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-   -   20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved. (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=403809)

Michael Emery 12-23-2005 01:01 AM

20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
Thought I'd share a hand that should have hit the muck on third when I was raised, but then a loose call on my end led to disaster. Hell, I dont know though. You tell me how bad it is. Motivation for calling the raise on third was that the 3 seat had been playing EVERY hand dealt to him and was not a concern as he just held a random holding. The four seat is someone who I have never seen in this game before. The bottom line in my mind is that I should have folded third due to the fact that 1.) I have a dead nine + 2.) The fact that I think most unknown players are going to have a hand like (TT)-(AA)8 when they make it $40 here. And the fact that there arent any overacrds exposed on third higher than my nine, with the exception of the one king, makes that concern even more likely. What I really want to talk about here is simply the third srteet call and what others have to say about it.

7 Card Stud High ($20/$40), Ante $2, Bring-In $5 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___completes___calls
Seat 2: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 5: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (6.95 SB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___double bets
Seat 3: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (5.48 BB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets___calls

6th Street - (9.48 BB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets___calls

River - (13.48 BB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___checks___calls

Total pot: (15.48 BB)

Andy B 12-23-2005 01:38 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
With a dead Nine and a puny ante, did you give any thought to folding third on the first pass? I'd raise myself, but I've always been an optimist.

I think you were right to call the raise. I think it's safe to assume that it's not going to get raised behind you, so you're getting around 6:1. Of course that's a little misleading, because you're going to be calling on fourth street most of the time. Anyway, if he does have a big pair in the hole, he can't make two pair without you knowing it (except on the river), and you play good, at least to hear you tell it, so how bad can it be? Folding might be better, but I don't think it is by much.

Michael Emery 12-23-2005 01:59 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
[ QUOTE ]
With a dead Nine and a puny ante, did you give any thought to folding third on the first pass? I'd raise myself, but I've always been an optimist.


[/ QUOTE ]

Theres only one overcard and the 3 seat is playing every holding. The possibility that I have the best hand and the guarantee that he calls with some BS like (32)6 off makes it an easy raise. Theres nothing more that I'd like to just end up heads-up on third with him. FWIW though, I raise here in this situation every time.

[ QUOTE ]
I think you were right to call the raise. I think it's safe to assume that it's not going to get raised behind you, so you're getting around 6:1. Of course that's a little misleading, because you're going to be calling on fourth street most of the time. Anyway, if he does have a big pair in the hole, he can't make two pair without you knowing it (except on the river)

[/ QUOTE ]

So what are you suggesting? Those 6-1 odds are very misleading if I not only call fourth but continue beyond that under the assumption that "he cant make two pair w/out me knowing it". Like I said, I think its more likely that he'll hold a big pocket pair here, but I cant be sure. After all, this is an unknown player. Is the possibility that I'm likely behind plus the fact that I'll never know exactly where I'm at enough to fold? This hand could get tricky on later streets.

[ QUOTE ]
and you play good, at least to hear you tell it

[/ QUOTE ]

What is that supposed to mean?

BTirish 12-23-2005 02:08 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
I don't think the call on 3rd is so bad. What makes it borderline is the dead 9... but he's possibly raising to isolate with 8-A-8, or he's popping with Ah-Kh-8h or something similar. If he's raising with a big pair in the hole, then you get to try to hit two pair before 5th, and you know when he has made two pair.

Given how the hand played, it looks like he was rolled up. You caught your best card, and then he re-drew on you.

Michael Emery 12-23-2005 02:11 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
[ QUOTE ]
Given how the hand played, it looks like he was rolled up. You caught your best card, and then he re-drew on you.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yep [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

BTirish 12-23-2005 02:29 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
Also, you probably don't want to hear it, but I think you can save this river bet. You have said three times now "seriously, I have trip 9's or better" and he's still in the hand. I do like your play on all other streets, though.

MichaelOar 12-23-2005 03:22 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
Unlike the last abomination you posted, I like this one on every street. I don't really understand where you think you could have done something differently. 3rd is super-fine, IMHO.

Michael

Jeffage 12-23-2005 03:35 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
This hand reminds me of a nice one I played at the Taj Mahal where I shot off about $900 after I caught my miracle card on 4th vs. rolled trips and then proceeded to catch brick-brick-mfbrick as my opponent rivered a boat.

That said, I don't see myself folding here to a 3rd street reraise vs a doorcard lower than the pair I have. If he would NEVER raise with 8's here, then that's something to consider but I don't think that's the case online. I'm sure you'll play well on subsequent streets.

One exception to calling the 3rd street raise is if your opp is the kind of player that will automatically fold something like AA if you pair your door. If this is the case and you are close to 100% positive he would only bang 3rd with the bigger pair, you can probably let it go cause the hand can't really be played for profit then. But I think a lot of people are going upstairs with 8's here online. Just some random, semi inebriated thoughts.

Jeff
(Two days until some nice 50 stud at Bellagio)

mscags 12-23-2005 03:52 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
Mike,
I don't think the third street call is that bad. I think a case could be made for folding third the first time through since you have a dead nine and there is a small ante, but no one is very threatening behind you. When it comes back to you it seems like a call is fine. You almost have to put your opponent on a big pair in the hole. If this is the case than you can be pretty confident when he hits two pair or trips. Since you play well after third I think you can make this call.

Take this with a grain of salt of course because stud hi is not my game

Scags

MichaelOar 12-23-2005 05:18 AM

Re: 20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.
 
Glad I'm not the only one tossing out inebriated thoughts!

Michael


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