Re: \"Good\" Lay-down?
 

Unfortunately he doesn't provide a read on MP2 either, but since he hasn't raised yet, you're more inclinded to think he'll overcall > fold > raise than raise.

Re: \"Good\" Lay-down?
 

Many players would bet any ace here because they don't want you checking behind and figure they're going to call a bet so they'd rather be the one to put it in. If you are making this fold routinely then your biggest leak is that you fold too much on the river for one bet.

Re: \"Good\" Lay-down?
 

[ QUOTE ]
-Edit- I'm working on the opposite leak. I'm trying to learn to call in big pots on the river even when it looks like I'm beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

That I have no problem with. It's when the scare card comes and two people wake up and there's a bet and a raise in front of me, and I have a strong but not monster hand. There've been a handful of times where I've folded two pair, trips, or the bitch straight to some aggro punk.

Re: \"Good\" Lay-down?
 

Here is the link I was looking for:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...amp;PHPSESSID=

Re: \"Good\" Lay-down?
 

that thread completely changed the way I looked at poker (for the better)

Re: \"Good\" Lay-down?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You will be good about 10.61% of the time, so it is +EV to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

My calculations put it closer to 10.62...

Where the hell did you come up with this number, Tom?

Re: \"Good\" Lay-down?
 

I think you should call this; You don't have to win here that often (which you won't) but getting 10:1 I think this is a profitable call.

Swear when you get beat, smile when you win. But make the call.

Re: \"Good\" Lay-down?
 

If he is a standard player and he made his straight he's going to c/r you. Or am I giving him too much credit? Call it down and lose, you don't want those "creative players" taking shots at you.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: \"Good\" Lay-down?
 

Just to add one more possible holding, a flush draw might make this play with a scary river card like this.