AQ
 

Assume your typical Party Poker small stakes game. One typical player limps in and you raise A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] behind him. There are some cold callers but I won't specify how many. Maybe some of the blinds come along too.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
L1 donks, you raise, there is a cold caller behind, everyone else drops out and L1 calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
L1 donks again

What's your plan? Your decision is affected by the size of the pot (which is controlled by the number of preflop cold callers) so your plan should be centred around that. The pot is minimum 7.75 BB minus rake.

Re: AQ
 

You have to raise here, stats would help greatly however.

Re: AQ
 

I think you're ahead often enough to protect your hand, but not often enough to call a 3-bet.

Scott

Re: AQ
 

I'm on to you! You're trying to trick us into doing math.

-DeathDonkey

Re: AQ
 

I think the turn donk represents significant weakness. If he had T9, he would have been inclined to check-raise. His donk makes me think his range is going to be heavily weighted towards hands like QT/JT/KQ/KJ. The coldcaller isn't beating us unless he is holding T9, and he'll let us know by three-betting the turn with that hand. The rest of his range is comprised of hands that are behind us but that have outs, and we'd do well to make him face two bets cold.

So my plan is to raise. If the cold-caller three-bets, I'm folding. If L1 three-bets...then we have problems...and it's close between folding and calling down, but I think I fold.

Even though getting three-bet is ugly, the pot is big enough and our hand vulnerable enough that it has to be right to raise.

Will

Re: AQ
 

ok, well im definately raising

the size of the pot dosent really come into play for that descison unless were just trying to charge a gutshot or some other weak draw or something, a hand like KT will pretty much always be correct to call, so i think the situation where we have to consider the pot is what we plan to do if we get 3-bet.

well what hands is this villain 3-betting?

a sraight, which we are drawing dead against, a set which we are drawing dead against, 2 pair which we have anywhere from 3 to 8 outs against, or something that we beat such as KQ or maybe even a recklessly played KT

im not really sure how to weight these different holdings as a typical small stakes party donkey will be limping in with a lot of hands and playing them strangely at times, but we can at least count the combos of his likely holdings and try to come up with an answer from that

now your typical 2/4 player is probably not capable of playing KT like this, so ill leave that out, hes also probably not playing a hand like 82, and hed most likely raise preflop with QQ or JJ, so lets say his possible holdings for 3-betting are QJ, Q8, J8, 22, 88, and 9T, thers also the unlikely possiblity of a pure bluff or KQ, but i think its safe to assume that if we get 3-bet, we are behind.

so how many limpers did we need to start with for it to be correct to call a 3-bet?

well there are 9 combos of QJ and 9 combos of Q8, both of which, we have 3 outs against

there are 9 combos of J8 which we have 8 outs against

there are 3 combos of 22, 3 combos of 88, and 16 combos of 9T which we are drawing dead against.

so we are drawing dead against 22 hands, drawing to 3 outs against 18 hands and drawing to 8 outs against 9 hands

now i have no idea if im doing this right, but 3X18=54 +8X9=72 +22X0=0 =126/33= 3.8 outs on average that we are drawing to

in order for it to be profitable to see a river if we get 3-bet the pot needs to be offering us ~11 to 1

at the minimum pot size of 7.75 BB after we get 3-bet we are getting 11.75 to 1 to call, so we are pretty much always going to want to see the river(also i would probably pay off a river bet getting these odds too) so maybe i went the wrong way with this

well ok, lets see what draws would be correct to cold/call your raise depending on how many people were in the pot to start with, KT, with 8 outs, he needs to be getting 4.75 to one from the pot, after you raise, you are offering the cold/caller 9.75 to 2 or 4.875 to 1, so with KT he will always be correct to draw

how about a gutshot, such as T7, with 4 outs, he needs 10.5 to 1, so at the minimum pot size for this problem, he would be incorrect to draw, each player we add in the begining will add 1 BB to the pot(except for the blinds which will be .75 and .5 BBs) so how many cold/callers do we need to start with for his call to be correct(ignoring implied odds and the possiblity of a 3-bet)

well he needs to be getting 21 to 2 from your raise, so right now theres 9.75 BB in the pot and it would be impossible to get it up to 21 by adding more callers preflop, so he will always be wrong to call

ok, im pretty much just doing this as i go along and dont know if im doing it all right or anything, but i think this is a raise, and i cant really figure out how the size of the pot will affect any of your options so whatever

Re: AQ
 

are we assuming no read on L1?

Re: AQ
 

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are we assuming no read on L1?

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Assume your typical Party Poker small stakes game. One typical player limps

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Re: AQ
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
are we assuming no read on L1?

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[ QUOTE ]
Assume your typical Party Poker small stakes game. One typical player limps

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its late and i suck at reading....
thats my story and i'm sticking to it.

Re: AQ
 

[ QUOTE ]
ok, well im definately raising

the size of the pot dosent really come into play for that descison unless were just trying to charge a gutshot or some other weak draw or something, a hand like KT will pretty much always be correct to call, so i think the situation where we have to consider the pot is what we plan to do if we get 3-bet.

well what hands is this villain 3-betting?

a sraight, which we are drawing dead against, a set which we are drawing dead against, 2 pair which we have anywhere from 3 to 8 outs against, or something that we beat such as KQ or maybe even a recklessly played KT

im not really sure how to weight these different holdings as a typical small stakes party donkey will be limping in with a lot of hands and playing them strangely at times, but we can at least count the combos of his likely holdings and try to come up with an answer from that

now your typical 2/4 player is probably not capable of playing KT like this, so ill leave that out, hes also probably not playing a hand like 82, and hed most likely raise preflop with QQ or JJ, so lets say his possible holdings for 3-betting are QJ, Q8, J8, 22, 88, and 9T, thers also the unlikely possiblity of a pure bluff or KQ, but i think its safe to assume that if we get 3-bet, we are behind.

so how many limpers did we need to start with for it to be correct to call a 3-bet?

well there are 9 combos of QJ and 9 combos of Q8, both of which, we have 3 outs against

there are 9 combos of J8 which we have 8 outs against

there are 3 combos of 22, 3 combos of 88, and 16 combos of 9T which we are drawing dead against.

so we are drawing dead against 22 hands, drawing to 3 outs against 18 hands and drawing to 8 outs against 9 hands

now i have no idea if im doing this right, but 3X18=54 +8X9=72 +22X0=0 =126/33= 3.8 outs on average that we are drawing to

in order for it to be profitable to see a river if we get 3-bet the pot needs to be offering us ~11 to 1

at the minimum pot size of 7.75 BB after we get 3-bet we are getting 11.75 to 1 to call, so we are pretty much always going to want to see the river(also i would probably pay off a river bet getting these odds too) so maybe i went the wrong way with this

well ok, lets see what draws would be correct to cold/call your raise depending on how many people were in the pot to start with, KT, with 8 outs, he needs to be getting 4.75 to one from the pot, after you raise, you are offering the cold/caller 9.75 to 2 or 4.875 to 1, so with KT he will always be correct to draw

how about a gutshot, such as T7, with 4 outs, he needs 10.5 to 1, so at the minimum pot size for this problem, he would be incorrect to draw, each player we add in the begining will add 1 BB to the pot(except for the blinds which will be .75 and .5 BBs) so how many cold/callers do we need to start with for his call to be correct(ignoring implied odds and the possiblity of a 3-bet)

well he needs to be getting 21 to 2 from your raise, so right now theres 9.75 BB in the pot and it would be impossible to get it up to 21 by adding more callers preflop, so he will always be wrong to call

ok, im pretty much just doing this as i go along and dont know if im doing it all right or anything, but i think this is a raise, and i cant really figure out how the size of the pot will affect any of your options so whatever

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Now if I could just figure out how to run calculations like this before my hand is folded.... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]