Re: Weak Overcard Play
 

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I want to understand your reasoning against my "meta-game" continuation bet.

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[DavidC paragraph]

I am coming more and more to the conclusion that at nano- and micro-limits any justification for an action that includes the words "meta game" is completely specious. First, the vast majority of the players you're up against aren't paying any attention to what you're doing or devoting any attention to what you might be holding. Second, if you happen to sit down with one that is trying to pay attention his sample size is going to be so small that he's not going to have anything beyond a default read on what your actions mean. Third, if you have a player at your table advanced enough to be able to pay attention, it's pretty likely that he's multi-tabling and so playing ABC and relying on PA-HUD stats for his reads. And finally, as I said, it's irrelevant most of the time anyway, because even if he says to himself, "Self, these are the actions of a player holding an overpair!" he's going to follow that right up with, "But, he might also be playing overcards strongly, so I'm going to call down with my pair of threes," because THAT'S what he really wants to do, and so he's going to find a reason that will allow him to do it, if he's got a hand that he played against your preflop raise.

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Understood and agreed. Thanx

Re: Weak Overcard Play
 

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AQo is very tough UTG, maybe just call and hope for a short handed flop, raising can get you into trouble, if there are 2 callers even, your equity drops, and you'r out of position.

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You completely contradict yourself here. We shouldn't raise, since they might call and we're OOP in a multiway pot. So we limp, and pray that they don't limp also. The people who would have called our raise: will they call when we limp? What about the ones that wouldn't call a raise, but will limp?

Raising AQo UTG is completely standard. Knowing how to play it unimproved and out of position is the only prerequisite.

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Flop: This flop isn't too bad for AQo, your overcard outs are probably still good. I would bet and raise semibluff, protect those overcard outs aggressively.


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Protect our outs from what? Look, this *is* a bad flop for AQo: that's why advice is being sought. Q38 rainbow: that's a good flop for AQo. (unless you limped UTG, and let 33 follow suit).

There's nothing remotely semi about the recommended bet-raise bluff.

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Turn: Bet out again, keep in mind you're drawing dead to a set, but you may get a hand like 55 to fold here.

River: when the flush card hits it's time to represent it, you may get someone who has a 9 or 7 to fold. Do not show the hand down, either re-raise or fold if it is raised back to you. If it is capped fold. If you get called you're toast, but that's the danger in AQo UTG.

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This kind of advice is gonna get people burned. You're recommending doing crazy and expensive things in a small pot that we can only rarely pick up. Flailing around like a schizo with a chainsaw isn't going to win pots.

Also, you *really* can't represent the flush if you've bet-raised the flop and bet the turn. Honestly, there are a fair few words in your post, but the crib notes would read: "bet and raise, because they might fold." Thing is, they probably won't, and you're spewing a lot of chips to try to make them.