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12-20-2005 10:09 PM

Deal or No Deal
 
(Rules here)

I thought it would be interesting to note that the "Banker" on the show captalizes on the player's risk aversion. So far, the Banker seems to use 25% less than the arithmetic mean as it's offer.

Daniture 12-21-2005 04:54 AM

Re: Deal or No Deal
 
I noticed they low balled every single bank offer some by amounts so much its ridiculous. I think tonight they offered some guy like 90k or there abouts and i was figuring the EV of the remaining cases was 150k or something think there were 8 or 9 cases left? Then they make a big production or whether he should play on or stop. At that point i think it was a pretty easy decision to continue on atleast for me since there was some insurance in having 3 large numbers left and only having to take 2 out.

It does get interesting though once you're down to the last few cases though because thats the point where the swings are likely to be the largest and theres some "real money" involved. I probably would have stopped at 240k cause that was the closest i had seen the banker to paying true odds(302.5k) and unless i picked the 1 10k case left the offer was likely to only go down.

Basically my strategy would be a combination of the straight up odds and playing to try and guarentee the maximum win rather then maximizing my value. I personally liked the first guys friend who kept saying you do or do not have the odds anymore even though he didn't have a clue as to the odds he was refering too.


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