Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

So here is the setup. Was just in the PS $5.50 Turbo rebuy for the WSOP $160 Double Shootout.

Top 17 make it, next 4 get small payouts.

22 Left in tourney, running Hand for Hand

I am the absolute Big Stack in the tourney at this point. No question I can fold my way in. Blinds are 4K-8K, about to go up to 8K-12K. I have close to 90K. There are many short stacks.

Folded to me in the SB. Hero has 23os. BB to my left is a short stack. He has 5K after posting. If he folds, and the blinds go up, he will be all-in next hand. I am not looking to help him (or hurt myself). Do I push with 23os? and likely feed him chips? or do I fold and definetely feed him chips - folding gets his stack to about 19k before posting the next hand's SB. If I fold the guy makes it. I make it either way.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t8000 (7 handed) converter

CO (t11340)
Button (t32325)
Hero (t88240)
BB (t13520)
UTG (t29245)
MP1 (t33290)
MP2 (t8941)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">

So what do you do?

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

fold, you said yourself you get in either way.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

Build a time machine, go back in time 5 minutes before this hand, put yourself on 'post and fold', grab a beer and fix yourself a sandwich.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

Does your answer change if I have AA, or at this point should I just not interfere, and let the small stacks fight it out?

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

[ QUOTE ]
fold, you said yourself you get in either way.

[/ QUOTE ]

You may have a big stack, but I think you have zero fold equity with someone in desperation mode.

If BB knows that blinds are going up next hand, he will blinded out as SB anyways. He might as well make his stand now and hope to double up to survive another orbit.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

FOLD. You don't need to be the table Cop and bust the table out. BB knows he can't fold to the seat and if he has 2 cards he should call which beat 3 high.

You already said it- you can fold to the seat and I assume that is the goal. You must keep the goal in mind.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

Post and fold until you win your seat, and it's not even close. You're in. Just win.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

If you had built the time machine, you would have altered the space time continuum and the hands you got would be different, so, no.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

Assume he calls you with no matter what he has (since he will be allin on the next hand anyway). You win 32% of the time, so your chip equity is:

-13520 * .68 + 13520 * .32 = -9193.6 + 4326.4 = -4867.2.

If you fold, your chip equity is -4000. So if he always calls, fold.

Now, assume he calls x% of the time (not dependant on his cards as much as on whether you think he will try to fold into the seat). Your chip equity is thus (-4867.2) * x + 8000 * (1-x) = 8000 - 12876.2x &gt; -4000 or x &lt; 93.26%. So if you think he will fold 7% of the time then you should push.

Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
 

well of course if you have AA's that is different and you you have a chance to actually eliminate a player without risking a big part of your stack with a hand that is a huge favorite to win.