tricky saw the SB's blunder, yes?


My guess is that you have about a .95 * .95 * .65 chance of getting it folded around. (55-60%)

When you are called by the MP1 or SB, you are likely around 25% equity. When you are called by the MP3, you are probably around 35-40% equity. (total rough intuition guesses without any hand range analysis).

Also, your image is obviously perfect for it.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

This is most assurdly a bad move in. You seem to be basing your play on the belief that the sb made a mistake and only meant to call the 150 raise. For your play to be correct you also must aasume that MP3 came to the same conclusion and now believe he can buy the pot. A lot of assumption to base your tournament life on.

Once you addd your 2k chips to the pot it becomes $5700 your raise makes it almost 13k he has to call ~7k to win 13k. The good chance that he might just have what he represents and the pot odds you are giving him given the range of other hands he might have plus your initial call in late position of a small raise I think your play is way off. Just and opinion.

Vince

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

While I don't hate the move and would argue that it is at least marginally +EV, it's a play I would avoid at this level of the tournament. With blinds this low and all the internet qualifiers still in, I think someone of your skill level could find better spots than this to get chips. My biggest problem with this move is that you called the initial raise after two callers. This almost always indicates some kind of hand that you want to play multiway (e.g. suited connectors, suited Ax, 22-88, etc.) I think it will be really hard to get a thinking player to fold 77-99 here or even two mid-broadway cards. Don't forget, tricky player might know you know why he raised.

That said, if this move did work (and I hope for your sake it did), I would turn those cards up in a heartbeat and show the table that you're nuts. I'd imagine showcasing here to be quite +EV until your table breaks.

Update us with the results! Also, good luck down there and please post more interesting hands/anectdotes from the island.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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I would turn those cards up in a heartbeat and show the table that you're nuts.

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That's gotta be a mistake.

Vince

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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I would turn those cards up in a heartbeat and show the table that you're nuts.

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That's gotta be a mistake.

Vince

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Not categorically. Depends on your game. My suggestion was in the context that I would plan on playing very tight/solid poker until my table breaks and hope to stack someone the next time I get a monster. Obviously, showing the cards here stymies future stealing opportunities, but again, it depends on your style.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

My fold equity in this hand doesn't have to be that high for me to make this play. The people I have talked to seem to both underestimate the amount I gain when I win the pot uncontested, and seem to vastly underestimate my chances of winning when called.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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My fold equity in this hand doesn't have to be that high for this play to make. The people I have talked to seem to both underestimate the amount I gain when I win the pot uncontested, and seem to vastly underestimate my chances of winning when called.

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I think you vastly overestimate your chances of winning PF.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

Wow, indeed a very interesting hand.

Before I can comment, you said

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He is the most aggressive player at the table,

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He rarely calls anything on any street.

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What do you think then his initial call to the UTG+2 raise mean?

And about:

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Here are hands I can call the initial raise with and push expecting to have the best hand: Pairs QQ-99, AK, AQo, AKs, AQs and AJs

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Do you think MP3 would think that?

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

Very good questions Sirio.

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What do you think then his initial call to the UTG+2 raise mean?


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After he calls 150, I would put his range of hands at 88-22, any suited connector except for AKs and 32s, any suited one gap other than 42s, Axs (except for AKs and probably not AQs), just about any broadway hand, suited or otherwise, and a few unsuited connector hands.

As for your second question, I don't think it's possible for him to call without the chance of me having TT or AQo crossing his mind. He's not an idiot. He may think JJ and QQ are out of the question, but probably not.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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Very good questions Sirio.

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What do you think then his initial call to the UTG+2 raise mean?


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After he calls 150, I would put his range of hands at 88-22, any suited connector except for AKs and 32s, any suited one gap other than 42s, Axs (except for AKs and probably not AQs), just about any broadway hand, suited or otherwise, and a few unsuited connector hands.

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and after his raise, what hands do you eliminate from that range?

Do you agree w/ my 55-60% total FE guesstimate? (including the SB and MP1)

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

My problem with this hand is that you consider 35 to be middle aged and 45 to be old.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

what kind of hand are you representing here with this play?

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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what kind of hand are you representing here with this play?

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I'd say 77-99 or AJs-AQs. But let's see what Justin says.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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After he calls 150, I would put his range of hands at 88-22, any suited connector except for AKs and 32s, any suited one gap other than 42s, Axs (except for AKs and probably not AQs), just about any broadway hand, suited or otherwise, and a few unsuited connector hands.


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Ok, but now after he raises to 2150, do you think he's still that weak? I mean, MP1 called 625, and you said he's not a good player, so, MP3 knows that most probably, MP1 will call this raise, so, looks like he wants to play with MP1; How does this fact affect MP3 range?

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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My problem with this hand is that you consider 35 to be middle aged and 45 to be old.

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Indeed. Ah, to be 18 again . . .

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

awesome.. very nice (regardless of the result).. i could see how maybe the aggressive guy would trap the initial raise, but once that SB did his accidental raise then aggressive guy would have been all over that pot (it's pretty juicy, obviously). And your raise is pretty damn big, and i think your fold equity is pretty good, and like you've said when you get called you're going to be like 43%.

Takes guts, and i really, really like it.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

Oh, and i think you'd have gotten a better response posting this in the MTT forum.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

I like the move, takes a lot of guts and I think is a winning strategy.
The only real drawback would be if you got called, won the hand (which is not as unlikely as some seem to assume) and then had to stay at the table for awhile. You'd have to adjust your game to your radically changed image and that would not be easy (well it's the kind of thing that isn't easy for me anyway).

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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and after his raise, what hands do you eliminate from that range?

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Why would you eliminate any hands from the original range? An aggressive player saw weakness (oops raise + call from weak player who is oop vs. the agg) and raised. Doesn't really tell you anything, does it?

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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My guess is that you have about a .95 * .95 * .65 chance of getting it folded around. (55-60%)

When you are called by the MP1 or SB, you are likely around 25% equity. When you are called by the MP3, you are probably around 35-40% equity. (total rough intuition guesses without any hand range analysis).

Also, your image is obviously perfect for it.

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If MP3 calls with 88-55, AQo-ATo, AQs-ATs, that puts you at around 42% equity and a chipEV of 8800 or so. If we open that up to {88-55, AQs-ATs, KQs-KJs, QJs, AQo-ATo, KQo-KJo, QJo} you're still at 39% and chipEV of 8100. I think it's reasonable to assume you're going to have around 40% equity there. Even { JJ-55, AKs-ATs, AKo-ATo } gives you that.

So. Ignoring overcalls for the moment, because it makes the math easier. Let's say you have 25% equity around 10% of the time vs { AA-JJ, AKs, AKo } (that's 27.5%, but figure AKo gets folded some) and 40% equity another 30% of the time. When you have that 25% equity the pot's going to be 22500 or so, and when you have 40% equity it's going to be 21000. If they all fold, your stack's at 13400.

0.25 * 0.1 * 22500 + 0.40 * 0.3 * 21000 + 0.6 * 13400 = 11100, so about 1500 better than folding.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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I like the move, takes a lot of guts and I think is a winning strategy.
The only real drawback would be if you got called, won the hand (which is not as unlikely as some seem to assume) and then had to stay at the table for awhile. You'd have to adjust your game to your radically changed image and that would not be easy (well it's the kind of thing that isn't easy for me anyway).

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That would be the perfect image. They would have no clue what to think of me. I am tight, but I risk all my chips with J9s?! I play one hand every 30 minutes, but it's a bluff? What do I do when I get a real hand?! They would have no clue how to play against me.

I certianly don't make plays like this very often, so if they start getting suspicious of my big all-ins, that's great for me.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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I like the move, takes a lot of guts and I think is a winning strategy.
The only real drawback would be if you got called, won the hand (which is not as unlikely as some seem to assume) and then had to stay at the table for awhile. You'd have to adjust your game to your radically changed image and that would not be easy (well it's the kind of thing that isn't easy for me anyway).

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That would be the perfect image. They would have no clue what to think of me. I am tight, but I risk all my chips with J9s?! I play one hand every 30 minutes, but it's a bluff? What do I do when I get a real hand?! They would have no clue how to play against me.

I certianly don't make plays like this very often, so if they start getting suspicious of my big all-ins, that's great for me.

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I agree completely. This is why I advocate a show if everyone folds to your all-in here.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

I'm guessing MP3 called ... so when are you posting results?

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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I'm guessing MP3 called ... so when are you posting results?

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I will post results... don't worry. There's still a lot of room for debate in several different aspects of this hand. I'd like to get some more opinions before I post the results.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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That's gotta be a mistake.

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Nah I think this is the perfect image for hero. I know I wouldn't want to get involved with him after showing a hand like that. Say you're in the BB with AJs and he raises from LP.. How are you going to feel about playing a pot with this guy? Who is going to have the balls to reraise him knowing he just risked his whole stack with J9s?

For the record I think the J9s move is +EV and ZJs numbers are pretty accurate. To those who have said that people are overestimating hero's FE, I have to disagree. This is a big tournament and players are more likely to lay down that early even if/when they smell a rat.

I'm a little worried about the SB accidental reraise with all those players in, but I wasn't there so it's difficult to comment on a read.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

I like it. The reraiser is aggressive and would probably make this play with whatever he called the first raise with, assuming he has the same read that you have of the small blind. This means you have an excellent chance of getting him to fold when you jam, and you're very unlikely to be smashed (because he almost certainly doesn't have KK/AA) when you get called. Honestly, I'm not even sure how much room for debate there is. I think you clearly made a good play here.

Matt

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

Are you trying to represent a big pair, if so, why would you limp behind all the limpers and than make a big reraise (all-in) in this spot? I think you would have raised initally with a big pair to thin the field. Of course I could be wrong and you could be trapping here, but if I were the other players, I'd be a bit suspicious. Having said that, I think I call if I were the other players with a very limited range, say 88-AA, AK-AKs. I would put you on either AK and are trying to win preflop or an outright steal. I would still however want a hand that compensates for the time you actually do have something, so my weaker holdings I'd throw away. It would work on me most of the time, I think it's a nice play.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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I like the move, takes a lot of guts and I think is a winning strategy.
The only real drawback would be if you got called, won the hand (which is not as unlikely as some seem to assume) and then had to stay at the table for awhile. You'd have to adjust your game to your radically changed image and that would not be easy (well it's the kind of thing that isn't easy for me anyway).

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That would be the perfect image. They would have no clue what to think of me. I am tight, but I risk all my chips with J9s?! I play one hand every 30 minutes, but it's a bluff? What do I do when I get a real hand?! They would have no clue how to play against me.

I certianly don't make plays like this very often, so if they start getting suspicious of my big all-ins, that's great for me.

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Yea, I could see how that would be the case. My thinking was that even while playing tight (which would be my day 1 approach) you want to have the power to execute semi-bluffs and get people to lay down the best hand when a good pf hand missed the board.

Perhaps this doesn't apply to better players, but if I had a very loose image while the blinds are still very small I fear I would be at the mercy of the cards, in that I could score huge if I got good cards, but would be completely handcuffed by a cold deck.

Yet, under the hypothetical we are talking about you would be doubling up here, so even if you didn't play another hand until the table break, you would be in fine shape.

So I can see where the maniac image would actually be a benefit if skillfully handled.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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Are you trying to represent a big pair, if so, why would you limp behind all the limpers and than make a big reraise (all-in) in this spot? I think you would have raised initally with a big pair to thin the field. Of course I could be wrong and you could be trapping here, but if I were the other players, I'd be a bit suspicious. Having said that, I think I call if I were the other players with a very limited range, say 88-AA, AK-AKs. I would put you on either AK and are trying to win preflop or an outright steal. I would still however want a hand that compensates for the time you actually do have something, so my weaker holdings I'd throw away. It would work on me most of the time, I think it's a nice play.

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Please reread my post. You have several big peices of information wrong. I did not limp preflop, and I never said I was trying to represent a big pair (unless you consider 99 a big pair).

More Info About SB 625 Raise
 

Everyone at the table knew what happened with the SB. While he was still semi-confused, Dave actually flipped the purple chip over so the big 500 written on it was showing. I would be very surprised if anyone at the table was not aware of what happened.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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Honestly, I'm not even sure how much room for debate there is. I think you clearly made a good play here.

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I agree Matt, but if the table was tougher, would you still think it would be a good play to use?

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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n the hand in question blinds are 25/50. Utg (Dave Williams) and Utg+1 fold. Semi-Tight UTG+2 makes it 150. MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls. I call J9s in the CO. Button folds. SB throws in a purple (500) and a black (100) chip. The dealer announces raise. He flinches as he starts to say, "no..." looks at the chips in the pot, and says, "ok" and kind of shrugs. BB folds. Initial raisor folds. MP1 calls. MP3 thinks for a few seconds and throws in two yellow chips. I'm next to act.

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I call J9s in the CO.

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You called the raise initially right, then you moved in when the action came back around to you. I'm saying you probably would have reraised the 1st time with a big pair. Still I don't think the other players can call you unless they have something strong.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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because he almost certainly doesn't have KK/AA

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what move by MP3 made you think this Matt?

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This means you have an excellent chance of getting him to fold when you jam, and you're very unlikely to be smashed (because he almost certainly doesn't have KK/AA) when you get called. Honestly, I'm not even sure how much room for debate there is.

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You think the combination of the folding % by MP3 + the winning % by J9s when called; it's big enough +EV to not have room for debate here?

You think the %folding by MP3 is great even if he suspect what ZJ is doing?