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-   -   20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved. (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=403809)

Andy B 12-23-2005 09:42 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
[ QUOTE ]
What is that supposed to mean?

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I'm playin'.

frappeboy 12-23-2005 09:43 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
Mike this is an interesting hand. I think you can be close to 100% sure that you have the second best hand here, but that's not the only thing you have going for you. If seat 3 really has a random holding, it usually becomes correct, or close to it, to play the second best hand.

You also have another thing going for you this hand, and that is your opponent probably has a big pair in the hole. So you can simply fold when he makes a pair on board. This gives you a play advantage later in the hand. So on hands that are marginal, it usually swings them from slightly unprofitable to slightly profitable.

But even given all of these factors, your 9 is dead, which really really sucks. I think if your hand was live you would be correct to call and be prepared to see the river unless seat 4 makes an open pair.

Sorry he was rolled up. I play the hand the same as you 4th-7th.

MRBAA 12-23-2005 09:52 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
The third street call is not great -- it's probably okay to fold but it'snot a huge mistake with the bad third player in.

I"m curious about why you raised sixth and then bet the river unimproved as well?

frappeboy 12-23-2005 11:43 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
[ QUOTE ]
I"m curious about why you raised sixth and then bet the river unimproved as well?

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Clearly the most likely hand for his opponent is pocket TT-KK here. If you fail to raise 6th street and bet the river you are making a big mistake. Mike just got unlucky his opponent was rolled.

MRBAA 12-23-2005 01:17 PM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
I read it differently. Unless opponent is a maniac, Mike is making it pretty clear that his paired door means trips on fifth. I might raise sixth OR I might be the river if checked to, but I would not do both, for fear my opponent has filled.

TakeMeToTheRiver 12-23-2005 01:50 PM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
[ QUOTE ]
Also, you probably don't want to hear it, but I think you can save this river bet. You have said three times now "seriously, I have trip 9's or better" and he's still in the hand. I do like your play on all other streets, though.

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I agree with this -- but I am not a regular stud player. How do you justify the bet on the river?

Michael Emery 12-23-2005 10:44 PM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
[ QUOTE ]
I"m curious about why you raised sixth and then bet the river unimproved as well?



[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with this -- but I am not a regular stud player. How do you justify the bet on the river?


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Frappes response below is exactly why. You cant check the river here.

[ QUOTE ]
Clearly the most likely hand for his opponent is pocket TT-KK here. If you fail to raise 6th street and bet the river you are making a big mistake. Mike just got unlucky his opponent was rolled.

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BTirish 12-24-2005 01:09 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
I don't see that frappe gave a reason why missing a bet on the river is bad--he just said that it was. I'm asking why. What reasonable opponent would bet out on 6th after being raised on 5th by a paired door unless he could beat trips?

I still like the 6th street raise, because you may buy a cheap showdown and get more money in when you do fill up. But I take it that the raise on 6th says to your opponent "I'm already full." But the river is a perfect spot for your opponent to check-raise if he has aces full, or to value call if he has 8's full.

frappeboy 12-24-2005 09:52 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
[ QUOTE ]
What reasonable opponent would bet out on 6th after being raised on 5th by a paired door unless he could beat trips?

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Here is where the misconception lies, not all players are reasonable. Not only that, but if I was the guy with open Aces, and had pocket kings, I'd bet 6th street because the 9 was dead on 3rd street.

As for the river bet, how many people are gonna fold aces up on the river with a big pot? I figure you'll get called here by ATLEAST 50% of the players who play on partypoker, and I think that estimate is very conservative.

Think about how great this value bet was for Mike. He ran into the biggest hand his opponent could have, and he didn't even get raised on 6th or the river!

BTirish 12-24-2005 04:33 PM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
Even at 1/2 and 2/4, I give opponents some credit for their aggression until I see them make a dumb play. I would assume that this is an even better policy at 20/40. I don't think you get to assume both that the villain in this hand is sub-reasonable and that he remembers the dead 9 and therefore figures there is value in leading out on 6th.

My point is that the holdings for which his 6th street play are the most reasonable are trip A's or 8's full. Obviously he played 5th street a little weak, but he likely got the same amount of bets in that he would have in the end. It might be true that more than 50% of the time an opponent here would pay off with A's up, but I don't think it's obvious that the opponent has A's up most of the time here for the bet to be valuable.

There are a lot more ways that he can have a single A in the hole than TT to KK. Sure, being rolled up is the least likely mathematically... but do we just never suspect that an opponent is likely rolled up and save a bet? We all consider calling down against a paired door card a mistake, and I usually consider a game at 1/2 or 2/4 where one or two opponents consistently do so a really juicy game.


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