Hillary for president at 6:1
 

I found Hillary at +600 for being president next term, and after going through online and seeing a bunch of stuff and what people think about her chances of running and so on and so forth, I really think this might be a good bet. But I don't know exactly what goes into running and winning and how likely it is that something will make her not run, or not win (though if she runs, I can't imagine she won't win). Anybody who is good with props have any advice on Hillary at +600? I think it's +EV, but I don't have much experience in getting a true value for this type of thing.

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

you might want to post this in sports betting.

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

It could be good value. Where'd you find this?

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

You should only take this bet so that you can lay it off with better odds immediately following the Democratic convevtion. Her true odds of ever winning are probably closer to 15 to 1. Also you need to be sure there is no action if she doesn't even run or loses the Democratic nomination.

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

[ QUOTE ]
You should only take this bet so that you can lay it off with better odds immediately following the Democratic convevtion. Her true odds of ever winning are probably closer to 15 to 1. Also you need to be sure there is no action if she doesn't even run or loses the Democratic nomination.

[/ QUOTE ]

Her true odds are probably 30:1, she's not a bad candidate but equality hasn't come that far, being a woman is a huge handicap.

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also you need to be sure there is no action if she doesn't even run or loses the Democratic nomination.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, I guarantee all bets have action regardless.

Jeff

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

I give it 10:1 that Barrack Obama wins it in 2012.

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

Sounds to me like the big winner here is the bookie, who can sell both sides of this bet today and then hold your money interest free for three full years.

As for the actual odds...6:1 is about where I'd expect her chances to be if she actually gets the nomination and is up against any of the usual male republican suspects.

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

My analysis:

At Pinnacle, she's +109 to get the nomination, and the Democrats are -106 to win the election. (I'm going to be sort of thinking of these as +100 each because I'm doing the calculations in my head.)

Now we can't just multiply probabilities and conclude she's about 3-1 to win the presidency, because the two events are not independent. However, if 6-1 is a fair price, then it means Hillary is about 30% to win the presidency if nominated. (50% x 30% = 15% which is about 6-1.)

Then, because the Dems are -106 to win the presidency, this means non-Hillary Dems must have around a 70% chance of winning the presidency if nominated.

If you think other Democrats would actually be this much stronger than Hillary, it's a bad bet. If you don't think so, then it's a good bet.

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

I'd fade that bet, myself. I see her as a double-digit dog.