Obvious call with the 2nd nuts?
 

Party .5/1

BB is a conservative ABC player.

Hero is in the SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

PREFLOP: 2 folds , MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 4 folds , Hero completes, BB checks.

FLOP: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players, 4 SBs)
<font color="red"> Hero bets </font> , <font color="red"> BB raises </font> , MP1 calls, MP2 folds.

TURN: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players, 4.5 BBs)
Hero checks, <font color="red"> BB bets </font> , MP1 calls, <font color="red"> Hero raises </font> , BB calls, MP1 calls.

RIVER: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players, 10.5 BBs)
<font color="red"> Hero bets, BB raises </font> , MP1 folds, Hero...

Re: Obvious call with the 2nd nuts?
 

Based on the play of the hand I think there's a good chance he's playing A-little, I'd be concerned about the Ad when that 4th diamond hits on the river. I would slow down and c/c.

Re: Obvious call with the 2nd nuts?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Based on the play of the hand I think there's a good chance he's playing A-little, I'd be concerned about the Ad when that 4th diamond hits on the river. I would slow down and c/c.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he's going to bet many hands that I beat, but he will probably call with them.

The problem, which I ran into, is that it is extremely difficult to go bet/fold on this river. So when I'm behind I lose 2, and when I'm ahead I gain 1 or zero by betting.

Re: Obvious call with the 2nd nuts?
 

not bet/calling this river will give you cancer. It's science.

Re: Obvious call with the 2nd nuts?
 

[ QUOTE ]
not bet/calling this river will give you cancer. It's science.

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Listen to the man.

Re: Obvious call with the 2nd nuts?
 

Looks like a fold to me [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Obvious call with the 2nd nuts?
 

he's playing like he has the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], but yes we have to call. I might be check/calling. I would probably take some time on the decision. We are not folding, no way.

Also, it's not the second nuts. There is a straight flush possibility, but I suspect he'd be more aggro on the turn with a made flush.

Re: Obvious call with the 2nd nuts?
 

calling is probably -EV. AQ is a preflop raise for even many "conservative" players, so most likely he has the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. it is very doubtful he raises the river with the Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] anyway, and there's no way he's raising the T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and he can't have the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

yeah i'm gonna say this is a -EV call but i pay the man.

Re: Obvious call with the 2nd nuts?
 

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Looks like a fold to me [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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I think he's over-excited about a Q 1/13 here. Didn't sound like read was too thorough.

Re: Obvious call with the 2nd nuts?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he's going to bet many hands that I beat, but he will probably call with them.

The problem, which I ran into, is that it is extremely difficult to go bet/fold on this river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not being able to bet/fold is one of my leaks. But on this river, I think that the probability that he has the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is pretty high. Unless you have a read that this guy is a maniac or a dufus, I think you can find a fold after his raise. Do you really think he's raising with something like the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? I'd probably check/call this river.