The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

Commerce 40/80

Button is relatively unknown to me, but has been quiet. BB is a regular who is sorta tight, not very aggressive, the kind of guy you raise the turn when you have 2pair+ and he reliably pays you off with his top pair, but you get no more than 3BB from him ever if that's all he has.

I open with KK in MP. Button coldcalls, BB calls. 3 players.

Flop is AK2 rainbow. Check; I bet; call, BB checkraises; I call; Button calls.

Turn 2. The BB hesitates and checks. I bet. Button calls. BB checkraises again.

The deuce must have helped him. I get it in my head he has A2. But I wouldn't mind another bet from the button so I call. Button folds [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

River Jack. He bets, I raise, he 3bets. I am still on track with the A2 read. There is no way possible he called the BB with AA. I 4bet. He 5bets in the most spazzy way possible, like he cut 4 stacks but they are 6chips, 2chips, 3chips, and 5chips high.

Am I allowed to fold?

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

Fold face up too, so they realize what a great player you are and so everyone can pat you on the back about the sick read you just made.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

I put him on 22 and call because my balls are too tiny to make this lay down.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

no dont fold for one bet at commerce. ever.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

Given your read, it seems impossible that you could win. He doesn't sound like the type to give this much action with just 2s full, since you could easily have aces, kings, or jacks to beat him. What's he 5-betting the river with? The nuts. Maybe there's an outside chance that he got tricky with aces.

Of course, I am giving full weight to your read of his style being dead on. If you have any doubt about your read, then call.

good luck.
Eric

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

"Maybe there's an outside chance that he got tricky with aces."

you guys are all ignoring the almost more probable chance the guy has 22.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

No

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

You're probably beat, but call. For the love of God raise the turn.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

Sa125's statement can end the thread.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
"Maybe there's an outside chance that he got tricky with aces."

you guys are all ignoring the almost more probable chance the guy has 22.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mike, I hope by "you guys" you aren't including me, despite your replying to me, and quoting me, because right before the line you quote, I say

[ QUOTE ]
What's he 5-betting the river with? The nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know this is tricky because I don't say 22 explicitly, but I'd expect a great poker mind like yours to be able to decipher this complicated sentence. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-Eric

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sa125's statement can end the thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks rookie. Now that you say so, I guess we can all go to sleep. Never mind that it makes absolutely no sense for this player to hold any hand you beat.

-Eric

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
I get it in my head he has A2.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

River Jack. He bets, I raise

[/ QUOTE ]

Awesome!

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

I say put in a 6th bet then fold for a 7th bet. At this point you can be abolutely sure of your read.

-ActionBob

an objective look at the hand
 

First of all, I did not fold, though I thought about it.

Let's say that the only hands he could have are AA, A2, and 22. He would only play AA this way 10% of the time preflop, but A2 and 22 he would always call with a 3rd person in.

By the river there are 6 ways he could have A2, 3 ways he could have AA, and 1 way he could have 22.

I think this guy would 3bet my river raise with A2 50% of the time, and every time with AA and 22.

{Note I didn't really error check this but I think it's right}

AA: 10% * 3 * 100% = 0.3
A2: 100% * 6 * 50% = 3.0
22: 100% * 1 * 100% = 1.0

I have the best hand 3/4.3 = 70% of the time so I should 4-bet.

Now he 5-bets. How often does he need to do this with A2 for me to call? It turns out the answer is 1.1% of the time:

AA: 10% * 3 * 100% = 0.3
A2: 100% * 6 * 1.1% = 0.066
22: 100% * 1 * 100% = 1.0

0.066/1.366 = 4.8% chance of winning.

So a fold would have been pretty terrible.

He had 22.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

I don't get it.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I get it in my head he has A2.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

River Jack. He bets, I raise

[/ QUOTE ]

Awesome!

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you folding A2 to a river raise here?

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

maybe you should have just called on the river. but since you did raise and he three bet why on earth did you four bet that hand.
maybe instead of trying to make some star play folding in a big pot, try thinking about how it got so big with you having the worst hand.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

sorry didnt read carefully.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

"why on earth did you four bet that hand"

I thought A2 was still in his range. For what it's worth, after the hand he told his buddy "I don't think I needed that extra 2", so he had me on AK, and therefore would have 3bet with A2. It is 6 times more likely for him to hold A2 vs. 22 on this board.

Re: an objective look at the hand
 

Ryno, your read in the post is that this guy is pretty passive once an opponent raises once. In this hand, you 4-bet the river and he is 5-betting. You think he is making a thin value 5-bet with the 5th nuts here? That's totally inconsistent with your description of the guy's playing style, and this is a player you claim to know well as a regular.

Even if he only needs to do this 1% of the time he holds A2, a fold is still good if he'll actually do it 0%. In fact, if he'll do it 0%, calling is a full 1 BB mistake.

good luck.
Eric

Re: an objective look at the hand
 

"How often does he need to do this with A2 for me to call? It turns out the answer is 1.1% of the time"

thanks. i was starting to think this is really one of those threads with no point.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

he could have meant: "on the flop, i didn't think i needed the other 2."

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
"why on earth did you four bet that hand"

I thought A2 was still in his range. For what it's worth, after the hand he told his buddy "I don't think I needed that extra 2", so he had me on AK, and therefore would have 3bet with A2. It is 6 times more likely for him to hold A2 vs. 22 on this board.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hand do you think he read you for on the flop? AK? If so why then why is he checkraising with A2? Do you think your bet on the turn convinced him you had AK? I don't get it unless you believe your bet on the turn convinced him you had AK. I'm perfectly willing to believe that the BB was narrow minded enough to put you on AK and not entertain the possibility of AA or KK but I'm not sure why you believe he put you on AK for certain. I think what Gabe stated was probably true.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

raise/4bet the turn. call down swearing after that.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

At the moment you fourbet the river, if you were doing anything with your mind other than anticipating a fivebet, then you misplayed the hand.

If you had been totally focused on him and the hand, then you would have had a chance to fold. Because you weren't ready, you had to start all over, and that allowed a lifetime of thinking and worrying to creep in and ruin everything you had worked for.

It's okay and normal to be unprepared to play when you have pocket kings and you make kings full and somebody else is raising too. When you can silence the cards and money, at the very moment when they are screaming loudest at you, then you can fold in peace.


Tommy

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

gay.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

"It's okay and normal to be unprepared to play when you have pocket kings and you make kings full and somebody else is raising too."

Unprepared is an understatement. I had never lost quads over FH before. I don't believe I'd been 5-bet on the river before either. Your read on the situation is excellent.

But I think PokerPrince makes a good point.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

[ QUOTE ]

Unprepared is an understatement. I had never lost quads over FH before.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow. i did it twice last month.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

You probably ran into quad two's. If that's what he's got, then oh well. No way I'm folding kings-full on the river. I'd pay it off with no regrets. What I might regret however, was how I came to 4 bet a "not very aggressive" player on the river with the 3rd nuts.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

I'm not sure I'll hit 50,000 hands this year (I play mostly live, and the online I do play is 1 to 2 tables shorthanded). I think The Metetron and MicroBob played more hands than this in the last 3 days.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I'll hit 50,000 hands this year (I play mostly live, and the online I do play is 1 to 2 tables shorthanded). I think The Metetron and MicroBob played more hands than this in the last 3 days.

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both my "set-over-set-he-turns-quads-beats" happened live. sometimes i run bad.