So the pot is laying me 860 to 1...
 

Both villains are mostly unknown. Neither has done anything particularly noteworthy over the 10 or 15 hands I've seen.

A few hands earlier (or was it last hand?) BB 3-bet me out of the SB with 77, so we know she's capable of pre-flop aggression.

They're both shortstacked, so we know they're not that good.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

I will often cap here. At the moment, I wasn't so confident in my folding equity and I decided to see the flop for 3 bets instead.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>...

I think I probably should have raised this initial bet. But again, I had recently made a move against BB that had been snapped off (with the aforementioned 77) and I was pretty sure I needed to make a hand to win this and figured I might as well see what developed. Ok, I admit it, I was feeling greedy too.

...Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Ok, now I figure there's some chance I might be up against a flopped flush and 3 Queens. I really hope the river doesn't pair after I turn a diamond!

Turn: (10.70 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>...

Both players are now down to their last bets. Well, you can't bluff someone who's all in...

...Hero calls, CO calls $2 (All-In).

I really hope the diamond I'm about to river isn't the 6...

River: (12.90 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $0.15 (All-In)</font> and Hero makes a crying call using this:

http://www.decisionproblem.com/weep.jpg

Final Pot: 12.93 BB

I'm not crazy about how I played the rest of this hand, but I'm pretty sure this call is seriously +EV. <font color="white">Can you guess the surprise ending?</font>

/mc

Re: So the pot is laying me 860 to 1...
 

I think a PF cap and flop raise should both be automatic given the situations. No room for metagame stuff. Nice river call.

Re: So the pot is laying me 860 to 1...
 

fold the river, I don't think you are good here often enough. You need to be winning 0.1% of the time for this call to be +EV

Re: So the pot is laying me 860 to 1...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think a PF cap and flop raise should both be automatic given the situations. No room for metagame stuff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I went tharn.

/mc

Re: So the pot is laying me 860 to 1...
 

you dont cap PF for folding equity, you do it for value

Re: So the pot is laying me 860 to 1...
 

my two cents:

the river is -EV (i don't care if it's 860-1), though it may be close. (joke might as well call)

raising the turn all-in is +EV.

Re: So the pot is laying me 860 to 1...
 

[ QUOTE ]
my two cents:

the river is -EV (i don't care if it's 860-1), though it may be close.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're kidding, right? You realize, of course, that I dragged this pot. I know results don't matter and everything, but still the fact that it did happen means that it can happen!

[ QUOTE ]
raising the turn all-in is +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I see that. How do you figure?

/mc

Re: So the pot is laying me 860 to 1...
 

what if it was a full bet to u, do u call the river?

Re: So the pot is laying me 860 to 1...
 

[ QUOTE ]

You're kidding, right? You realize, of course, that I dragged this pot. I know results don't matter and everything, but still the fact that it did happen means that it can happen!

[/ QUOTE ]

technically speaking, it doesn't mean that it happens as often as 1/860 of the time. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] good job dragging it though.

[ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I see that. How do you figure?


[/ QUOTE ]

you are still drawing to the nuts, and you are asked to put in 1.015 BB. if calling is +EV, then raising is as well.

Re: So the pot is laying me 860 to 1...
 

[ QUOTE ]
what if it was a full bet to u, do u call the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Alas, no. But at 860:1 I would have called with Jack high (Jack high!)... and won.

/mc