21 point teaser EV question
 

This is kind of a probability question but it relates to NFL betting so I'll post it here:

My friend is thinking of doing a 10 team, 21 point teaser for the NFL. He has to risk $170 to win $100. He has to go 10/10 to win, but he gets 21 points for each game.

What is the EV for this and how would one calculate it?

Re: 21 point teaser EV question
 

Using data from NFL games from 93 to 04, I get 94.837% of the games that a team managed to cover the spread +21 points. I'm not sure how ties effect this bet, but I will ignore them for now.

Anyway, the probability of winning this is simply .94837^10 or about 58.85%. That's not enough to make it profitable (needs ~63%) but it's not impossible that if your friend picks the correct 10 sides that it could be +EV.

Frankly I'm a little surprised because when I read this I thought it would be a much bigger "suckers" bet.

Edit: What are the rules on ties? This could have a pretty significant effect, and if "ties lose" is the case, the win pct drops to 55.3%.

Re: 21 point teaser EV question
 

My guess is that ties lose. The OP said you had to win them all. Of course, they could just mean that you can't lose even one.

craig

Re: 21 point teaser EV question
 

Doug, Where do you get those stats, i'm kind of new to sports betting. Thanks.

Re: 21 point teaser EV question
 

Can you include totals too, or just sides?

Re: 21 point teaser EV question
 

Anyone know what site takes this bet? If it is not appropriate to say feel free to pm me.

Re: 21 point teaser EV question
 

5Dimes takes these things. They call them Monster Teasers and ties lose.

Tech...you can use totals in them too,even team totals. I was looking at them the week Baltimore played Pittsburgh and the over for the Ravens for a 14 pt teaser was 4 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 21 point teaser EV question
 

5dimes does take this kind of bet but not at those odds.

Re: 21 point teaser EV question
 

I'd also like to know what site your using for this.

Re: 21 point teaser EV question
 

[ QUOTE ]
5Dimes takes these things. They call them Monster Teasers and ties lose.

Tech...you can use totals in them too,even team totals. I was looking at them the week Baltimore played Pittsburgh and the over for the Ravens for a 14 pt teaser was 4


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but there is no way they can do it at those odds, at least I don't think. I haven't done the math on this, but here is my gut feeling. If I have to make 10 selections on sides teasing 21 points each at -170, I'm not sure that is +EV. If I can include sides and totals, I'm pretty sure it would be +EV. If I can include sides, totals, and team totals, the place will be broke in a month. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]