Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
 

Hey all,

Here's a hand that I didn't play, but read from someone else. Wondering what people think, I had one gut reaction instantly, but the discussion that evolved made me rethink my thoughts.

Here's the hand.
---------------------------------------------------------
$10 SNG on Party.

The table was unusual for these SnGs in that there was a lot of limping and not much preflop raising.

Seat 1: null2 (1025)
Seat 2: Bob (413)
Seat 3: Joe (1735)
Seat 4: Sam (1261)
Seat 5: HERO (750)
Seat 10: null1 (2816)

Sam posts small blind (25)
HERO posts big blind (50)

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ]
null1 folds.
null2 folds.
Bob raises (100) to 100
Joe calls (100)
Sam calls (75)
HERO calls (50)
-- Pot has 400

** Dealing Flop ** : [ 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ]
Sam bets (85)

I have 650 chips and the pot is now at 485. What should I do?

Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
 

OK, I'll bite.

I push.

Now tell me why I'm wrong.

Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
 

I fold... neither straight nor flush is anywhere close to being the nuts. (unless you hit your straight flush, although that's still NOT going to be the nuts..) I don't think high clubs are going to fold this, neither are hands like JT, or T9, etc...

I think you'll be drawing very thin if you pushed this here, unless your villians are way tight and all fold, which at a $10 Party SNG is highly unlikely.

Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
 

I push. It takes a very special hand to be ahead of us here. Namely, a better hand and a better draw or a set, and there's tons of dead money in the pot.

Board: 9c 8c Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.1515 % 54.34% 00.81% { 9h7c }
Hand 2: 44.8485 % 44.04% 00.81% { JdTs }

Board: 9c 8c Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 61.5152 % 60.10% 01.41% { 9h7c }
Hand 2: 38.4848 % 37.07% 01.41% { Ac8s }

Board: 9c 8c Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.5051 % 43.94% 01.57% { 9h7c }
Hand 2: 54.4949 % 52.93% 01.57% { 8d8s }

Board: 9c 8c Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 38.9899 % 37.58% 01.41% { 9h7c }
Hand 2: 61.0101 % 59.60% 01.41% { AcTs }

Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
 

I probably would have folded preflop despite getting 7-1 odds. But that just shows how weak tight I am.

Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
 

Personally i would fold this pre-flop.

I would definitely fold this flop though, i think that out of the flush outs only 2 are any good (for the straight flush) and we have the wrong end of the straight draw.

Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
 

Fold pre-flop. But that's not what you asked about...

This may sound silly, but I'd straight fold here. You have two other players to act, including a pre-flop raiser. If you push, you'll get called by plenty of people whose hands or future hands (Ac, Jc, set, better two pair) eliminate many or most of your outs. If you call, getting raised is very possible. No card can give you a lock. Every turn card is tainted and/or susceptible to plenty of redraws. You still have a decent stack. Run away.

A real debate would be what to do w/ Jc9h here...

Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
I fold... neither straight nor flush is anywhere close to being the nuts. (unless you hit your straight flush, although that's still NOT going to be the nuts..) I don't think high clubs are going to fold this, neither are hands like JT, or T9, etc...

I think you'll be drawing very thin if you pushed this here, unless your villians are way tight and all fold, which at a $10 Party SNG is highly unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

What, you think they all hit this flop hard?

The point is you will have a strong draw against anyone who didn't flop a flush... and you still have outs even there.

Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I fold... neither straight nor flush is anywhere close to being the nuts. (unless you hit your straight flush, although that's still NOT going to be the nuts..) I don't think high clubs are going to fold this, neither are hands like JT, or T9, etc...

I think you'll be drawing very thin if you pushed this here, unless your villians are way tight and all fold, which at a $10 Party SNG is highly unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

What, you think they all hit this flop hard?

The point is you will have a strong draw against anyone who didn't flop a flush... and you still have outs even there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think anybody with the Ac/Jc (possibly Kc/Qc) is folding here, therefore blowing away most of your outs that make you favourite against a pair. I just don't see you having the 15 outs that you imagine having here.

Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
 

I think what's missing here is the possibility of there being two of these (or similar) hands out there. The fact that it's a multi-way pot drastically reduces your chances of winning, and you didn't even factor in anyone having the Jc.