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-   -   Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=407614)

12-30-2005 04:40 AM

Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
Villain looks like a ABC player, 20/10/2.4 ... Did nothing fancy, always show good hands...

Once again, in my short NL carreer, I can't win with AA and it's definately my most costy hand so far..

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

SB ($16.65)
BB ($24.45)
UTG ($5.75)
MP1 ($44.15)
MP2 ($18.02)
CO ($28.45)
Hero ($30.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10. MP2 posts a blind of $0.35.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2.45) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $9</font>, MP2 calls $13.92 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: $28.37


It really smelt like TT. Big reraise on flop planing to fold an all-in. TT looked like the kind of hand he could cold call PF and indeed, he showed me his hand after..

But still, do you like the fold?

Fallen Hero 12-30-2005 04:43 AM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
you can't fold with those stacks

12-30-2005 04:47 AM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
After posting this, I just realized that 4 more $ was closing the action. I know it looks weak but I was so damn sure he was on a set.. still weak?

xorbie 12-30-2005 04:47 AM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
No need to raise this flop, if you do you have to call.

mudbuddha 12-30-2005 04:56 AM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
yes, top pair and over pair's still pay you off
2 pair, you still have outs against

if he has a set. cheers.

bruin 12-30-2005 04:58 AM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
wow. theres no way you can fold this only having to call 5 more. if he setted up then god bless him.

Maulik 12-30-2005 05:04 AM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
[ QUOTE ]
No need to raise this flop, if you do you have to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

djoyce003 12-30-2005 08:52 AM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
you can't fold here for 4 bucks man, jeez

12-30-2005 09:33 AM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
Your avatar is hypnotising me.

RED FACE 12-30-2005 11:18 AM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
You played poker instead of playing math - great fold. You saved yourself 16bb's. Make notes on your opponent. The size of your raise defined his hand for you pretty well although he's short so it still may be hard to tell without more info on him. If you think you could've accomplished the same thing by betting less then you should've as the only point of your raise at that time was to get info imo-really you want to bet enough to make him 3bet a monster but not enough so he folds a weaker(AT) hand. If I'm willing to fold this hand on the flop I raise less - just over a min raise.

tripp0807 12-30-2005 11:56 AM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
[ QUOTE ]
You played poker instead of playing math - great fold. You saved yourself 16bb's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nonsense. Complete ignorance of the math aspects of poker is a surefire way to lose.

$5 into a $28 pot with 2 cards to come while holding AA? Folding here is absurd regardless of reads in a cash game.

12-30-2005 12:25 PM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
[ QUOTE ]
You played poker instead of playing math - great fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought this was sarcastic when I first read it.

You are the definition of pot-stuck here. Let's look at the math.

You're getting about 6:1 on your money for the call. If you're behind, you're a 10:1 dog. If you're ahead, you're a 10:1 favorite.

When you're behind, 10 times you will lose $5, one time you will win $28, for a net loss of $22, or a net loss of $2 per hand.

When you're ahead, 10 times you will win $28, one time you will lose $5, for a net profit of $275 or a net profit of $25 per hand.

Now let's assume that 90 percent of the time, villain does indeed have a set.

Nine hands out of ten, you will lose $2 net. One hand out of ten, you will profit $25 net. It's a net profit of $7, or $.70 per hand. So getting 6:1 on your money is plenty -- even the math dictates a call!

When villain is that short in the stack, you've just got to decide after his flop bet if you're willing to commit if villain pushes. This was a cold-deck hand, but you can't fold it after what you've already put in.

Hey, I had KK with a flop of K64 yesterday, got it all in for $170 against AA and villain sucked an A out on the river to beat me. You'll have to do the same in this case.

Isura 12-30-2005 12:27 PM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
[ QUOTE ]

You played poker instead of playing math - great fold

[/ QUOTE ]

With enough information, it's ALL math.

RED FACE 12-30-2005 12:41 PM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You played poker instead of playing math - great fold

[/ QUOTE ]

With enough information, it's ALL math.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's true. This auto call stuff is nonsense. If the info is villain has a set he needs to win about twice as much as he actually would if he sucks out. I think if this info is right 90% of the time calling is still at least a slight loser. The break even point may be around 85%-just guessing.

RED FACE 12-30-2005 12:50 PM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
I can't agree on your 10:1 favorite number if ahead. 7.6:1 if villain has JJ and much worse is villain has a str8 draw. I think this is correct.

12-30-2005 01:08 PM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
If villain has JJ, he's drawing to 2 outs and hero is thus a 10:1 favorite. And do you really put villain on J9? Hero described him as a straightforward player, not loose. Would he call a 4x raise with J9 out of position with only half a stack? I guess you never know in this donk-laden world.

12-30-2005 01:16 PM

welcome to poker
 
Eh, seems like these top pair / overpair hands vs. a lot of resistance are the most common difficulty.

My first thought was to immediately call with only $4 or $5 more to go. However, looking at the board and the action, I'm starting to like the fold.

Here are my numbers on it, using Harrington's rule that there's always at least a 10% chance of bluffing.

First, given villain's stats, I think we can safely rule out JJ/QQ/KK/AA/AK. A PFR of 10, with only folds in front of him would certainly raise these hands.

AT is also very unlikely, given your hand. KT? Maybe, but a VPIP of 20 is fairly tight.

The preflop call would certainly make sense with a small pocket pair. I really am having trouble putting him on any other hand. Why?

(1) There's no flush draw out there to semi-bluff
(2) He could semi-bluff with the OESD, but then he would have had to call the PFR with something like 97 or Q9. PLUS, he lead the flop, got reraised, and then pushed.

For the above argument, I'm going to run the numbers assuming he has 88 (numbers for 44,TT are about the same). I'll include a 10% chance of a sheer bluff (say top pair only), and a 10% chance that he's holding a lower overpair (JJ,QQ,KK)

Total Bluff (just top pair,3straight)
Td 9c - 24% to win
As Ac - 76% to win

Vs. Lower Overpair
As Ac - 92%
Kd Kh - 8%

Vs. Set
As Ac - 9%
8c 8h - 92%

If you call and lose, you lose 4.92 more.
If you call and win, you net 28.37

so,
SET: (.92)(-4.92)+(.08)(28.37) = -2.25
KK: (.92)(28.37)+(.08)(-4.92) = +25.7
Bluff: (.76)(28.37) + (.24)(-4.92) = +20.38

overall,
.80(-2.25)+.10(25.7)+.10(20.38) = +2.8

So, this looks like a positive EV call, if you think there's at least a 10% chance he's on a total bluff, and a 10% chance he has just an overpair.

If you assume only the 10% chance of the overpair:
(.9)(-2.25)+(.1)(25.7) = .54

Still slightly +EV here.

Given that, I think a call is alright.

teamdonkey 12-30-2005 01:23 PM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
i fold this absolutely never. Don't underestimate people's ability to overplay their hands, you're shown A10 K10 Q10 J10 just as often as you are 1010 here.

12-30-2005 01:29 PM

Re: welcome to poker
 
Your math is better than mine, z2, but we arrive at nearly the exact conclusion: it's a marginally +EV call anyway, even if villain holds dreaded set the vast majority of the time. To go this far and fold AA when you're getting 6:1 is a disaster.

12-30-2005 01:43 PM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
[ QUOTE ]
But still, do you like the fold?

[/ QUOTE ]
is not the question. The question is, wtf are you doing here:

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: ($2.45) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $9</font>, MP2 calls $13.92 (All-In), Hero folds.

[/ QUOTE ]
if you're going to fold to a push of $5 more?!?!

Don't pat yourself on the back for your all-star fold; take a look at how you ended up in such a bad spot.

P.S. raise more pf

tripp0807 12-30-2005 01:46 PM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
I think that OP is outhinking himself on this hand. I very much doubt that villian has a set most of the time. You're giving way too much credit to you typical SSNL donk. The overbet of the pot post flop seems to have "I have top pair and I need to protect it" written all over it.

12-30-2005 02:21 PM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
Another reason to call here is for your mental health. If you fold, and he shows you JJ, how will you handle that mentally. Alot of poeple would tilt, and possibly cost themselves more than just calling and losing to TT.

poboy 12-30-2005 02:28 PM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
When I first read this I thought you were joking, after reading your other posts I realize you're not. You can't really believe this is a good fold? Keep in mind this is SSNL and villian will have overcards,TP, or some other nonsense as often as he'll have the set. JMO

beavens 12-30-2005 03:26 PM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
i'm not folding here.

12-31-2005 07:36 PM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
Great, let me conclude this thread.

I donked.

Here's why :

1) I have very few NL experience. Around 1000 hands, no more.

2) I didn't pay attention to stacks, due to lack of experience. I really put villain on TT right from start. Made a raise on flop to confirm my thoughts planing to fold to a reraise being now convinced he has TT. I folded because I was sure to be beaten (giving a lot of credit to villain tho..), didn't notice while playing the hand that it was only 4-5$ more (became blind after being sure that I was beaten) and also because I've been stacked with every single AA hand so far and was like : Not this time! All this reasoning resulted poor play.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But still, do you like the fold?

[/ QUOTE ]
is not the question. The question is, wtf are you doing here:

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: ($2.45) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $9</font>, MP2 calls $13.92 (All-In), Hero folds.

[/ QUOTE ]
if you're going to fold to a push of $5 more?!?!

Don't pat yourself on the back for your all-star fold; take a look at how you ended up in such a bad spot.



[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for being rude and straightforward with me, honnestly, I'll remember the lesson for sure [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Thanks for those who made the math out of this. What seems like a desperate situation is very reasonably still +EV for a call, which wasn't that obvious for me.

Wow, I like this forum... thanks.

.fs.

12-31-2005 07:57 PM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?
 
This fold seems to be costly. There is $28.37 in the pot, costing you $4.92 to call his all-in bet. Your odds, 5.8-1 should be strong enough to warrant a call. This flop, consisting of rainbow low cards, requires an immediate call.


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