Two Plus Two Older Archives

Two Plus Two Older Archives (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/index.php)
-   Stud (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/forumdisplay.php?f=18)
-   -   20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved. (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=403809)

Michael Emery 12-23-2005 01:01 AM

20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
Thought I'd share a hand that should have hit the muck on third when I was raised, but then a loose call on my end led to disaster. Hell, I dont know though. You tell me how bad it is. Motivation for calling the raise on third was that the 3 seat had been playing EVERY hand dealt to him and was not a concern as he just held a random holding. The four seat is someone who I have never seen in this game before. The bottom line in my mind is that I should have folded third due to the fact that 1.) I have a dead nine + 2.) The fact that I think most unknown players are going to have a hand like (TT)-(AA)8 when they make it $40 here. And the fact that there arent any overacrds exposed on third higher than my nine, with the exception of the one king, makes that concern even more likely. What I really want to talk about here is simply the third srteet call and what others have to say about it.

7 Card Stud High ($20/$40), Ante $2, Bring-In $5 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___completes___calls
Seat 2: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 5: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (6.95 SB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___double bets
Seat 3: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (5.48 BB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets___calls

6th Street - (9.48 BB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets___calls

River - (13.48 BB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___checks___calls

Total pot: (15.48 BB)

Andy B 12-23-2005 01:38 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
With a dead Nine and a puny ante, did you give any thought to folding third on the first pass? I'd raise myself, but I've always been an optimist.

I think you were right to call the raise. I think it's safe to assume that it's not going to get raised behind you, so you're getting around 6:1. Of course that's a little misleading, because you're going to be calling on fourth street most of the time. Anyway, if he does have a big pair in the hole, he can't make two pair without you knowing it (except on the river), and you play good, at least to hear you tell it, so how bad can it be? Folding might be better, but I don't think it is by much.

Michael Emery 12-23-2005 01:59 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
[ QUOTE ]
With a dead Nine and a puny ante, did you give any thought to folding third on the first pass? I'd raise myself, but I've always been an optimist.


[/ QUOTE ]

Theres only one overcard and the 3 seat is playing every holding. The possibility that I have the best hand and the guarantee that he calls with some BS like (32)6 off makes it an easy raise. Theres nothing more that I'd like to just end up heads-up on third with him. FWIW though, I raise here in this situation every time.

[ QUOTE ]
I think you were right to call the raise. I think it's safe to assume that it's not going to get raised behind you, so you're getting around 6:1. Of course that's a little misleading, because you're going to be calling on fourth street most of the time. Anyway, if he does have a big pair in the hole, he can't make two pair without you knowing it (except on the river)

[/ QUOTE ]

So what are you suggesting? Those 6-1 odds are very misleading if I not only call fourth but continue beyond that under the assumption that "he cant make two pair w/out me knowing it". Like I said, I think its more likely that he'll hold a big pocket pair here, but I cant be sure. After all, this is an unknown player. Is the possibility that I'm likely behind plus the fact that I'll never know exactly where I'm at enough to fold? This hand could get tricky on later streets.

[ QUOTE ]
and you play good, at least to hear you tell it

[/ QUOTE ]

What is that supposed to mean?

BTirish 12-23-2005 02:08 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
I don't think the call on 3rd is so bad. What makes it borderline is the dead 9... but he's possibly raising to isolate with 8-A-8, or he's popping with Ah-Kh-8h or something similar. If he's raising with a big pair in the hole, then you get to try to hit two pair before 5th, and you know when he has made two pair.

Given how the hand played, it looks like he was rolled up. You caught your best card, and then he re-drew on you.

Michael Emery 12-23-2005 02:11 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
[ QUOTE ]
Given how the hand played, it looks like he was rolled up. You caught your best card, and then he re-drew on you.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yep [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

BTirish 12-23-2005 02:29 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
Also, you probably don't want to hear it, but I think you can save this river bet. You have said three times now "seriously, I have trip 9's or better" and he's still in the hand. I do like your play on all other streets, though.

MichaelOar 12-23-2005 03:22 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
Unlike the last abomination you posted, I like this one on every street. I don't really understand where you think you could have done something differently. 3rd is super-fine, IMHO.

Michael

Jeffage 12-23-2005 03:35 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
This hand reminds me of a nice one I played at the Taj Mahal where I shot off about $900 after I caught my miracle card on 4th vs. rolled trips and then proceeded to catch brick-brick-mfbrick as my opponent rivered a boat.

That said, I don't see myself folding here to a 3rd street reraise vs a doorcard lower than the pair I have. If he would NEVER raise with 8's here, then that's something to consider but I don't think that's the case online. I'm sure you'll play well on subsequent streets.

One exception to calling the 3rd street raise is if your opp is the kind of player that will automatically fold something like AA if you pair your door. If this is the case and you are close to 100% positive he would only bang 3rd with the bigger pair, you can probably let it go cause the hand can't really be played for profit then. But I think a lot of people are going upstairs with 8's here online. Just some random, semi inebriated thoughts.

Jeff
(Two days until some nice 50 stud at Bellagio)

mscags 12-23-2005 03:52 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
Mike,
I don't think the third street call is that bad. I think a case could be made for folding third the first time through since you have a dead nine and there is a small ante, but no one is very threatening behind you. When it comes back to you it seems like a call is fine. You almost have to put your opponent on a big pair in the hole. If this is the case than you can be pretty confident when he hits two pair or trips. Since you play well after third I think you can make this call.

Take this with a grain of salt of course because stud hi is not my game

Scags

MichaelOar 12-23-2005 05:18 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
Glad I'm not the only one tossing out inebriated thoughts!

Michael

Andy B 12-23-2005 09:42 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
[ QUOTE ]
What is that supposed to mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm playin'.

frappeboy 12-23-2005 09:43 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
Mike this is an interesting hand. I think you can be close to 100% sure that you have the second best hand here, but that's not the only thing you have going for you. If seat 3 really has a random holding, it usually becomes correct, or close to it, to play the second best hand.

You also have another thing going for you this hand, and that is your opponent probably has a big pair in the hole. So you can simply fold when he makes a pair on board. This gives you a play advantage later in the hand. So on hands that are marginal, it usually swings them from slightly unprofitable to slightly profitable.

But even given all of these factors, your 9 is dead, which really really sucks. I think if your hand was live you would be correct to call and be prepared to see the river unless seat 4 makes an open pair.

Sorry he was rolled up. I play the hand the same as you 4th-7th.

MRBAA 12-23-2005 09:52 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
The third street call is not great -- it's probably okay to fold but it'snot a huge mistake with the bad third player in.

I"m curious about why you raised sixth and then bet the river unimproved as well?

frappeboy 12-23-2005 11:43 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
[ QUOTE ]
I"m curious about why you raised sixth and then bet the river unimproved as well?

[/ QUOTE ]

Clearly the most likely hand for his opponent is pocket TT-KK here. If you fail to raise 6th street and bet the river you are making a big mistake. Mike just got unlucky his opponent was rolled.

MRBAA 12-23-2005 01:17 PM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
I read it differently. Unless opponent is a maniac, Mike is making it pretty clear that his paired door means trips on fifth. I might raise sixth OR I might be the river if checked to, but I would not do both, for fear my opponent has filled.

TakeMeToTheRiver 12-23-2005 01:50 PM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
[ QUOTE ]
Also, you probably don't want to hear it, but I think you can save this river bet. You have said three times now "seriously, I have trip 9's or better" and he's still in the hand. I do like your play on all other streets, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this -- but I am not a regular stud player. How do you justify the bet on the river?

Michael Emery 12-23-2005 10:44 PM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
[ QUOTE ]
I"m curious about why you raised sixth and then bet the river unimproved as well?



[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with this -- but I am not a regular stud player. How do you justify the bet on the river?


[/ QUOTE ]

Frappes response below is exactly why. You cant check the river here.

[ QUOTE ]
Clearly the most likely hand for his opponent is pocket TT-KK here. If you fail to raise 6th street and bet the river you are making a big mistake. Mike just got unlucky his opponent was rolled.

[/ QUOTE ]

BTirish 12-24-2005 01:09 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
I don't see that frappe gave a reason why missing a bet on the river is bad--he just said that it was. I'm asking why. What reasonable opponent would bet out on 6th after being raised on 5th by a paired door unless he could beat trips?

I still like the 6th street raise, because you may buy a cheap showdown and get more money in when you do fill up. But I take it that the raise on 6th says to your opponent "I'm already full." But the river is a perfect spot for your opponent to check-raise if he has aces full, or to value call if he has 8's full.

frappeboy 12-24-2005 09:52 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
[ QUOTE ]
What reasonable opponent would bet out on 6th after being raised on 5th by a paired door unless he could beat trips?

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is where the misconception lies, not all players are reasonable. Not only that, but if I was the guy with open Aces, and had pocket kings, I'd bet 6th street because the 9 was dead on 3rd street.

As for the river bet, how many people are gonna fold aces up on the river with a big pot? I figure you'll get called here by ATLEAST 50% of the players who play on partypoker, and I think that estimate is very conservative.

Think about how great this value bet was for Mike. He ran into the biggest hand his opponent could have, and he didn't even get raised on 6th or the river!

BTirish 12-24-2005 04:33 PM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
Even at 1/2 and 2/4, I give opponents some credit for their aggression until I see them make a dumb play. I would assume that this is an even better policy at 20/40. I don't think you get to assume both that the villain in this hand is sub-reasonable and that he remembers the dead 9 and therefore figures there is value in leading out on 6th.

My point is that the holdings for which his 6th street play are the most reasonable are trip A's or 8's full. Obviously he played 5th street a little weak, but he likely got the same amount of bets in that he would have in the end. It might be true that more than 50% of the time an opponent here would pay off with A's up, but I don't think it's obvious that the opponent has A's up most of the time here for the bet to be valuable.

There are a lot more ways that he can have a single A in the hole than TT to KK. Sure, being rolled up is the least likely mathematically... but do we just never suspect that an opponent is likely rolled up and save a bet? We all consider calling down against a paired door card a mistake, and I usually consider a game at 1/2 or 2/4 where one or two opponents consistently do so a really juicy game.

benwood 12-24-2005 05:48 PM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
Assuming that seat 3 is going to call 3rd & 4th,you get 6 to 1 on 3rd,which pretty much propels you into a call on 4th,getting 9 to 1 at that point.So,looking at the 2 streets together,you're getting 4 to 1 on the 3rd/4th combo,which looks like a pretty reasonable shot with this hand,imo.I believe it's right to call 3rd,intending to also call 4th,unless something unexpected happens.

12-25-2005 12:28 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
I think you overplayed 3rd completely. I would've mucked it without too much consideration. Why even call the B.I. when one of your 9's are dead? I'm lost here. You're just setting yourself up for a big chase situation. Not wise IMO...

Knoll

Michael Emery 12-25-2005 01:07 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think you overplayed 3rd completely.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol. I did? By completing and then simply calling one bet back to me?

[ QUOTE ]
I would've mucked it without too much consideration. Why even call the B.I. when one of your 9's are dead?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because a few people have folded and theres only one overcard behind me.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm lost here. You're just setting yourself up for a big chase situation. Not wise IMO...

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're lost its probably due to the fact that you have 60 posts. That and that you likely didnt bother to read the reasoning I gave or the responses of others. Perhaps you should have some more experience playing stud and posting about it before you tell me that I "overplayed something completely" and that it "wasnt wise"?

Mike Emery

frappeboy 12-25-2005 10:34 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
Ok fine, keep on checking hands when you fear your opponent is rolled up and I'll keep on betting my hands.

MRBAA 12-25-2005 12:46 PM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
At lower limits, I am about as aggressive as it gets. But my hand reading would have had me back off on sixth or not bet on seventh. But it does depend on opponent and his perception of you, of course.

12-26-2005 09:24 PM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
[ QUOTE ]
If you're lost its probably due to the fact that you have 60 posts.

[/ QUOTE ]
How does the number of posts I've made determine whether or not I'm a successful Stud player? Is it due to the date when I found out about this site or when I started playing the game? Hmmm...

[ QUOTE ]
lol. I did? By completing and then simply calling one bet back to me?


[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, exactly by doing so. Completing was wrong and calling was wrong = Overplay.

[ QUOTE ]
Because a few people have folded and theres only one overcard behind me.


[/ QUOTE ]
I love when people rationalize poor play. "Because this or because that", always an excuse.

By the Way, you did title this thread as "20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved." Well you got what you deserved, now take it like a man and not a whinning baby.

Not My Opinion, Just Fact!
Knoll

CJC 12-26-2005 09:30 PM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
Hi,

[ QUOTE ]
How does the number of posts I've made determine whether or not I'm a successful Stud player?

[/ QUOTE ]

True, I have only something like 500 or so, but I have been posting and playing for years and years. Hell, give me an opponent that has 5000 posts and you bet I will teach him a thing or two about this game. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

CJ

Disclaimer - Stud games only.. FLop games aren't my specialty................ yet.... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Mac 12-26-2005 10:02 PM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
[ QUOTE ]

If you're lost its probably due to the fact that you have 60 posts. That and that you likely didnt bother to read the reasoning I gave or the responses of others. Perhaps you should have some more experience playing stud and posting about it before you tell me that I "overplayed something completely" and that it "wasnt wise"?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm surprised so many people have your back on this forum. Sometimes you really come off like a prickish egomaniac.

- Mac

Andy B 12-26-2005 10:19 PM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
Whaddya got against prickish egomaniacs?

Andy B 12-26-2005 10:31 PM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
[ QUOTE ]
Hell, give me an opponent that has 5000 posts and you bet I will teach him a thing or two about this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK.

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Michael Emery 12-26-2005 10:45 PM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised so many people have your back on this forum. Sometimes you really come off like a prickish egomaniac.

- Mac


[/ QUOTE ]

Now someone with 112 posts speaks up.

[ QUOTE ]
I love when people rationalize poor play. "Because this or because that", always an excuse.


[/ QUOTE ]

I gave completely logical reasons for what I did. Judging from your brief analysis my guess is that you suck at stud. Mac, this goes for you too. The only reason I jumped on your case was because you came off as an all knowing prodigy that made it sound like my play was terrible and that was that.

While my third street play in this hand was questionable theres far from a correct answer here. Did you happen to notice that the final consensus was that my third street call wasnt that bad? I'm still not saying its right or wrong, just that its up in the air, unlike you indicated. Why dont you both just scoot on back to your low limit games until you learn a thing ot two more, fish. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Mike Emery

CJC 12-26-2005 11:12 PM

LOL.
 
You are still a trip Andy...

=)

When the heck are you getting back out here to Foxwoods?

Mac 12-26-2005 11:21 PM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
112 posts, but I can tell I definitely get laid way more than you do!!

Message board battling is always no win, so I'm not gonna get too nasty. Everyone plays for different reasons. I play recreationally in my low limit game because I enjoy the game. You've taken the game seriously and moved up (which i love to see). I take offense when you piss on people trying to constructively give advice (particularly in a forum as chill as the stud forum). It's a definite personality flaw. Also, post count is low but I'm old-school, '02, back when there were only MRB, Andy, and CJC critiquing each other's play. OK, off to the 3/6..

- Mac

benwood 12-26-2005 11:41 PM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
Mike.Why ask for advice if you don't want it?

Alex/Mugaaz 12-26-2005 11:56 PM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
His problem with it was that the criticism wasn't constructive, and the advice wasn't good. As long as you give good advice you can be a huge prick. Sklansky isn't exactly the most friendly person in the world, but on a message board about poker strategy why the hell does etiquette matter? If the advice comes from a poster who is an arrogant 400 pound monitor tan dickweed or a charming millionaire playboy, what difference does that make to me?

frappeboy 12-27-2005 12:21 AM

NEW RULE
 
IF YOU SUCK AT STUD DON'T BOTHER GIVING ADVICE!

Andy B 12-27-2005 12:38 AM

Re: LOL.
 
I'm actually in Connecticut right now, but decided to do barbecue instead tonight. 'Tweren't bad. Not Arthur Bryant's, not even Famous Dave's, but good nonetheless. I'm tentatively planning on playing in the $1000 stud event in the 2006 World Series, and I'm making a quick trip to the Borgata to see the Pogues in March. I probably won't get back to Foxwoods until next December.

Andy B 12-27-2005 12:48 AM

Denied
 
One thing that helped me out tremendously a few years ago was having some dubious posts torn to shreds by more experienced players. Everyone should have the same opportunity.

Alex/Mugaaz 12-27-2005 01:23 AM

Re: LOL.
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'm actually in Connecticut right now, but decided to do barbecue instead tonight. 'Tweren't bad. Not Arthur Bryant's, not even Famous Dave's, but good nonetheless. I'm tentatively planning on playing in the $1000 stud event in the 2006 World Series, and I'm making a quick trip to the Borgata to see the Pogues in March. I probably won't get back to Foxwoods until next December.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a 30% chance I'll be going to this too.

Andy B 12-27-2005 01:40 AM

Re: LOL.
 
If you're talking about The Pogues, get your tickets sooner rather than later. Most of their dates have sold out. If you're talking about the WSOP, I look remarkably like the handsome young gentleman in the picture at left. Feel free to say "hi" if I'm not in a hand.


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:30 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions Inc.