Two Plus Two Older Archives

Two Plus Two Older Archives (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/index.php)
-   Internet Gambling (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/forumdisplay.php?f=26)
-   -   Guy with a 4 to 1 chip lead settles for a split. (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=407506)

hemstock 12-30-2005 12:39 AM

Guy with a 4 to 1 chip lead settles for a split.
 
First place pays 10k, second place about 5.5k
This guy has almost 5 million in chips the other guy has less than 1.5, and he settles for a split, 7k for the low stack, the rest (~8.5) for him.
Does this make sense? Wasn't that stupid?

PartySNGer 12-30-2005 12:44 AM

Re: Guy with a 4 to 1 chip lead settles for a split.
 
I'm not 100% sure on the math, but since each player is guaranteed 5.5k, then that leaves the 4.5k difference between 1st and 2nd. The chip leader had 80% of the chips, so he should get 80% of the 4.5k + 5.5k (assuming similar talent). So he should have gotten a little over 9k, but he's not getting screwed as badly as you think, especially if he doesnt think he's a very good HU player.

orentha 12-30-2005 12:45 AM

Re: Guy with a 4 to 1 chip lead settles for a split.
 
sounds dumb to me...

maybe he sucks at heads up or something. or didn't think he had a good chance against the other guy for some reason.

Schwartzy61 12-30-2005 12:58 AM

Re: Guy with a 4 to 1 chip lead settles for a split.
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not 100% sure on the math, but since each player is guaranteed 5.5k, then that leaves the 4.5k difference between 1st and 2nd. The chip leader had 80% of the chips, so he should get 80% of the 4.5k + 5.5k (assuming similar talent). So he should have gotten a little over 9k, but he's not getting screwed as badly as you think, especially if he doesnt think he's a very good HU player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually it's not even 80% of the chips because he has almost 5 mil while the guy has somewhere between 1 and 1.5 million. So it's probably more like 70/30 or 2.5 to 1.

Using those numbers he's walking away with basically what his EV should probably be in that situation right? 70% of the 4.5k + 5.5k guaranteed = 8.65k.

I'm not sure if it was AS wrong as OP makes it out to be.

Then again I'm not a tourney player and from what I've read on the subject there is no point in making any deals, especially when you are ahead...

BigF 12-30-2005 01:52 PM

Re: Guy with a 4 to 1 chip lead settles for a split.
 
[ QUOTE ]
sounds dumb to me...

maybe he sucks at heads up or something. or didn't think he had a good chance against the other guy for some reason.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's EV. Then there's CE(Certainty Equivalence).

It's not always a dumb move to settle for less than EV.

danzasmack 12-30-2005 01:59 PM

Re: Guy with a 4 to 1 chip lead settles for a split.
 
OP,

also take time into consideration. Chip leader may have obligations.

pokergrader 12-30-2005 02:56 PM

Re: Guy with a 4 to 1 chip lead settles for a split.
 
You also have to account for misclicks.

2+2 wannabe 12-30-2005 03:59 PM

Re: Guy with a 4 to 1 chip lead settles for a split.
 
[ QUOTE ]
Then again I'm not a tourney player and from what I've read on the subject there is no point in making any deals, especially when you are ahead...

[/ QUOTE ]

Dr. Prof. Sir David Sklansky says deals are usually better for the chip leaders, relative to the ones who are behind

Phill S 12-30-2005 04:07 PM

Re: Guy with a 4 to 1 chip lead settles for a split.
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Then again I'm not a tourney player and from what I've read on the subject there is no point in making any deals, especially when you are ahead...

[/ QUOTE ]

Dr. Prof. Sir David Sklansky says deals are usually better for the chip leaders, relative to the ones who are behind

[/ QUOTE ]

I find it hard to take advice on making deals from someone who hardly plays any tourneys.

Dont get me wrong, im sure there is plenty of good maths behind his statement, but it still sits wrong with me.

Beavis68 12-30-2005 04:48 PM

Re: Guy with a 4 to 1 chip lead settles for a split.
 
Based on what I have read elsewhere, it he got about $500 less than a typical deal, not too bad.


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:13 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.