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-   -   Do I need to pay this off?? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=407575)

jba 12-30-2005 02:43 AM

Do I need to pay this off??
 
villain is 40/13/1.3. no read that would indicate that he does or does not like to slowplay.

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (4 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls.

River: (6 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>


May I fold, please?

************************************************** ***********************

SSSH readers: I'm really sorry I had to lock such an interesting hand thread because of flaming. I've already conveyed my feelings on this thread to some of you by PM. There are several others of you that I greatly respect who in my opinion need to chill a little. It takes two to fight and next time I would appreciate it if you would consider whether the argument is really worth it.

To make up in some small way to OP for killing his hand I will offer my personal thoughts.

1. The PFR is fine but folding is also OK versus a 40/13.

2. I would never bet this flop.

3. Easy river bet. I might call the river but it's close. I always get suspicious when the river card has ruined several hands (A6/A5/65).

Happy New Year guys.
StellarWind


Monty Cantsin 12-30-2005 02:48 AM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
It's ok with me.

/mc

morberg 12-30-2005 09:53 AM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
I would call, but that's probably a leak of mine.

car ramrod 12-30-2005 12:41 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
I would fold.

jba 12-30-2005 03:56 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
thanks guys, I did in fact fold.

edit to add: afterwords it just seemed like such a great shot for someone to take a shot at me. however upon further thought I doubt many people think I can fold TP here.

TomBrooks 12-30-2005 06:52 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
RIVER: I would fold.

PS: PREFLOP: I also fold A9o unless I'm first in from MP on which I raise.

mongoose51 12-30-2005 07:18 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
I think this is a good fold, unless you have some read, or some reason to believe , that he would be taking a shot at you here. The way the hand is played it certainly looks like you have an A , so he probably expects you to call his chk raise.

On the flop I am not thrilled about A9 with a limper in front of me, particularly if the blinds are loose and will probably call.

Monty Cantsin 12-30-2005 07:19 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
I frequently raise A9 after one limper. I would say more often than not.

/mc

Entity 12-30-2005 08:10 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
I frequently raise A9 after one limper. I would say more often than not.

/mc

[/ QUOTE ]

If by frequently you mean almost always, I would agree.

I like the river fold.

Rob

Womble 12-30-2005 08:22 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
Why are we folding this river? I am confused here? His agression isnt abnormally low so he could have an ace. Is the 9 kicker the problem here? I need same reasoning since this may be a leak of mine.

Monty Cantsin 12-30-2005 09:08 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]

If by frequently you mean almost always, I would agree.


[/ QUOTE ]

In that case, that's exactly what I meant.

/mc

Monty Cantsin 12-30-2005 10:09 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
Why are we folding this river?

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, we aren't necessarily folding here. jba wanted to know if he could fold, which means "given what we know is a call required here?"

What would make this call obligatory is if we expect to be winning here substantially more than 1 times out of 10.

I happen to think we are winning here a bit less than 1 times out of 10. But somewhere around 1 in 10 seems reasonable. So it doesn't really matter if we call or fold, and we're free to do either one based on meta-stuff or whatever sick whim our brain cooks up for us (btw whims can be excellent pattern mappers so it could be jba's desire to fold is indicative of a deeper read on this player that his conscious mind was not aware of).

The thing that makes his raise a little more believable to me here is the pre-flop raise, flop check, turn bet, which diagrams A-big very strongly. I don't expect unknowns to expect unknowns to fold an Ace.

Btw, I would be much more likely to call here with AQ or AK.

/mc

jba 12-31-2005 12:02 AM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
"(btw whims can be excellent pattern mappers so it could be jba's desire to fold is indicative of a deeper read on this player that his conscious mind was not aware of). "

in my semidrunken state i'm taking that as a compliemant

Monty Cantsin 12-31-2005 02:24 AM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
Intended.

/mc

banditdad 12-31-2005 04:02 AM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
And you didn't bet out on the flop because? You needed to narrow the field and gain info on the flop. Bet it.

If the villian has any piece of the board he's not folding the river. Are you probably beat, yes. Are you guaranteed beat? No. Villian could have Ax smaller than you or ? I really think a better line is to check call the river, especially against an unknown.

Monty Cantsin 12-31-2005 04:43 AM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
And you didn't bet out on the flop because? You needed to narrow the field and gain info on the flop. Bet it.

[/ QUOTE ]

So your advice is, having raised, to auto-bet every single flop regardless of the cards? If not, can you give me an example of a flop that's worse for continuation betting?

Checking this flop is a smart use of position.


[ QUOTE ]
If the villian has any piece of the board he's not folding the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true it's a good reason to value bet the river.


[ QUOTE ]
Are you probably beat, yes. Are you guaranteed beat? No.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need a lot more markings on that scale.


[ QUOTE ]
Villian could have Ax smaller than you or ?

[/ QUOTE ]

There are four Ax smaller than you that aren't two pair, and two of those make top pair plus OESDs that are much more likely to raise the turn than the river. This raise is quite simply a better hand or a bluff.


[ QUOTE ]
I really think a better line is to check call the river, especially against an unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think check/calling this river is terrible, but I think bet/folding is better.

Check/calling makes its money from busted draws that bluff and brave pairs.

Bet/folding makes its money from scared pairs. At these stakes, I think there are more pairs that happily take a free showdown then there are pairs that make a tough value bet on a scary board or missed draws that bluff.

/mc

LoaferGee12 12-31-2005 06:05 AM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
And you didn't bet out on the flop because? You needed to narrow the field and gain info on the flop. Bet it.


[/ QUOTE ]

You really couldn't pick a worse flop to auto-bet, given the amount of opponents.

LoaferGee12 12-31-2005 06:07 AM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
I really think a better line is to check call the river, especially against an unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]

He acts 2nd.

Chairman Wood 12-31-2005 06:30 AM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
May I fold, please?

[/ QUOTE ] I give you my permission as long as you don't have a read that says he likes to make moves more ofthen than he should. I think he gives you credit for that A.

MicroBob 12-31-2005 07:57 AM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really think a better line is to check call the river, especially against an unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]

He acts 2nd.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah. I had to go back and look at this to try to figure out what you guys are talking about.

If hero checks the river the hand is over (and checking this river would be terrible). Check/call is not an option.

krishanleong 12-31-2005 10:45 AM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
I'm pretty sure I call that. I can't give great reasons but it has something to do with a river board pairing card being a good bluff card, most people waking up on the turn with a better hand, busted flush/straight draws being out there.

I think you are easily good 1-8 here.

Krishan

12-31-2005 01:24 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
I am really surprised that so many people are advocating a fold here. I would definately call. Villain's stats have him relatively aggressive, and there is no good reason for him to check top pair on the flop, so we can pretty much discount the seven. A x giving him two pair is possible, but again I think he may have bet the flop here. A badly played flopped flush looks the most likely hand that beats you. But I still think the times when he tries to represent the scare card you are pretty certain that he hasn't got give you easily enough to call.

banditdad 12-31-2005 01:29 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
That's right. So just check it down. The board sucks. A better hand than yours will raise, a worse hand will fold to the bet. If he raises you are probably going to call and be out 2 bets. I know the CW on 2+2 is always to bet, bet, bet, but here you're just giving it away.

banditdad 12-31-2005 01:32 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
There's a flush draw, straight draw, straight flush draw, and trips or boat on the board and you think a river check is terrible?

banditdad 12-31-2005 01:36 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
Actually you couldn't pick a better flop to auto bet given the board and opponents. Why on earth are you giving a free card to 3 other players with a board like that? Do you want someone to hit their outs? You need information and you need to narrow the field. One sb does that for you.

I haven't been on 2+2 in a while and I'm actually taken aback at the responses.

banditdad 12-31-2005 01:40 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And you didn't bet out on the flop because? You needed to narrow the field and gain info on the flop. Bet it.

[/ QUOTE ]

So your advice is, having raised, to auto-bet every single flop regardless of the cards? If not, can you give me an example of a flop that's worse for continuation betting?

Checking this flop is a smart use of position.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry but I really think checking this flop is a major mistake. Shows weakness, allows the others to catch up, just not a good play.

Monty Cantsin 12-31-2005 02:31 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]

Yeah. I had to go back and look at this to try to figure out what you guys are talking about.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, being impossible would have been the simplest argument against check/calling. I was confused.

/mc

Monty Cantsin 12-31-2005 02:34 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
Actually you couldn't pick a better flop to auto bet given the board and opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you give us an example of a flop where you would check behind, or sometimes check behind?

/mc

jt1 12-31-2005 02:38 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
I'd be inclined to fold and would definitely do so if you have more than 200 hands on this guy with those stats.

jt1 12-31-2005 02:48 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
Actually you couldn't pick a better flop to auto bet given the board and opponents. Why on earth are you giving a free card to 3 other players with a board like that? Do you want someone to hit their outs? You need information and you need to narrow the field. One sb does that for you.


[/ QUOTE ]

You have enough info already. You need to improve to win. If you bet, chances are you'll get raised and have to fold. Might as well save your sb.

Another poster mentioned that he couldn't see the river raiser having a 7 there very often. I disagree. He could have had a 7 and was either looking to CR the flop or peel due to all the draws and re-evaluate on the turn. On the turn, he was probably rightfully scared of the Ace and he wisely went for the cr after river trips.

banditdad 12-31-2005 03:19 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Actually you couldn't pick a better flop to auto bet given the board and opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you give us an example of a flop where you would check behind, or sometimes check behind?

/mc

[/ QUOTE ]

KKx, QQx, KQx, TJJ, etc.. Not many. Normally I'm making a continuation bet. As would most players in a shorthanded small stakes game. If you don't understand this concept I suggest you read any one of the myriad poker books &amp; articles that are available to you.

With this board if someone hit the flush or staright and is looking to c/r I want to know it with one sb. I'm sorry but I don't give free cards to 3 other players on the flop with a board like this one. And neither should you.

12-31-2005 03:31 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
"I'm sorry but I don't give free cards to 3 other players on the flop with a board like this one. And neither should you."

You're not giving a free card, you're taking one. The continuation bet takes this pot down on the flop just about never. You more than likely do not have the best hand, equity-wise, at the moment. You need to improve to win. It is checked to you. Why on earth would betting be superior to taking the free card here?

jt1 12-31-2005 03:36 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
You're not giving a free card, you're taking one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Entity 12-31-2005 03:40 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And you didn't bet out on the flop because? You needed to narrow the field and gain info on the flop. Bet it.

[/ QUOTE ]

So your advice is, having raised, to auto-bet every single flop regardless of the cards? If not, can you give me an example of a flop that's worse for continuation betting?

Checking this flop is a smart use of position.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry but I really think checking this flop is a major mistake. Shows weakness, allows the others to catch up, just not a good play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Checking this flop is 100% correct.

Monty Cantsin 12-31-2005 04:08 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Can you give us an example of a flop where you would check behind, or sometimes check behind?

[/ QUOTE ]

KKx, QQx, KQx, TJJ, etc..

[/ QUOTE ]

I would be more inclined to bet these, especially the first two.

[ QUOTE ]

Normally I'm making a continuation bet. As would most players in a shorthanded small stakes game. If you don't understand this concept I suggest you read any one of the myriad poker books &amp; articles that are available to you.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm glad you've figured out how to continuation bet, welcome to the ranks of the novice poker player.

So far in this thread you've: misread the action, given out sketchy advice, and shown no indication of being able to think beyond the most rudimentary, beginner-level, fortune-cookie rules of thumb (Charge the draws! Define your hand!) So I find your attempt to condescend bizarre. Nice use of "myriad" though, Gandalf.

[ QUOTE ]
With this board if someone hit the flush or staright and is looking to c/r I want to know it with one sb.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? How often do you think a c/r here is a made flush or straight? How often do you think you're currently ahead? How often do you think you'll be ahead by the river? How often are you drawing live? Dead? How often is a bet going to fold a hand that you would like to fold?

I don't think the answers to these questions are obvious, but I'm pretty sure they are the right questions to ask in this situation. Unlike you, I think this situation is fairly complex and interesting, but I'm not a continuation bet expert like yourself.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry but I don't give free cards to 3 other players on the flop with a board like this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, you would be more inclined to check behind if this was heads up? Are you sure you aren't just trolling me now?

/mc

waffle 12-31-2005 04:24 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
Very easy flop check. This is a no-brainer. If I had to fabricate a situation where it was clearly correct to check on the flop after raising PF, it would look almost exactly like this hand.

[ QUOTE ]

If you don't understand this concept I suggest you read any one of the myriad poker books &amp; articles that are available to you.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, dude. Monty's location shows that he's done more digging around in the archives (an excellent source of poker information) than you ever have. And he's still trying to help you after you kick dirt in his face. I'd be appreciative.

Your arguments against checking:

"Showing weakness" - lol. [censored], I fold 80% of my hands preflop, that's pretty weak isn't it?
"Allowing the others to catch up" - Yeah, we're definitely a huge favorite to win this pot. ...

banditdad 12-31-2005 05:26 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
"I'm sorry but I don't give free cards to 3 other players on the flop with a board like this one. And neither should you."

You're not giving a free card, you're taking one. The continuation bet takes this pot down on the flop just about never. You more than likely do not have the best hand, equity-wise, at the moment. You need to improve to win. It is checked to you. Why on earth would betting be superior to taking the free card here?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are not trying to take the pot down. While it is not the exact scenario I would refer you to part 5 of SSHE. I could probably find the similar passage in ITH but I don't feel like looking.


If you really believe that by checking on the flop you are taking, not giving a free card you need to rethink your game. I really don't care how many 2+2ers post otherwise: This is a weak play guaranteed to allow someone to catch up.
I am only to happy to take the free card when I am on the draw and the raiser checks on the button. If I hit my out I am going to play it just like the villian here did. Call the turn and raise the river and you are toast. However, if you had bet out on the flop there is a good chance that, almost a certainty, that one player will fold and a good chance that 2 will fold. If I am on a gutshot or need one more club I may fold depending on the odds, And if I have paired my 4,5,6, (which I wouldn't have played to begin with but that's a different subject), I would consider a fold here and probably folded to the turn bet with an A on board if I have a weak pair with no redraw.

Yor are the raiser. You are not taking a free card by checking, you are giving free cards to 3 other players. You are allowing them to catch up.

BTW, just as an aside. The A9 should probably not have been played to begin with, but that's a different discussion.

Could all of you who would check the flop here please PM the sites you play at? I'd like to join your games.

banditdad 12-31-2005 05:28 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And you didn't bet out on the flop because? You needed to narrow the field and gain info on the flop. Bet it.

[/ QUOTE ]

So your advice is, having raised, to auto-bet every single flop regardless of the cards? If not, can you give me an example of a flop that's worse for continuation betting?

Checking this flop is a smart use of position.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry but I really think checking this flop is a major mistake. Shows weakness, allows the others to catch up, just not a good play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Checking this flop is 100% correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are wrong. It is 100% incorrect and a pretty good reasonn why I regularly take your money.

TheMetetron 12-31-2005 05:29 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure I call that. I can't give great reasons but it has something to do with a river board pairing card being a good bluff card, most people waking up on the turn with a better hand, busted flush/straight draws being out there.

I think you are easily good 1-8 here.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Was waiting for someone to post my feelings.

It's hard to articulate, but there is something about this whole thing that makes me want to call.

I agree, 1-8 times, at least, this pot is yours. Call.

TheMetetron 12-31-2005 05:32 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
banditdad,

You don't take my money. Your flop bet would be horrible. Stop trolling these boards.

piss off,

Metetron


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