river raise?
 

55/22.7/1.78 after 70 hands.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB caps</font>, Hero calls.

River: (13.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero ?

Re: river raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
river raise?

[/ QUOTE ]
Definitely. I'd probably cap too. If he happens to have AA, them's the breaks. I think AQ/AK/88 and probably even A8 are all consistent with his play.

Re: river raise?
 

Looks like you're ahead of AQx3 and 88x6, and behind AAx6 (I don't think many other hands get there, even from an aggressive opponent? I'm not sure if any of these need discounting?). So we're ahead 9/15 = 60% of the time. We're calling if 3-bet, so we need to be ahead 66% of the time to value-raise.

So I call it.

Re: river raise?
 

3 combos AA.

Re: river raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
and behind AAx6

[/ QUOTE ]
You're overcounting those, there's only 3.

Edit: Damn, I'm slow...

Re: river raise?
 

Do you expect a 22pfr to 3-bet an UTG raise with A8s here? Do you expect AK to cap the turn? These both seem close to me, but I'm not sure they do.

Re: river raise?
 

Yeah, I cap it up too. Like others said, it's going to be AQ/88 here much more often. This guy looks like he may be a LAG too so it may even be something worse

Re: river raise?
 

Right, we're ahead of 88x3 too. So we're ahead of that range exactly enough for a 0EV raise. If we can include a discounted AK or A8 then it'll push it into slight +EV.

Re: river raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do you expect a 22pfr to 3-bet an UTG raise with A8s here? Do you expect AK to cap the turn? These both seem close to me, but I'm not sure they do.

[/ QUOTE ]

This guy looks like he may be capable of either of these.
Keep in mind, we're 4handed.

Re: river raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do you expect a 22pfr to 3-bet an UTG raise with A8s here? Do you expect AK to cap the turn? These both seem close to me, but I'm not sure they do.

[/ QUOTE ]
LoaferGee already said it but we're 4-handed, so our UTG raise really looks like a steal from the CO. I think 3-betting A8 isn't unreasonable, especially if it's suited (I probably would then).

The turn cap looks a little spewy with AK but a steal situation can really bring out the inner LAGtard in some people.