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-   -   Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=407614)

 tripp0807 12-30-2005 11:56 AM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?

[ QUOTE ]
You played poker instead of playing math - great fold. You saved yourself 16bb's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nonsense. Complete ignorance of the math aspects of poker is a surefire way to lose.

\$5 into a \$28 pot with 2 cards to come while holding AA? Folding here is absurd regardless of reads in a cash game.

 12-30-2005 12:25 PM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?

[ QUOTE ]
You played poker instead of playing math - great fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought this was sarcastic when I first read it.

You are the definition of pot-stuck here. Let's look at the math.

You're getting about 6:1 on your money for the call. If you're behind, you're a 10:1 dog. If you're ahead, you're a 10:1 favorite.

When you're behind, 10 times you will lose \$5, one time you will win \$28, for a net loss of \$22, or a net loss of \$2 per hand.

When you're ahead, 10 times you will win \$28, one time you will lose \$5, for a net profit of \$275 or a net profit of \$25 per hand.

Now let's assume that 90 percent of the time, villain does indeed have a set.

Nine hands out of ten, you will lose \$2 net. One hand out of ten, you will profit \$25 net. It's a net profit of \$7, or \$.70 per hand. So getting 6:1 on your money is plenty -- even the math dictates a call!

When villain is that short in the stack, you've just got to decide after his flop bet if you're willing to commit if villain pushes. This was a cold-deck hand, but you can't fold it after what you've already put in.

Hey, I had KK with a flop of K64 yesterday, got it all in for \$170 against AA and villain sucked an A out on the river to beat me. You'll have to do the same in this case.

 Isura 12-30-2005 12:27 PM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?

[ QUOTE ]

You played poker instead of playing math - great fold

[/ QUOTE ]

With enough information, it's ALL math.

 RED FACE 12-30-2005 12:41 PM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You played poker instead of playing math - great fold

[/ QUOTE ]

With enough information, it's ALL math.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's true. This auto call stuff is nonsense. If the info is villain has a set he needs to win about twice as much as he actually would if he sucks out. I think if this info is right 90% of the time calling is still at least a slight loser. The break even point may be around 85%-just guessing.

 RED FACE 12-30-2005 12:50 PM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?

I can't agree on your 10:1 favorite number if ahead. 7.6:1 if villain has JJ and much worse is villain has a str8 draw. I think this is correct.

 12-30-2005 01:08 PM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?

If villain has JJ, he's drawing to 2 outs and hero is thus a 10:1 favorite. And do you really put villain on J9? Hero described him as a straightforward player, not loose. Would he call a 4x raise with J9 out of position with only half a stack? I guess you never know in this donk-laden world.

 12-30-2005 01:16 PM

welcome to poker

Eh, seems like these top pair / overpair hands vs. a lot of resistance are the most common difficulty.

My first thought was to immediately call with only \$4 or \$5 more to go. However, looking at the board and the action, I'm starting to like the fold.

Here are my numbers on it, using Harrington's rule that there's always at least a 10% chance of bluffing.

First, given villain's stats, I think we can safely rule out JJ/QQ/KK/AA/AK. A PFR of 10, with only folds in front of him would certainly raise these hands.

AT is also very unlikely, given your hand. KT? Maybe, but a VPIP of 20 is fairly tight.

The preflop call would certainly make sense with a small pocket pair. I really am having trouble putting him on any other hand. Why?

(1) There's no flush draw out there to semi-bluff
(2) He could semi-bluff with the OESD, but then he would have had to call the PFR with something like 97 or Q9. PLUS, he lead the flop, got reraised, and then pushed.

For the above argument, I'm going to run the numbers assuming he has 88 (numbers for 44,TT are about the same). I'll include a 10% chance of a sheer bluff (say top pair only), and a 10% chance that he's holding a lower overpair (JJ,QQ,KK)

Total Bluff (just top pair,3straight)
Td 9c - 24% to win
As Ac - 76% to win

Vs. Lower Overpair
As Ac - 92%
Kd Kh - 8%

Vs. Set
As Ac - 9%
8c 8h - 92%

If you call and lose, you lose 4.92 more.
If you call and win, you net 28.37

so,
SET: (.92)(-4.92)+(.08)(28.37) = -2.25
KK: (.92)(28.37)+(.08)(-4.92) = +25.7
Bluff: (.76)(28.37) + (.24)(-4.92) = +20.38

overall,
.80(-2.25)+.10(25.7)+.10(20.38) = +2.8

So, this looks like a positive EV call, if you think there's at least a 10% chance he's on a total bluff, and a 10% chance he has just an overpair.

If you assume only the 10% chance of the overpair:
(.9)(-2.25)+(.1)(25.7) = .54

Still slightly +EV here.

Given that, I think a call is alright.

 teamdonkey 12-30-2005 01:23 PM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?

i fold this absolutely never. Don't underestimate people's ability to overplay their hands, you're shown A10 K10 Q10 J10 just as often as you are 1010 here.

 12-30-2005 01:29 PM

Re: welcome to poker

Your math is better than mine, z2, but we arrive at nearly the exact conclusion: it's a marginally +EV call anyway, even if villain holds dreaded set the vast majority of the time. To go this far and fold AA when you're getting 6:1 is a disaster.

 12-30-2005 01:43 PM

Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?

[ QUOTE ]
But still, do you like the fold?

[/ QUOTE ]
is not the question. The question is, wtf are you doing here:

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: (\$2.45) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets \$3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to \$9</font>, MP2 calls \$13.92 (All-In), Hero folds.

[/ QUOTE ]
if you're going to fold to a push of \$5 more?!?!

Don't pat yourself on the back for your all-star fold; take a look at how you ended up in such a bad spot.

P.S. raise more pf

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