Speculative Ax suited.. River decision with position?
 

Reads:

PT doesn't work on my machine..
I'm TAG and usually get respect when in a pot.. I take down to many PF with raises so I'm expanding my playable hands slightly... a little limping and a little raising...

I'm normally 20/13/?...

PF Limp here? Fold here? I don't think a raise is warrented here?

Flop I think is a little standard.... comments?

Turn... Raising to see if I'm chasing AK, AQ, a set... some silly flush draw or nonsense?



($3/$6 Hold'em)
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Started at 21/Dec/05 22:41:53

VET_TAG is at seat 0 with $164.50.
THINKING_LAG is at seat 1 with $152.50.
UNKNOWN1 is at seat 2 with $116.
SEEMS_GOODISH is at seat 3 with $59.
VETERAN_LAG is at seat 4 with $295.50.
COMPLETELY_UNKNOWN is at seat 5 with $83.
UNKNOWN_BUT_LOSING is at seat 6 with $100.
EVERY_POT_LAP is at seat 7 with $271.50.
CAREER_LOSING_LAG is at seat 8 with $53.50.
Hero is at seat 9 with $291.
The button is at seat 1.

UNKNOWN1 posts the small blind of $1.
SEEMS_GOODISH posts the big blind of $3.
Hero: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Pre-flop:

1 folds. COMPLETELY_UNKNOWN calls. 2 folds.
Hero calls. 3 folds. SEEMS_GOODISH checks.

Flop (board: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]): (3 1/3 SBs)
(3 players)

SEEMS_GOODISH checks. COMPLETELY_UNKNOWN bets $3.
Hero raises to $6. SEEMS_GOODISH folds.
COMPLETELY_UNKNOWN re-raises to $9.
Hero re-raises to $12. COMPLETELY_UNKNOWN calls.

Turn (board: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]): (11 SBs) (2 players)

COMPLETELY_UNKNOWN bets $6. Hero raises to $12.COMPLETELY_UNKNOWN calls.


River (board: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]): (9.5 BBs) (2 players)

COMPLETELY_UNKNOWN checks.
Hero ????



River... he is unknown to me... value bet here or check behind.

My thoughs are he can have:

flush draw played to fast
AK
AQ
set

I lose to at least 50% of those... and I think in this order he is holding AQ, AK, set, flush draw..... my reads at least...

Re: Speculative Ax suited.. River decision with position?
 

Pre-flop I like a raise. If you were in earlier position I might try to limp to encourage a nice family pot, but you're two off the button, and there's a presumed tight player in the big blind. Raise it to try to get heads-up against the limper. Your hand should do well against an unknown limper's range.

Postflop's a little strange. I think you should bet this river if you raise the turn, and I think raising the turn is the right move. A lot (most?) opponents would have raised pre-flop with all of the hands that beat you. And since he's unknown, he may be overplaying a random ace or some two pair. Anyway, the river card changed very little. Yeah, he probably won't pay you off if he was on a draw, but he might anyway as the pot's getting big. And if he was pumping a pair and a draw, he probably will pay you off. I think his most likely hand is AcXc.

All in all, I think you're giving too much respect to a random player.

Re: Speculative Ax suited.. River decision with position?
 

I don't know... maybe you're right but that is why I posted this... I could hear arguments for a PF raise.... and some % of the time I raise this if a spot or two in later position... and definatly without the EPish limper.

UB is way tighter and closer to the vest than sights like Party.... so play seems more "normal"... there are less LAGs.. less maniacs.... at least in my opinion... and to me is seems overwhelmingly TAG... if you rated the sight.. where party would be LAG.... as a whole.....

But... your reasoning sounds.... we'll... very sound. There was no raise out of him PF.. so the hands I was originally afraid of don't make any sense to me any more... AK AQ would be raised... AA, QQ raise... 99... maybe not? But I like you're line of thinking.. I think you're right.. I'm ahead most often enough to make a value bet on the river the proper action.

Blind was I!