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-   -   God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=396846)

Exsubmariner 12-12-2005 02:00 PM

God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
I am writing here prompted by two things. The first of which were my obviously scandelous questions about the grim meat hook realities of internet tournament poker, especially large fields. And secondly because the 1-Table Tournaments forum addresses these questions in their FAQ and this forum does not.

We learn in the SNG FAQ's that the best you can expect to do on the long haul is about 40% ITM and a return of 15%-20% depending on if you have 9 or 10 players.

So let's imagine that you are God's gift to large field internet tournaments.

-What can you expect to be your ITM%?
-What can you expect to be your ROI?
-What percentage of time would you expect to make the final table?
-What percentage of time would you expect to win?

I have done some research on this in the past and the best I can come up with is that in moderately sized Internet tournaments the ITM of a good poker player is expected to be in the 5% range. I cannot remember exactly about the ROI%.

However, to my knowledge, and it could just be because I am a noob in these parts, there is no real math out there about fields of 3000-7000 players.

This would also be handy to know if you wanted to ever say, one day, play the WSOP. It's true that Raymer is a good player. He has proven that on the poker circuit, IMO and that he deserved to win his title and get a high placing the next year. But even being such a superb player, is it possible that he was just exceptionally lucky as well in the face of such hordes?

This should be on the minds of a lot of posters out there. I think it needs to be discussed by the finest 2+2 can offer. There are who knows how many serious poker players out there willing to plunk down $215 every week in the Stars 500K guarantee and while this is not a lot of money nor is it a significant portion of any serious players roll, it does add up. Imagine 100 weeks of never making it ITM. Thats $21,500. Imagine 300 weeks.

That's enough for a down payment on a pretty nice house in some parts of the country. It's significant. I'm not trying to encourage or discourage anyone in any way here. I just want a discussion about what we really are getting ourselves into when we enter one of these type events.

Discuss?

Jurollo 12-12-2005 02:05 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
The reason you see this sort of info readily available in the SNG forum and not here is purely logistics. You are asking questions about MTTs that by tournament play's very nature make them unanswerable long term. MTTs are a quirky little thing because in a lifetime, especially before the internet, players would maybe win lots of money but still not have significant mathematical data to prove that they are a long term winner. Even with the internet I would venture to guess that very few posters here can make such assertions about the 'long term' and have actual substantiated mathematical proof. The reason SNGs are different is because a player can play 24 in one hour and over the course of a few months collect enough data to be fairly close to a long term ROI. This is simply a disclaimer to you that you likely won't find what you are looking for here.
~Justin

reecelights 12-12-2005 02:12 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
There can be no "expectation" because styles and skills of different players vary so greatly.

A player could have a 5% ITM and 2000% ROI or could be like me until last week and have a 23.4% ITM and a -6% ROI.

Multis are not as formulaic and have far more variables than do SNGs.

A_PLUS 12-12-2005 02:14 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
[ QUOTE ]
moderately sized Internet tournaments the ITM of a good poker player is expected to be in the 5% range

[/ QUOTE ]

Typical tournaments pay out to 10% of the field.

These number are really pretty useless anyway. By the time you have played enough tournaments to be able to look at your numbers with any reasonable sense of confidence, you will be well beyond the point where general guidelines are useful anyway.

schwza 12-12-2005 02:20 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
[ QUOTE ]
By the time you have played enough tournaments to be able to look at your numbers with any reasonable sense of confidence, you will be well beyond the point where general guidelines are useful anyway.


[/ QUOTE ]

i don't know... i'd be curious whether a great player is absolutely slaughtering me in terms of results or if s/he just thumps me solidly.

12-12-2005 02:24 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
Just play each hand perfectly or learn from it when you don't. You will benefit far more by working on your game then worrying about ROI and ITM for MTTs.

schwza 12-12-2005 02:26 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
[ QUOTE ]
Just play each hand perfectly or learn from it when you don't. You will benefit far more by working on your game then worrying about ROI and ITM for MTTs.

[/ QUOTE ]

i hate the quick reply.

12-12-2005 02:32 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
I think in Tournament Poker for advanced players by Sklansky, he says that a tournament pro could have up to a 5X (500% ROI) edge on the competition (maybe I'm not remembering correctly though). I think this is likely true in live play with generous blind structures. I've played in a few live tourneys and people either suck or have no idea how to adjust to tournaments as most of the better/tight players are way too tight.

In online tourneys I think that your edge is likely decrease due to the fact that overall the blinds escalate a little more quickly, and the play is more aggressive, and overall the play is a little better. But I would guess that a 2+2'er should still have at least a 1.5-2X edge over the competition (50-100% ROI). That's just kind of ballpark figure and could easily be more or less. But I have not played a ton of the bigger buyin events so your edge might not be quite as good there. I think the rest of your questions could easily be answered if you knew what kind of edge you have, but I think that you're never going to play enough tourneys to know what your edge truly is.

12-12-2005 02:36 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
What do you want with these questions? "Oh, to be considered a successful MTT player, the minimum ROI% is 10%." You need to (IMO) find out how much ROI you WANT to make, and go for it.

NOTHING in poker is absolute. I'm sure you know this. If you're trying to guage how good you are with other players' returns, you're going to either set your standards too high or too low. Find out what you want to achieve, and work until you do. Good luck.

yvesaint 12-12-2005 02:42 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
God speaking, your ITM should be 15.423% and your ROI should be 154.365%. You should make the final table of a 3000-7000 field 4.259% of the time and you should win .854% of the time.

Thank me,

God.

SossMan 12-12-2005 02:46 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
[ QUOTE ]
God speaking, your ITM should be 15.423% and your ROI should be 154.365%. You should make the final table of a 3000-7000 field 4.259% of the time and you should win .854% of the time.

Thank me,

God.

[/ QUOTE ]

give or take .0001% or so.

SossMan 12-12-2005 02:46 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
God speaking, your ITM should be 15.423% and your ROI should be 154.365%. You should make the final table of a 3000-7000 field 4.259% of the time and you should win .854% of the time.

Thank me,

God.

[/ QUOTE ]

give or take .0001% or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

repeating, of course.

yvesaint 12-12-2005 02:47 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
God speaking, your ITM should be 15.423% and your ROI should be 154.365%. You should make the final table of a 3000-7000 field 4.259% of the time and you should win .854% of the time.

Thank me,

God.

[/ QUOTE ]

give or take .0001% or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

repeating, of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

God's margin of error: infinite and/or none at all. Oh my me.

Exsubmariner 12-12-2005 03:11 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
So nobody knows and those who might won't, nor should they, share.

Brilliant.

X

12-12-2005 03:20 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
[ QUOTE ]
So nobody knows and those who might won't, nor should they, share.

Brilliant.

X

[/ QUOTE ]

There are a bunch of problems with answering this question. First, MTTs vary greatly in size and structure. Second, MTTs have huge variance, so you need a ridiculously large sample size of MTTs to get reliable numbers. Third, combine problems one and two, and you see that you need a ridiculously large sample size of similarly structured and sized MTTs, which is really hard to come by.

Really rough numbers (i.e., within maybe a factor of 4) are 100% ROI and 15% ITM.

FT% and win% are totally bogus statistics because FTing a 9000 person MTT 1/10 times'd be amazing, while FTing a 50 person MTT 1/10 times'd be pretty pathetic.

PrayingMantis 12-12-2005 03:20 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
[ QUOTE ]
So nobody knows and those who might won't, nor should they, share.

Brilliant.

X

[/ QUOTE ]

While your questions, in essense, are relevant and important, you are basically a troll.

Exsubmariner 12-12-2005 03:27 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
Calling me names is obviously better than not responding at all.

yvesaint 12-12-2005 03:28 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
[ QUOTE ]
Calling me names is obviously better than not responding at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your other thread got closed. Take a hint.

Exsubmariner 12-12-2005 03:34 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So nobody knows and those who might won't, nor should they, share.

Brilliant.

X

[/ QUOTE ]

There are a bunch of problems with answering this question. First, MTTs vary greatly in size and structure. Second, MTTs have huge variance, so you need a ridiculously large sample size of MTTs to get reliable numbers. Third, combine problems one and two, and you see that you need a ridiculously large sample size of similarly structured and sized MTTs, which is really hard to come by.

Really rough numbers (i.e., within maybe a factor of 4) are 100% ROI and 15% ITM.

FT% and win% are totally bogus statistics because FTing a 9000 person MTT 1/10 times'd be amazing, while FTing a 50 person MTT 1/10 times'd be pretty pathetic.

[/ QUOTE ]

This reply makes the most sense out of it. Thanks for taking the time. I have similar ideas. What it boils down to, I guess, is that entering these things should have the same expectation as flushing $100 bills down the toilet. If you can afford to, great, you can, but if you can't you shouldn't. By the time you know it was a bad idea, it's going to be way too late anyway.

X

yvesaint 12-12-2005 03:35 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
[ QUOTE ]

This reply makes the most sense out of it. Thanks for taking the time. I have similar ideas. What it boils down to, I guess, is that entering these things should have the same expectation as flushing $100 bills down the toilet. If you can afford to, great, you can, but if you can't you shouldn't. By the time you know it was a bad idea, it's going to be way too late anyway.

X

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, good conclusion, there is no expectation to playing the 500k

12-12-2005 03:37 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So nobody knows and those who might won't, nor should they, share.

Brilliant.

X

[/ QUOTE ]

There are a bunch of problems with answering this question. First, MTTs vary greatly in size and structure. Second, MTTs have huge variance, so you need a ridiculously large sample size of MTTs to get reliable numbers. Third, combine problems one and two, and you see that you need a ridiculously large sample size of similarly structured and sized MTTs, which is really hard to come by.

Really rough numbers (i.e., within maybe a factor of 4) are 100% ROI and 15% ITM.

FT% and win% are totally bogus statistics because FTing a 9000 person MTT 1/10 times'd be amazing, while FTing a 50 person MTT 1/10 times'd be pretty pathetic.

[/ QUOTE ]

This reply makes the most sense out of it. Thanks for taking the time. I have similar ideas. What it boils down to, I guess, is that entering these things should have the same expectation as flushing $100 bills down the toilet. If you can afford to, great, you can, but if you can't you shouldn't. By the time you know it was a bad idea, it's going to be way too late anyway.

X

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummmm... no. I've met very few people who flush bills down the toilet professionally and most of them have quit by now saying that the myths of easy wealth are bull.

12-12-2005 05:02 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
Yes, flushing $100 bills down a toilet is so parallel to the big tournies. I forgot that in MTTs, you never seen your $100 again. MAN! I wish I knew that only plumbers won the $500k tourney, or I would have quit long ago.

You seem like a person who believes we're all out to harm you, make fun of you, purposely sidestep questions. However, what we're trying to tell you is that your approach here is kind of brash. The answers to these questions are so broad that even trying to give you an exact answer is hard. Yes, someone gave you some rough numbers, and you'll take them into your style and pray for 15% ITM. However, what if you are capable of 20% ITM? What I am saying, as my opinion, is that you need to figure out what YOU want to accomplish and work towards it. How is that not a sufficient answer?

Bill Kolter 12-12-2005 05:57 PM

Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments
 
Why don't you keep track of your own statistics and draw your own conclusions based on your own results? That seems to me to be the easiest--and only--way to come up with a valid answer.


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