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-   -   Do I need to pay this off?? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=407575)

Monty Cantsin 12-30-2005 09:08 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]

If by frequently you mean almost always, I would agree.


[/ QUOTE ]

In that case, that's exactly what I meant.

/mc

Monty Cantsin 12-30-2005 10:09 PM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
Why are we folding this river?

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, we aren't necessarily folding here. jba wanted to know if he could fold, which means "given what we know is a call required here?"

What would make this call obligatory is if we expect to be winning here substantially more than 1 times out of 10.

I happen to think we are winning here a bit less than 1 times out of 10. But somewhere around 1 in 10 seems reasonable. So it doesn't really matter if we call or fold, and we're free to do either one based on meta-stuff or whatever sick whim our brain cooks up for us (btw whims can be excellent pattern mappers so it could be jba's desire to fold is indicative of a deeper read on this player that his conscious mind was not aware of).

The thing that makes his raise a little more believable to me here is the pre-flop raise, flop check, turn bet, which diagrams A-big very strongly. I don't expect unknowns to expect unknowns to fold an Ace.

Btw, I would be much more likely to call here with AQ or AK.

/mc

jba 12-31-2005 12:02 AM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
"(btw whims can be excellent pattern mappers so it could be jba's desire to fold is indicative of a deeper read on this player that his conscious mind was not aware of). "

in my semidrunken state i'm taking that as a compliemant

Monty Cantsin 12-31-2005 02:24 AM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
Intended.

/mc

banditdad 12-31-2005 04:02 AM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
And you didn't bet out on the flop because? You needed to narrow the field and gain info on the flop. Bet it.

If the villian has any piece of the board he's not folding the river. Are you probably beat, yes. Are you guaranteed beat? No. Villian could have Ax smaller than you or ? I really think a better line is to check call the river, especially against an unknown.

Monty Cantsin 12-31-2005 04:43 AM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
And you didn't bet out on the flop because? You needed to narrow the field and gain info on the flop. Bet it.

[/ QUOTE ]

So your advice is, having raised, to auto-bet every single flop regardless of the cards? If not, can you give me an example of a flop that's worse for continuation betting?

Checking this flop is a smart use of position.


[ QUOTE ]
If the villian has any piece of the board he's not folding the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true it's a good reason to value bet the river.


[ QUOTE ]
Are you probably beat, yes. Are you guaranteed beat? No.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need a lot more markings on that scale.


[ QUOTE ]
Villian could have Ax smaller than you or ?

[/ QUOTE ]

There are four Ax smaller than you that aren't two pair, and two of those make top pair plus OESDs that are much more likely to raise the turn than the river. This raise is quite simply a better hand or a bluff.


[ QUOTE ]
I really think a better line is to check call the river, especially against an unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think check/calling this river is terrible, but I think bet/folding is better.

Check/calling makes its money from busted draws that bluff and brave pairs.

Bet/folding makes its money from scared pairs. At these stakes, I think there are more pairs that happily take a free showdown then there are pairs that make a tough value bet on a scary board or missed draws that bluff.

/mc

LoaferGee12 12-31-2005 06:05 AM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
And you didn't bet out on the flop because? You needed to narrow the field and gain info on the flop. Bet it.


[/ QUOTE ]

You really couldn't pick a worse flop to auto-bet, given the amount of opponents.

LoaferGee12 12-31-2005 06:07 AM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
I really think a better line is to check call the river, especially against an unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]

He acts 2nd.

Chairman Wood 12-31-2005 06:30 AM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
May I fold, please?

[/ QUOTE ] I give you my permission as long as you don't have a read that says he likes to make moves more ofthen than he should. I think he gives you credit for that A.

MicroBob 12-31-2005 07:57 AM

Re: Do I need to pay this off??
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really think a better line is to check call the river, especially against an unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]

He acts 2nd.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah. I had to go back and look at this to try to figure out what you guys are talking about.

If hero checks the river the hand is over (and checking this river would be terrible). Check/call is not an option.


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