Hand...
 

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (4 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (3 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

River: (5 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero...

This was a confusing hand.

Krishan

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I'm 3-betting and fairly happily calling a cap.

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I'm 3-betting and fairly happily calling a cap.

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PF is meh. You can probably pick a better spot then 92s. But it is something I do from time to time to though [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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I'm 3-betting and fairly happily calling a cap.

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I was originally all for this thinking that many Ax hands will think they have you beat. On top of that, many Ax hands might open from the SB. I want to 3-bet so badly, but I could see myself losing to JJ and AA if villain caps and I'm surely not folding.

This seemed so straight forward, but now I think I feel as confused as OP as what should be the best line.

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I was originally all for this thinking that many Ax hands will think they have you beat. On top of that, many Ax hands might open from the SB. I want to 3-bet so badly, but I could see myself losing to JJ and AA if villain caps and I'm surely not folding.

This seemed so straight forward, but now I think I feel as confused as OP as what should be the best line.

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There are a lot more combos of Ax hands than JJ or AA.

I 3-bet the monkey. Call a cap.

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I was originally all for this thinking that many Ax hands will think they have you beat. On top of that, many Ax hands might open from the SB. I want to 3-bet so badly, but I could see myself losing to JJ and AA if villain caps and I'm surely not folding.

This seemed so straight forward, but now I think I feel as confused as OP as what should be the best line.

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There are a lot more combos of Ax hands than JJ or AA.

I 3-bet the monkey. Call a cap.

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Does hand reading support Ax?

Krishan

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I was originally all for this thinking that many Ax hands will think they have you beat. On top of that, many Ax hands might open from the SB. I want to 3-bet so badly, but I could see myself losing to JJ and AA if villain caps and I'm surely not folding.

This seemed so straight forward, but now I think I feel as confused as OP as what should be the best line.

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There are a lot more combos of Ax hands than JJ or AA.

I 3-bet the monkey. Call a cap.

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Does hand reading support Ax?

Krishan

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Hand reading really doesn't support much right now. You provided no reads, and it's very possible that a player could play AK etc. this way trying to extract the maximum from a hand like K5 (which would often confusedly call the river), etc. His handrange is wide enough here that you're ahead 66% at the least, I'd be guessing.

I also fold this preflop.

Rob

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I was originally all for this thinking that many Ax hands will think they have you beat. On top of that, many Ax hands might open from the SB. I want to 3-bet so badly, but I could see myself losing to JJ and AA if villain caps and I'm surely not folding.

This seemed so straight forward, but now I think I feel as confused as OP as what should be the best line.

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There are a lot more combos of Ax hands than JJ or AA.

I 3-bet the monkey. Call a cap.

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Does hand reading support Ax?

Krishan

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Hand reading really doesn't support much right now. You provided no reads, and it's very possible that a player could play AK etc. this way trying to extract the maximum from a hand like K5 (which would often confusedly call the river), etc. His handrange is wide enough here that you're ahead 66% at the least, I'd be guessing.

I also fold this preflop.

Rob

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Well, I guess I don't think a pair of aces will check this turn that often. And I don't think a pair of aces (other than AK,AJ) will checkraise the river. And that's assuming those hands check the turn.

It's just a strange hand that if I thought through all the way I could justify just calling the river cr. Maybe not.

Krishan

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I was originally all for this thinking that many Ax hands will think they have you beat. On top of that, many Ax hands might open from the SB. I want to 3-bet so badly, but I could see myself losing to JJ and AA if villain caps and I'm surely not folding.

This seemed so straight forward, but now I think I feel as confused as OP as what should be the best line.

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There are a lot more combos of Ax hands than JJ or AA.

I 3-bet the monkey. Call a cap.

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Does hand reading support Ax?

Krishan

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Hand reading really doesn't support much right now. You provided no reads, and it's very possible that a player could play AK etc. this way trying to extract the maximum from a hand like K5 (which would often confusedly call the river), etc. His handrange is wide enough here that you're ahead 66% at the least, I'd be guessing.

I also fold this preflop.

Rob

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Well, I guess I don't think a pair of aces will check this turn that often. And I don't think a pair of aces (other than AK,AJ) will checkraise the river. And that's assuming those hands check the turn.

It's just a strange hand that if I thought through all the way I could justify just calling the river cr. Maybe not.

Krishan

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If AK wouldn't check this river, would JJ?

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If AK wouldn't check this river, would JJ?

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They both would check the river. But I'm discounting AK based on the turn. I do think AK is a possible holding for Villian.

Krishan

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post removed b/c I forgot the proper action and it had no value

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I've seen this line multiple times from Ax. Guy just wants to be "tricky." He checks the A on the turn so you think he doesn't have it. Then CR the river. You're owning him, easy 3bet and call a cap.

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I'm 3-betting and fairly happily calling a cap.

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I like your point on the turn, AK does not seem likely to check there. It is HU, so maybe villain is playing a little strange and was hoping you had a worse A? If I were villain and had AK and somehow checked the turn, I just don't think I would check the river. I don't know what hands would be a good fit for a river c/r, it's not like you've shown a lot of aggression here.

Then again, as somethingclever states, it could be someone thinking they are being tricky and I'm over thinking it and missing out on value.

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If AK wouldn't check this river, would JJ?

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They both would check the river. But I'm discounting AK based on the turn. I do think AK is a possible holding for Villian.

Krishan

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Your hand doesn't look like Ax -- so why would he check the turn with JJ but bet with AK? One would think he'd be more inclined to bet JJ if he's going to bet one of the hands, as it's more vulnerable than AK here.

Not that I'm giving this guy much credit for thinking on a decent level here, but his hand is pretty hard to read. I've seen Ax played this way often enough that I'm ok with putting more bets in on the river.

Rob

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Your hand doesn't look like Ax -- so why would he check the turn with JJ but bet with AK? One would think he'd be more inclined to bet JJ if he's going to bet one of the hands, as it's more vulnerable than AK here.

Not that I'm giving this guy much credit for thinking on a decent level here, but his hand is pretty hard to read. I've seen Ax played this way often enough that I'm ok with putting more bets in on the river.

Rob

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Sounds good. As you inferred he had JJ. His play is actually internally consistent. But I think I'll see AK or a weak ace or AJ often enough to 3-bet here (which I did)

Krishan

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Well, now you know that he plays uber-predictably, instead of uber-tricky.

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Off-topic, but is this a standard PF call for you? I cannot think of any opponent I'm going to play 29, suited or not, against.

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This is a very difficult situation without any read. I object to the preflop call at a datamining site such as Party Poker. You have no business playing a supermarginal hand in the total dark versus someone who may have thousands of hands of stats on you.

The turn suggests that Villain has no interest in getting you to fold. If he had nothing to show he would either bet or checkfold.

Why didn't he bet? Not because he was afraid you would call. He must fear either the fold or the raise:

1. Monsters fear folds: A9, 55, AA, K9, Q9. Villain reasons that the appearance of the ace probably kills his action on this arid flop. Versus an aggressive opponent he switches to induce/slowplay mode.

2. Turtles fear raises: pocket pairs and fives. Villain is scared of both the ace and the nines and calls down.

Checkraising the river is an obvious monster play and a ridiculous turtle play. Of course the hooks turtle just switched teams.

It took me a long time to analyze this, but now that I've thought this through I think you are almost always screwed and reraising is out of the question.

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I would call but I think it might be close. Unlike other posters, I really don't see big aces played like this. I think he has JJ a lot here. AA also might play like this.

I am almost positive it is closer than most of the other posters have suggested. If I 3bet, there is no way I would be "happy" when I called a cap.

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It took me a long time to analyze this, but now that I've thought this through I think you are almost always screwed and reraising is out of the question.

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I think you're off here, Stellar. There are a wide variety of hands that a wide variety of Villain's could play like this. An aggressive stealer could open any 2, continue on the flop, pick up a FD on the turn, and C/R bluff the river as a last chance to win the hand. An aggressive player could play a PP like this. An aggressive player could play a 5 like this, or a hand with a J in it like this. A neutral-ish player (aggression-wise) could play until the river like this -- on the river we should be more concerned, but he could still be playing a variety of Ax hands like this as well as a J, sometimes a PP, sometimes a desperation bluff-raise. A passive player is cause for greater concern. I don't think a passive player ever plays a 9 like this, but the improbable JJ, a weirdly played AJ, a J5 (if such a player could raise this pre-flop), etc. Even among passive players, you're going to see Ax played like this quite a bit from those who think they're tricky poker experts.

We don't have a read on the player, so we don't know what sort of player he is, but on balance most guys in this game are going to fall on the neutral-to-aggressive side of the line. And Krishan's play gives no indication whatsoever that Villain should need a monster to C/R the river -- Krishan called the raise pre, called the flop, and bet when checked to on the turn. I think, if Krishan is unknwon to Villain, Villain could reasonably assume that Krishan has air here (which makes Villain's turn and river play very bad). This sort of betting pattern between SB and BB happens all the time, and until the river C/R there is nothing especially informative about the betting patterns -- now the C/R gives us the the best actionable information on Villain's holding, but I think his range (as an unknown sitting at a PP 10/20 table) is more than wide enough that a 3-bet is the best on this river, even when we know we're always calling a cap.

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An aggressive stealer could open any 2, continue on the flop, pick up a FD on the turn, and C/R bluff the river as a last chance to win the hand

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99.9% of the aggressive stealers I've played against would either bet or checkraise this turn with a flush draw.

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An aggressive player could play a PP like this. An aggressive player could play a 5 like this, or a hand with a J in it like this.

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If they have those hands they usually want to showdown with them for cheap. I see no reason why they would checkraise the river, they probably think there is a decent chance they are good and just want to showdown.

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99.9% of the aggressive stealers I've played against would either bet or checkraise this turn with a flush draw.

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Yes, many would. But your hyperbole is too much. There's a decent subset of these players who will ck-cl the the turn planning on C/Ring any river (flush or otherwise), IMHO.

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If they have those hands they usually want to showdown with them for cheap. I see no reason why they would checkraise the river, they probably think there is a decent chance they are good and just want to showdown.

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I see no reason why they would want to do so either without a read on Krishan that is inaccurate (i.e., that he's no good and will call the river C/R with goofy stuff). But because I don't see why they would, doesn't mean that they don't have a reason. You don't think aggressive guys try and get an extra bet from a (presumably) unknown instead of just looking to SD a possible winner? I think that's more likely with a naked 5, but think you'll see this line from Ax a lot, and from a J sometimes, and from a PP often enough not to dismiss ot from the range.

Do you agree with Stellar that an unknown's range given the action and board makes reraising out of the question?

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This looks very much like a FPS monster to me. JJ makes the most sense. I think it is very unlikely that he has Ax. I don't think we are good 66% so I would just call.

Cartman

Re: Hand...
 

Well I'm not saying it's impossible that you will be raised by a jack or pocket pair here, but I just really can't remember it ever happening to me in a similar spot. As for the comment about the flush draw, I think if he's aggressive he seriously bets or checkraises about 90-95% of the time. What do you think that number is?

I don't think reraising is "out of the question" at all. But I think if your 3bet is called or reraised, you're winning here (not including splitting which we can ignore) somewhere between 50-60% of the time. Thats just a guess though...I really don't know.

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I think 75+% you'll see a bet or a C/R from a FD here - which is still a biggish number but not quite as high as I guess you think.

And I agree partially on the chances we're good -- I think when we're capped we're a decent dog; but I think when we're just called we're in very good shape. And, though I can't hazard a guess on the blended percentage, my thought is that we're called way more often than capped.

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And I agree partially on the chances we're good -- I think when we're capped we're a decent dog; but I think when we're just called we're in very good shape. And, though I can't hazard a guess on the blended percentage, my thought is that we're called way more often than capped

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Ya, what I was just trying to say with that 50-60 statement (which was a little cryptic), was that I don't think you are good the requisite 66% here if we assume villain never folds, and always reraises with better hands. If he folds some of the hands you are ahead of , we need to be ahead a greater percentage.

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An aggressive stealer could open any 2, continue on the flop, pick up a FD on the turn, and C/R bluff the river as a last chance to win the hand

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99.9% of the aggressive stealers I've played against would either bet or checkraise this turn with a flush draw.

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An aggressive player could play a PP like this. An aggressive player could play a 5 like this, or a hand with a J in it like this.

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If they have those hands they usually want to showdown with them for cheap. I see no reason why they would checkraise the river, they probably think there is a decent chance they are good and just want to showdown.

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This is essentially my answer too.

That a steal-minded PFR Villain would not represent the ace by betting (or rarely checkraising) the turn is shocking. I think the inference that checkcall means too good to bluff is very strong. Of course Villain could have the flush draw if he is very passive about semibluffing, but then he won't be bluff checkraising the river.

There is also the issue that checkraise bluffers don't usually call reraises.

This 3-bet needs to make its money off of Ax and underpair hands that went for the exotic delayed value sexy with a moderate made hand. Far be it from me to say that this play is never made, after all everything happens in this game, but offhand I can't remember ever seeing it.

Once again there is the issue that one-pair hands may fold. Overall you will virtually always be capped when you are behind, virtually never be capped when you are scooping, and will frequently not be paid when you are best. The odds are really stacked against this 3-bet.

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I would like a flop raise here to not put a lot of pressure on an A high hand an encourage a call down.

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No reads? Hmmmm.....

This is one of those situations where "your guess is as good as mine". No matter what villain had this hand, it's fairly clear that he sucked at playing it. If he has a worse hand than you do, he'll only succeed in losing more when he's already behind. If he has a monster, he'll only succeed in making more when you have a slightly smaller monster. His line bites the big one.

That said, your river play is all about how frisky you feel. If you feel like being conservative, call. If you feel like being aggressive, raise. I've seen both Aces and monsters played this way (very rarely in both cases) and every time it was done so by a donkey. Considering he sucks, it really doesn't matter much what you do. You will be right enough times to offset the times you're wrong and you will be wrong enough times to offset the times you're right.

Of course, any slight read of the opponent (even 10 hands) would sway the river decision one way or another. Without that, I see no reason to even play 92s for the raise as another poster (Stellar, I think [I'm too lazy to look back]) pointed out.

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you're HU have trips, raise it. What is there to think about? Save bets somewhere else

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Stellar and Lemon are enough to sway me. The lower the limit, the more likely the donkey and the better the 3-bet. I think at 10/20+ you start to get to the point where the 3-bet is -EV because there aren't enough donks to cover. I guess this is another varient of the good but second best hand theme.

Krishan

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Just a preflop comment...while a read would be helpful, I think defending with 92s here is fine. The good odds you are getting plus position make it a pretty marginal call.

I would fold 92s and often much better hands if I were SB.