poker
 

I was reading a poker book and the author said if you have 2 jacks there's about a 50% chance of getting an overcard on the flop(is that correct and if so would someone show me the way to figure it)


thanks

Re: poker
 

Actually it's 57%.


There are 12 overcards out of 50 before the flop, so the probability of NOT getting one on the flop is:


(38/50)*(37/49)*(36/48) = 43%


So the probability of getting one is 57%.

Re: poker
 

thanks for answering,however, do those numbers represent the odds of each card on the flop,for instance 38/50 is for the first cardwhich is about a 1in4 chanceof hitting an overcard,how do the next 2 cards move the odds to 57%? I am trying to understand


thanks again

Re: poker
 

Yes, each number is the probability of each card on the flop not being an overcard.

Re: poker
 

I should say, each number is the probability of each successive card on the flop not being an overcard given that the preceding card(s) were not overcards.

Re: poker
 

The more useful number in this situation is the probability that you get a jack or do not get an overcard.