3bet fold to a cap?
 

villian (on btn) is a 20/17 over ~ 400 hands. he's almsot definetly a 2p2er. 2 thigns i've noticed.

one hand earlier he has KJs. another very likely 2p2er opens in mp, he 3bets on btn. flop ATx, mp check raises, btn calls, turn J mp bets, co raises and and takes a free showdown.

i had one hand with him. he opens in mp i 3bet on co/btn with AA he calls. flop KJx he checks i bet he calls. turn x he checks i bet he calls river x he bets i raise he folds.

so onto the hand:


arty Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. MP posts a blind of $5.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, MP folds.

Flop: (5.40 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (6.70 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero....

stealthcow-

Re: 3bet fold to a cap?
 

Hmm... usually 2p2ers are more aggressive with flush draws and overcards, right? This definitely looks like KQ or AQ from villain - which will call, but not cap. I can't say I've ever tried this play, but it sounds reasonable. I'm interested to read what others say.

Re: 3bet fold to a cap?
 

i think calling is better than not getting to showdown

Re: 3bet fold to a cap?
 

I think the only problem might be that he won't pay off with a big Q, and in fact is planning to raise-fold himself. You would expect him to call KQ here?

Re: 3bet fold to a cap?
 

I'm not sure how often he's going to pay off with one pair hands here. his range does seem pretty narrow, but there are 16 combos of AQ/KQ out, AT/AK diamonds, is KT possible? could be I can't decide.. It seems like you would have heard more from nut flush draws. He only needs to pay off a low % of the time with Qx to make this good.

Re: 3bet fold to a cap?
 

QT is definitely part of his range as well. he shouldn't call a 3-bet but he probably would.

Q9 could also be part of his range, and he'd definitely call.

Re: 3bet fold to a cap?
 

As a standard line against normal opponents, a three-bet here would be spew IMO. Against this opponent, there may be some value in a three-bet. I probably just call though.

Re: 3bet fold to a cap?
 

I think if AQ is possible, then KT is possible; for both of these the turn call seems a little loose for a TAG, although he could put Hero on a draw given the nature of the board.

Why do you say he needs to pay off with a Q a low % of the time? If we ballpark that we're ahead 60% the time here (this is a rough estimate, do you think it's close?), EV of the extra bet going in =40*(-1)+60*x*1, where x is his payoff frequency. This gives us x=67% of the time he'd need to payoff.

Re: 3bet fold to a cap?
 

[ QUOTE ]
QT is definitely part of his range as well.

[/ QUOTE ]
do you like a river raise from that hand?? not sure how I feel about it.

[ QUOTE ]
Q9 could also be part of his range, and he'd definitely call.

[/ QUOTE ]

word

Re: 3bet fold to a cap?
 

3bet call a cap. he could easily have AQ or KQ.

Re: 3bet fold to a cap?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think calling is better than not getting to showdown

[/ QUOTE ]

why? what hands (if any) do you see him capping with that i beat? i mean against a laggy player or someone whose like a 60/15 he could cap worse two pairs, or god knows what else. so i should get to showdown. but against a 20/17, if he caps my 3bet, theres 0 chance that i'm ahead. but i think i'm ahead of enough of his possible holdings that i should 3bet.

stealthcow-

Re: 3bet fold to a cap?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think calling is better than not getting to showdown

[/ QUOTE ]

why? what hands (if any) do you see him capping with that i beat? i mean against a laggy player or someone whose like a 60/15 he could cap worse two pairs, or god knows what else. so i should get to showdown. but against a 20/17, if he caps my 3bet, theres 0 chance that i'm ahead. but i think i'm ahead of enough of his possible holdings that i should 3bet.

stealthcow-

[/ QUOTE ]

My thinking is this, though I have yet to make it to 5-10, so I'm interested to hear what you and others have to say.

Above, Redd asked if you expected him to call with a big Q. If it's true that he he'll fold a Q, or another 1 pair hand, to your 3 bet, and cap with everything else that beats you, I don't see the point in 3 betting. We'll (almost)never collect the extra bet when we're ahead, and it will cost us another bb when we're behind, and we don't get a showdown.

I really want to show this hand down, so I don't see the need to risk another bb here, when I don't have to. Am I missing a lot of value by playing it this way?

Re: 3bet fold to a cap?
 

[ QUOTE ]
3bet call a cap. he could easily have AQ or KQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I realllly doubt he has AQ or KQ. Call a flop c/r then cap the river with only TPTK or TP2K?

Re: 3bet fold to a cap?
 

"Above, Redd asked if you expected him to call with a big Q. If it's true that he he'll fold a Q, or another 1 pair hand, to your 3 bet, and cap with everything else that beats you, I don't see the point in 3 betting. We'll (almost)never collect the extra bet when we're ahead, and it will cost us another bb when we're behind, and we don't get a showdown."

how many hands are we behind?? how many hands are we ahead of? we only need like a 10-20% chance (ballpark but numbers can be run) that he'll call with those big queens in order to get value out of a raise here. we're not behind very many hands at all..

edit: i think 3bet/fold &gt; 3bet/call &gt; call

Re: 3bet fold to a cap?
 

[ QUOTE ]
we only need like a 10-20% chance

[/ QUOTE ]

You say 10-20%, Redd says 67%. That's a big difference. I am trying to learn spots to value bet more, but this spot doesn't feel right to me. I would hate to laydown top 2 here.

In light of that, I'd rather put one bet in here (call) than put 2 in to fold (with a slim chance for a call by a worse hand). Or worse yet, call a cap, with virtually no chance to win the showdown that I could have had 2 bb's ago...

So, imo, call &gt; bet-fold &gt; bet-call.

Re: 3bet fold to a cap?
 

not sure where i got the 10-20% but it's way off. Redd is pretty much on I think. if we're ahead of AQ(8)/KQ(8)/QT(8)/Q9(6) and behind KT(16) and AdKd/AdTd so we're good 30:18

Re: 3bet fold to a cap?
 

His river numbers would be nice. If he's a typical 20/17 2+2er, 3-betting has very little value here, for the reasons red stated. Lone Qs fold, a couple of unlikely 2 pairs call, and flushes and straights cap us.