call this massive river raise with nut flush?
 

Villain is 50/0/1 after 40 hands, do I give him credit for the straight flush?


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Button ($38.07)
Hero ($42.15)
BB ($3.50)
UTG ($0)
MP ($24.15)
CO ($24.75)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.10.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls $0.25, Hero (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($0.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($0.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $0.5</font>, Hero calls $0.50, BB folds.

River: ($1.75) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, Button calls $35.32 (All-In), Hero ?!!?!?.

Final Pot: $76.39

Re: call this massive river raise with nut flush?
 

ugh that is tough, I dunno, I would probably pay off the straight flush i guess? i dunno

Re: call this massive river raise with nut flush?
 

fold it

Re: call this massive river raise with nut flush?
 

That's the thing, there's one single card in the deck that beats me... but his betting tells me he has that card...

Re: call this massive river raise with nut flush?
 

With that action on the river, do you think he's trying to get you to fold the ace. I think he has it here like 90%+ of the time

Re: call this massive river raise with nut flush?
 

why you put him on the j?

Re: call this massive river raise with nut flush?
 

The highest flush he could have without the SF is the 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] With his low aggression he's not doing this with the 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] At 25NL I probably couldn't fold this but I'd say "Nice straight flush" before I call [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Based on his stats though I think he shows the SF more than 33% of the time.

Re: call this massive river raise with nut flush?
 

[ QUOTE ]
why you put him on the j?

[/ QUOTE ]

He is 0% PFR. Plus, his VPIP combined with his postflop aggression puts as as super-super passive. He has the J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] way more than 33% of the time.

Re: call this massive river raise with nut flush?
 

Yeah I'm pretty sure I'd just pay him off, it's such a rare case that it doesn't really matter what you do.

Re: call this massive river raise with nut flush?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I'm pretty sure I'd just pay him off, it's such a rare case that it doesn't really matter what you do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Severity of error multiplied by frequency of occurance. I'll pay off the SF with the NF on an unpaired board every time at PP 25NL.

HOWEVER, I think this is a good hand for analysis because I really really don't think this villain is doing this without the straight flush.