5CD - Low boat.
 

Sorry, don't have HH. 2/4 at Paradise.
UTG limps. CO raises. Button folds. Hero 3-bets 222xx from the SB. BB folds. UTG caps. CO calls. Hero calls.
UTG is pat. CO is pat. Hero draws 88.
What's my line?

Re: 5CD - Low boat.
 

I think your best line here depends upon your opponenet's tendancies. If you think UTG is aggressive enough to bet here, or CO is aggressive enough to bet if checked to, then I think a check/raise is best. But if these guys are even slightly passive I'd bet and be willing to put in a reraise if the first raise comes from a non-rock.

Just my opinion...

Re: 5CD - Low boat.
 

Just bet, and raise to the cap.

Re: 5CD - Low boat.
 

Boo I hate that line! He drew 2 and two guys stood pat, he MUST go for a checkraise here if his opponents have any mass of brain in their noggins. Fair chance you still might get one of them to 3-bet you and you can cap, but yeah, checkraise that up in case they have straights and would just call your post-draw raise scared.

Re: 5CD - Low boat.
 

No, he has two stand pat players against him. There is very little risk that hes not getting paid here.

If you check, and the next player goes for a check raise with a flush, and the third player has a small straight and checks behind, you get nothing. Very plausible scenario.

If you bet one of these guys is going to raise you. And the third gets trapped.

Re: 5CD - Low boat.
 

Just curious, do we give any possibility to a full house which would beat twos-full or is that weak-tight thinking?

Re: 5CD - Low boat.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just curious, do we give any possibility to a full house which would beat twos-full or is that weak-tight thinking?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you need to be afraid of it, but you shouldn't discount it entirely. I probably wouldn't want to cap the betting after the draw in this hand (unless the other raiser was overaggressive), but the possibility of a bigger boat wouldn't prevent me from making it either 2 or 3 bets.

Just my opinion...

Some math
 

Someone should check my math on this one, but this should shed some light on the situation...

According to Super System, the chances of being dealt the following pat hands before the draw are:
A Full House: 693: 1 (.14%)
A Flush: 508: 1 (.20%)
A Straight 254: 1 (.39%)

Therefore, it follows that one opponent will have either a straight or a flush .59% of the time (.2%+.39%)

So, if you hold deuces full of eights, and your opponent must hold one of the three types of hands listed above, he'll hold a boat slightly less than 25% of the time (.14/.59). So you're a little better than 3:1 to have one player beat. In the real world, you're actually somewhat better than that, because A) your opponent may be false carding, and B) since you have a boat it will be harder for your opponent to also hold one because he can't make a boat using deuces and is unlikely to make one using eights.

Now here's where my math is a little shaky... against two opponents in which they both must hold either a boat, a flush, or a straight, I figure you'll have the best hand about 9/16 of the time. However, my math is based on estimates and is certainly underrepresenting your actual chances. In the real world, I put your chances more along the lines of about 11/16 or 11.5/16 (or about 70%) of having the best hand.

I came to this number by creating a matrix. The matrix assumes that each of your opponents will have a straight or a flush 3 times, and a boat once (representing the 3:1 number I arrived at above). Adding up all the possibilites, there are 16 outcomes, 7 of which give at least one of your opponents a full house. However, this method is flawed. As stated above, your chances are better than 3: 1 for each player. Also, with two opponents it becomes more likely that one of them is false carding. It's certainly feasible that the player to your left has a hand like trip sixes, or the player on the button has a hand like trip aces, and has decided to stand pat in hopes of showing down his hand for free.

All in all, I think this adds up to about a 70% chance you are best. It still doesn't prove whether it is better to bet out or go for a check/raise, but I think it does prove that you don't have to be too afraid of a bigger boat.

Re: Some math
 

[ QUOTE ]
B) since you have a boat it will be harder for your opponent to also hold one because he can't make a boat using deuces and is unlikely to make one using eights.



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I'm sure my thinking is flawed, but I'm not sure if this is accurate. Doesn't my having a boat mean that there are more cards of the same rank in the deck? For example, if I had 2222x, wouldn't my opponents chance of getting 4 of a kind actually go up (albeit very small) as I am 'removing' a rank from the deck?
So in this case I'm partially removing ranks, thus making a boat more likely??

Re: Some math
 

I'm not really sure... it's probably best to go ask in the probablity forum where people still remember how to do algebra. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]