Pay off this river c/r?
 

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

I only had approx. twenty-five hands on both the SB and UTG+1, but already both seemed loose-passive/fishy preflop, although I didn't have a good read on either's post-flop play. BB is TP-A. MP1 is LA-P. No read on the button.

Preflop: chesspain is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">chesspain raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">chesspain bets</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: (8.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">chesspain bets</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">chesspain bets</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, chesspain...

Re: Pay off this river c/r?
 

I don't see what he would check-raise with that you beat.

Re: Pay off this river c/r?
 

Hey chesspain,

The river value bet itself is already really thin when it's 4 handed on the river so this seems like a ridiculously easy fold. You have middle pair and there's an A on the board, this is almost never going to be a bluff.

Re: Pay off this river c/r?
 

First post, so...

My guess is you are either looking at a guy who slowplayed a set, slowplayed the ace on the turn, or hit two pair with the river. I'm not sure how you win the hand. It's a decent sized pot, but do you think you win 1 in 12 here?

I'm probably calling because I am stubborn.

Re: Pay off this river c/r?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's a decent sized pot, but do you think you win 1 in 12 here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, the pot is up to 15.5BB after the checkraise.

Re: Pay off this river c/r?
 

This either makes me more right, or more dumb. Okay maybe both.

Re: Pay off this river c/r?
 

Fold.

Now if I played the hand, I check the river. I dont see it as a value bet, but Id hear any arguments that say otherwise.

Re: Pay off this river c/r?
 

I don't mind the river bet. I see a weaker king, a smaller pocket pair, a pair of 8s or 4s paying you off here. Remember, the larger the pot, the thinner your value bets can be because you're more likely to be paid off.

Re: Pay off this river c/r?
 

might be one of those folds where you start wanting to choke the neareast thing. I really don't see what you're beating here, especially givewn the sketch of a read on the sb here, no way does he do this with something that you can beat

Re: Pay off this river c/r?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Fold.

Now if I played the hand, I check the river. I dont see it as a value bet, but Id hear any arguments that say otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see a value bet, and if somebody else bets, there's no way in hell I'm overcalling. Moozh says value bets can be really thin, but this is a really big field, and that lowers whatever value bet expectation you might have. This is the easiest river fold I can think of.